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the us open men's field -155 over nadal to win the final
i know rafa has been a man possessed since the french, but he has never been past the 4th round at the us open, i'm pretty sure, i like this wager a lot, -155 that nadal does NOT win the us open
you get the whole field, and as long as djokovic is part of 'the field' i like my chances, murray also playing very well, cant believe i'm not mentioning federer but he's obviously not a factor any more, maybe karlovic, del potro, etc will also make a run
thoughts?
betting against nadal is suicide
He will never win the US Open. Not his type of court. It is an all n bet far as I am concerned.Originally Posted by pat venditto
Federer is the only real play here, other than longshot type of bets. We'll discuss it more tonight, just have to run out for 20 minutes.
i respectfully disagree, CrazyL, which does sound kinda crazy 'cause you know fed is my boy. i think better play-ons than fed right now are djoko and murray, both at decent + odds.
i believe the best play-against is nadal because it's in the 100s, while playing against fed or djoko to win it all will cost in the high 200s or even 300s
It's important not to let the recent results affect judgment here, don't examine his recent form, instead examine the price offered on him, and take a look at his history in this tournament the last four years. Where'd he finish?
Now compare that to Nadal's (the odds on favorite) track record at this event. Look at Andy Murray, coming off some of the best tennis he's ever played in his life, can he follow through here, is he ready for that? All I'm looking at is the price offered, and hoping the form is there, because if most of it is, that price on Fed's far too good to pass up. And the bottom line is, Djokovic is overrated and a mental choker.
i like your line of thinking, which is why you make a handsome annual profit on tennis and i do not even wager on it very often,
if i had to pick between betting djoko or fed, though, i would bet djoko right now. they are on the same side of the draw and would meet in the semis i believe. therefore, i would bet one or the other.
i like betting against a guy at -155 more than i like betting on a few guys at +odds. i believe this us open is pretty wide open, so having to pinpoint one player amongst all of the quality hardcourters is very tough, imho. that's why i think going w/the -155 vs nadal is the way to go, mainly because of his track record there as you referenced
GL these next 2 wks, CrazyL, i hope you and the others here at SBR make some nice coin
this is what i would call very lazy 'capping. look at his track record in grand slams played on hard court (aussie and us opens) and please tell me that you think this is a bad bet
tons of pressure on him now as the #1 player in the world who won the wimbledon for the first time and the gold medal in the oly's.
to now have to go to flushing meadow where he has never excelled and to win the whole enchilada, is really asking a lot of him right now, imho
I just remember how Nadal took down Federer in the early 2000s... When Federer faces Nadal Federer's all court genius stand in the way by Nadal. That was one of the great scene he served consecutive aces from duece.
He's only won the past three major tournaments......
i know you're a sharp dude but this is way too simplistic. let's examine your statement a bit closer..
He's only won the past three major tournaments......
nadal won the french, but what's new? he won wimbledon in a 5-set thriller which most observers had called the greatest match in history. in other words, it couldve gone either way. lastly, nadal won the gold at the olympics, and i hardly consider the olympics a "major tournament".
consider that in 2004 when the olympics began in athens, federer had already begun his rise as the most dominant player in tennis, having won 3 slams in one calendar yr up to the pt the oly's began (03 wimbledon, 04 aussie, 04 wimbledon), and went on to win the 04 us open right after the 04 olympics commenced. i'd say it's clear that fed was the greatest tennis player on earth at the pt in time the oly's began in '04, yet he lost to berdych in the 2nd round. berdych is not bad, but is not a household name.
last pt, the 04 olympic gold was won by nicolas massu, the silver by mardi fish, and the bronze by fernando gonzalez. the first 2 guys i mentioned havent won shit in their lives, and the 3rd guy has made just one grand slam final in his life.
translation: the olympics don't mean shit
so all of you who are so afraid to bet against nadal, i suggest you bet nadal to win the us open right now because as he advances through the field, your odds will get worse and worse. right now is the only chance you can get him at +odds, so load up my tennis genius friends who have a thoughtless opinion. load up and follow the herd............................
I agree, you know I'm searching for every angle to find value here, but by the same token is Fed (or even your boy Novak) doesn't win this, it'll be Nadal.i know you're a sharp dude but this is way too simplistic. let's examine your statement a bit closer..
nadal won the french, but what's new? he won wimbledon in a 5-set thriller which most observers had called the greatest match in history. in other words, it couldve gone either way. lastly, nadal won the gold at the olympics, and i hardly consider the olympics a "major tournament".
consider that in 2004 when the olympics began in athens, federer had already begun his rise as the most dominant player in tennis, having won 3 slams in one calendar yr up to the pt the oly's began (03 wimbledon, 04 aussie, 04 wimbledon), and went on to win the 04 us open right after the 04 olympics commenced. i'd say it's clear that fed was the greatest tennis player on earth at the pt in time the oly's began in '04, yet he lost to berdych in the 2nd round. berdych is not bad, but is not a household name.
last pt, the 04 olympic gold was won by nicolas massu, the silver by mardi fish, and the bronze by fernando gonzalez. the first 2 guys i mentioned havent won shit in their lives, and the 3rd guy has made just one grand slam final in his life.
translation: the olympics don't mean shit
so all of you who are so afraid to bet against nadal, i suggest you bet nadal to win the us open right now because as he advances through the field, your odds will get worse and worse. right now is the only chance you can get him at +odds, so load up my tennis genius friends who have a thoughtless opinion. load up and follow the herd............................
I just want to weigh in here given that I spent the week getting sunburned at the open watching these guys practice (and watching the qualifiers).
Nadal isn't expected to face a real test until the octofinals against Berdych or Karlovic. Neither of them should like their chances against Nadal in a five set match as both would wear down. In the quarters he might face Blake, Nalbandian, or perhaps Monfils. Interesting matchups, but I can't see any of those guys taking Nadal down unless he is tired. Nalbandian isn't the monster he used to be, otherwise I would be more intrigued here.
The expectation in the semis is Murray or Ferrer. In other words, Rafa is expected to reach the finals. Del Potro in the semi's would be an awesome match.
As for the finals, Fed, Djoker, or someone who pulls an amazing run out of their ass. Depending on how Federer or Djokovic looks Nadal could be a small to not so small favorite. I'd say the field should be favored over Rafa, but I wouoldn't go overboard. The best player wins more often thn not in mens tennis.
Last edited by Wheell; 08-25-08 at 01:24 AM.
So since Federer couldn't win Gold in Olympic singles, it's not an important tournament? That's the stinkiest BS I've ever read in my life.
I guess the French Open isn't an important tournament either since he's never won that either.
If he's above the Olympics why was he jumping up and down like a giddy schoolgirl after he and Wawrinka won the doubles Gold?
You need to get your head out of Federer's ass and stop thinking the tennis world still revolves around him. It no longer does.
I mean being a fan is one thing but being blind, deaf and dumb is another. I'm the biggest Djokovic fan here but I'm always the first to bash him when he isn't playing well. I keep it real.... wish you would too, someday.
the french 'silver medalist' the past 3 yrs has been federer, the 'gold' obviously nadal. the oly's '04 were won by massu and the silver was mardi fish. i repeat: MASSU and FISH. are you kidding me? this yr, the silver went to gonzo, a guy who also won the bronze in '04 yet has only been to one grand slam final in his career. are you freaking kidding me??I guess the French Open isn't an important tournament either since he's never won that either.
I mean being a fan is one thing but being blind, deaf and dumb is another. I'm the biggest Djokovic fan here but I'm always the first to bash him when he isn't playing well. I keep it real.... wish you would too, someday.
i am keeping it real, believe me. i am probably the biggest rafa fan you'll ever meet and without a doubt the biggest one here at this forum as i have been anticipating his rise in tennis since i first heard about him when he was a 15 yr old amateur. that was 7 yrs ago and well before the latest bandwagoners jumped on the nadal train. i am also a huge fan of federer.
i just dont think you can put the oly's on the same level as the grand slams. massu, and mardi fish, come on man
Again, why is the importance of a tournament determined by how far Federer has advanced in it? Maybe the reason Federer can't win the Gold is because he can't handle the pressure of representing his country. Maybe others' level of play rises because they are representing their country. Who the hell knows? But to claim the Olympics isn't important because your boy hasn't come lose to winning it is beyond retarded.
Ask any professional athlete, that has won a gold, which they treasure the most: Olympic gold or championships. They will say the Olympics because it signifies that they are the best in the world.
Maybe someday Roger will win the Olympics and the French Open. Maybe then they will become major tournaments in your delusional eyes.
And claiming to be #1 Nadal fan so as to prove your objectivity is completely laughable. You are a delusional Federer fan, and you keep proving it by defending him endlessly, even though he has won less titles than even Del Potro. If you want to prove your objectivity, say something negative about your god, Federer. Not kiss his ass every minute of your life.
Right now the median odds for Nadal winning the US Open is around +125. So -155 for the field is a bit high. I would try to get better odds on an exchange for this bet by placing a bid on the Nadal to lose line.
to daggerkobe
wow, you must hate federer or a lot which is why you have something against me personally, or maybe i kicked your ass with my basketball picks (both ncaa tourney and the nba) which is why you have a problem with me. you were probably one of the lemmings on the lakers who could not see clearly (like i could) that the celtics were gonna crush them, and i posted it here BEFORE the finals tipped off. also picked kansas over memphis BEFORE the ncaa tourney even started. i'm guessing the ncaa tourney and nba finals destroyed your BR.
anyhow..
please show me where i said that the olympics dont matter because fed hasn't won. i do think it's interesting that in a stretch where he won 4 slams out of 5 in a calendar yr + a few months, that he lost to berdych in the 2nd round of the olympics in '04 in athens. i also find it interesting that massu has a gold and fish has a silver. if that doesnt look funny to you then you dont know shit about tennis, son, and i am wasting my time discussing it with you.
here is something negative about roger: he is a stubborn fool right now for not hiring a coach. tony roche came in and helped his game so much that he made his first french final vs. nadal. the moment federer lost to karlovic, right after losing to simon, he should have hired a guy like gilbert, or perhaps even mcenroe, to come in and give him some advice. shit, even hire a consultant.
anyhow, if i am a federer lover, than you are a federer hater. there's really no difference. to be such a fan of an athlete that you can't criticize him, or to hate an athlete so much you cannot give him any credit and see the clear differences in the '04 oly results vs. the grand slams, then again, you are beneath myself and many others here in tennis intellect
Now I'm jealous of you because of your "NBA & CBB" picks?????Wow, you are mental.
Dude, you need to step away from the computer and go get some fresh air. Anyone reading your comments know you're clearly not dealing in reality. You're bonkers.
Just because Federer hasn't won at the Olympics, it's not an important tournament. That is what you said. Which is beyond nuts. You don't think he'd gladly trade some of his Grand Slam titles for an Olympic singles gold? How about he lost because Berdy played better than him? Nooooooooooooo, that would mean your god has flaws. Just like all the excuses you've made for him all year. No one has beaten Federer.... he lost them all on his own.
I don't "hate" Federer. I just know he's no longer the dominant player that he once was. Anyone can clearly see this, except you.
if berdych had beaten federer in 2008, i would say berdych was better. but for berdych to have beaten federer in 2004 at the a time when fed was just turning 23 yrs young and beginning to peak? no, sorry, federer did not care back then about that tourney, and judging from the medal winners in 2004, no one else really cared eitherNow I'm jealous of you because of your "NBA & CBB" picks?????
Dude, you need to step away from the computer and go get some fresh air. Anyone reading your comments know you're clearly not dealing in reality. You're bonkers.
Just because Federer hasn't won at the Olympics, it's not an important tournament. That is what you said. Which is beyond nuts. You don't think he'd gladly trade some of his Grand Slam titles for an Olympic singles gold? How about he lost because Berdy played better than him? Nooooooooooooo, that would mean your god has flaws. Just like all the excuses you've made for him all year. No one has beaten Federer.... he lost them all on his own.
I don't "hate" Federer. I just know he's no longer the dominant player that he once was. Anyone can clearly see this, except you.
go look up the grand slam history results, and take a peek at this chronological order: look at wimbledon 2003, then look at the aussie 2004, then look at wimbledon 2004, then look at the olympics 2004, then look at us open 2004
it reads like this: federer champion, federer champion, federer champion, federer loses to berdych, federer champion. the guy wins 4 out of 5 grand slams (only lost french in '04) with the olympics right in between them, but yeah, he cared
if you don't think that federer losing to berdych was a complete aberration, then your sports IQ is about 50, tops
for fed to lose to berdych back then, he had to pretty much not give a shit, berdych is nothing, has never been anything, and again, the 2004 gold medalist was nicolas massu, the silver medalist was mardi fish, the bronze was fern gonzalez
you have been owned, and proven that you dont know shit about tennis, i will no longer address sports morons like you
I said many days ago ... take a peak at Del Potro ... this kid is coming strong and could become an upset for many gamblers.
i remember you did say that, weeks ago, shark. he is definitely one to watch, but my concern is that he has never advanced deep at a grand slam (i know he's only 19 so he hasnt had many chances yet), and i believe the only big-name opponent he beat along this great winning streak was roddick, i could be wrong, anyhow, i agree with you that he might make a run, but i think perhaps 4th round might be it for him? i don't know, if he can handle the pressure of the big matches, he certainly has the talent to get it done and go deep into this tourney,
also, tsonga is back and seemingly healthy, the aussie open 08 finalist who crushed rafa in the semis over in melbourne, murray is rising quickly, wouldnt surprise me if querrey made a bit of a run either, karlovic looked great vs fed, but a lot of ppl have looked great vs fed lately, hahaha
I believe that if he wants to achieve what Rafa did, it is the time for him to step up. This younger kids are faster and way more aggressive, if he worked on his mentality for this tourney ... I see him playing the finals.
Tsonga is another great player ... 100% Healthy, could be worrying for many other opponents.
Federer lost 6 MATCHES in 2004 (12 in 2008). Were they all "aberrations"?
At the Olympics he lost to an up and coming teenager in Berdych who had won 4 titles that year and destined for top 10 ranking. It's not like he lost to a special olympics athlete.
But that's not the point..... you claiming Olympics isn't a major tournament is so beyond stupid, it borders on lunacy. Not to mention you believing Roger not wanting to win gold for his country is further proof of your mental state. And here's why:
ROGER FEDERER GAVE UP A CHANCE TO WIN A MASTERS TOURNAMENT TO COMPETE AT THE 2004 OLYMPICS!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah, that sure sounds like someone who doesn't give a s.hit about the Olympics.
I guess they should downgrade the French Open to 2nd tier tournament since Roger hasn't won the "gold" because he's just happy with a "silver."
YOU ARE A LUNATIC AND EVERYONE CAN CLEARLY SEE THIS. But what do I expect from someone who talks about tennis 24/7 but doesn't have the balls to bet it. You would think someone who believes in Roger and loves him so much would bet him occasional but you know deep inside that he sucks, which is preventing you from wasting your money on him. Good thing, since you would've lost all the money on the 2 bets you made all year and then some.
But then again, you wouldn't be as crazy as you are had you bet. Because every Federer supporter that bets now realize he's washed up also.
Please go see a psychiatrist.
Last edited by daggerkobe; 08-25-08 at 12:16 PM.
A lot of us realized that in 2007 when he beat some good players.
Took him to beat Roddick couple weeks ago at +185.
Weigh in..
I also like Roger Federer to win in the open. While his record has been dismal (for him) this year all around if you isolate the Grand Slams i believe he has seen 2 finals and a semi, he seems to know when to turn it on when necessary in these contests.
I also agree that Del Potro will provide some easy early round picks (perhaps at a good price) but I don't see him making it to deep into the tournament b/c of his age and inexperience.
Finally, after seeing him win his opening round match I like Monfils advancing to the 1/4s where he will lose to Nadal. He has a new "discipline trainer" which he had to personally convince he was ready to commit his emotional, physical etc. energy to tennis and tennis only, a good sign. Should be easy pickings against the mentally weak Blake or Mathieu.
Oh and for what it's worth I don't believe the Olympics is a major tennis tournament. After a 60+ year hiatus from the Olympic games the tennis tournament was added... And I'm not sure how much longer it will last... Simply put a gold medal is not worth the time...
Just my $.02, flame away.
Last edited by Boner_18; 08-25-08 at 12:42 PM.
Welcome Hoopster ghost.
Oh and for what it's worth I don't believe the Olympics is a major tennis tournament. After a 60+ year hiatus from the Olympic games the tennis tournament was added... And I'm not sure how much longer it will last... Simply put a gold medal is not worth the time...
Oh yes, I'll bet those gold medalists at trampoline, baseball, and other "hiatus" and "recently added" sports aren't as proud of their medals as other medalists from long time events.
i'm surprised at how many ppl in here really think federer has a shot to win, if he wasnt in the same half of the bracket as djoko i could see him making one last run to a slam final, but i just dont see it, hope i'm wrong obviously, but i see the federer talk as just 'crazy talk', pun intended to our own 'CrazyL', lol
Don't forget this will be the first time in a tournament that Nadal will not be selecting his own wardrobe, Nike is looking to make him relatable to an older American crowd! His inability to play with sleeves will surely be his downfall!!
Roger has less pressure on him now , so he will step up once again and win.
and berdych gets his ass kicked by young up and comer querrey, too funny, that guy has never lived up to his 'billing'
just cashed this winner
at least something went right today, LOL
WINNER
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