[hoopster42]

even over 500000 hands, there is prolly still more than 1% luck

[Dark Horse]

To reach the final table in the WSOP you need to beat a few thousand other players first. Of course you need luck for that.

But in a regular game the pros will clean you out. Any beginner can win a few hands, just as a beginning sports bettor can beat a pro on a game by game basis. But if that beginner could see the background and depth of knowledge of the pro he would probably just get up and run.

In the short run it could be 90% luck. In the long run, no luck at all.

[Bullajami]

even over 500000 hands, there is prolly still more than 1% luck

If you are net up or net down after 500,000 hands, it has almost nothing to do with luck.

[Dark Horse]

Luck and skill are not opposites.

Luck is a short term fluctuation that produces results beyond the skill level.

It is inevitably balanced out by bad luck, the short term fluctuation that produces results below the skill level.

In the end the only thing that matters is skill. The danger of luck is that it may make us think that we have more skill than we do. The positive side of bad luck is that it forces us to improve our skill.

[WVU]

90% of the players who play have 90% of the skill that the pros have. It is not like the pros have the hidden secrets. To say poker is 90% skill is crazy if you illiminate common poker skills.

My answer 10% "True" skill and 90% luck

[Dark Horse]

90% of the players who play have 90% of the skill that the pros have.

That can't be true. More likely that is what amateurs like to tell themselves. They may share the same basics, but finetuning to expert level is the hardest in any field.

[hoopster42]

the long-time pros only have one thing working for them over the start ups, and that is experience. the youngsters and other new guys have the math and theory down. of course experience is a huge thing, as it helps in reading players because you've seen it all on the felt

[Robyn]

I just learned how to play poker about 7 months ago and I have already won 2 tournaments and placed second in another.

Beginners luck? Not sure.

I also spit a beer on a dealer this past Christmas Eve during a tournament at the Hard Rock casino because someone made me laugh.

[hoopster42]

if you arent rich but try to get rich too quick in poker, you will prolly go broke, but if you go with good skills and a good money management system and dont push all-in all the time, you will prolly be up over the long run of 500000 hands. so basically, if u try and be a pro and you have skills and a good starting broll, you should be okay as long as you dont go crazy all the time just because you think you have the best hand. you wont survive the bad beats i dont think

[Dark Horse]

the long-time pros only have one thing working for them over the start ups, and that is experience. the youngsters and other new guys have the math and theory down. of course experience is a huge thing, as it helps in reading players because you've seen it all on the felt

Fair enough. Add experience to skill and luck.

Experience allows someone to recognize the right course of action quickly. That recognition, in any field of strategy, precedes the use of skill or technique. So you can have all the skill in the world, but if it isn't backed by experience you won't be able to access it effectively and efficiently.

[WVU]

That can't be true. More likely that is what amateurs like to tell themselves. They may share the same basics, but finetuning to expert level is the hardest in any field.

yes and there lies the 10%

[donjuan]

The positive side of bad luck is that it forces us to improve our skill.

Sometimes it does, but if you aren't careful and don't analyze properly you could change something that you are actually doing well simply because you are unlucky.

[mannyx7]

Some of you guys have it right, you can't really say in exact percentages how much of poker is luck and how much is skill, but skill does predominate luck widely. Luck is simply a result of chance, something the player cannot control. Last time I checked poker is still gambling. When we play poker we are betting on three things that we cannot control as players and they are: 1. the cards we are dealt 2. the cards that are to come 3. and most important the course of action our opponents take. However, we can influence our opponents actions and that's where the skill comes in as well as playing the math. Everything in this world is measured in numbers, Poker is no different. If one played an infinite number of hands they would eventually lose with quad kings against quad Aces, everything is possible over the long run. good players get there money in as favorites most of the time with the odds on their side, leaving their opponents lesser chance to beat them. when they are behind in a hand they can outplay their opponents when they sense weakness, or when they sense strength get away from a big hand that might otherwise be the loser. Anyone can have patience and play ABC aggressively, that's half the battle. The depth of one's reading abilities and way they analyze/play a hand is what makes one a better/ worse poker player. On any given night a bad player can outdraw a pro or catch a good run of cards, thats why tournaments consist more of luck but still require skill. In the long run the better poker players will have a profit in their pocket. But these skills come with much experience. Like in any thing we do, right practice leads to improvement leading us closer to perfection but never quite there. Doyle says it best in his book-- " knowing what to do- the science- is about 10% of the game, know how to do it- the art - is the other 90%."..... "Poker takes Five minutes to learn and a LIFETIME to master."

[davidchong]

luck.... 80%......

[RudyRuetigger]

To you guys saying it is all luck, do you honestly not believe in mathematics?

Do you believe that if I have AcAs and you have AhKh pre-flop, and we both go all in, I will win 87 times out of 100 and you will win 13 times?

IT ISN'T LUCK when you hit it! It is the natural order of things!

Great poker players can consistently put themselves in situations where they have a better chance of winning the pot then you do heads up.

Great players can also sense weakness in you and get you out of a pot even when their cards are weaker, and they can also sense your strength and get out of a hand when they are beat.

So what if a guy goes on a bad luck run and loses the above hand 3 out of 5 times? He will win it 85 of the next 95!

I've had some absolutely horrible luck but refuse to use it as an excuse because that is what it is; an excuse. There is no such thing as someone who is "lifetime lucky" or "lifetime unlucky" in mathematical situations because MATH WILL ALWAYS PREVAIL.

If you don't believe that, then you aren't in any position to be having this conversation.

pretty sharp post by dave de vegas

[eonizuka]

The best players will beat the rest of us over time more often than not. On tv when all ESPN shows are big all ins, it can make it seem like its all luck. Certainly to win any multi table tournament you have to get lucky and avoid a bad beat in a big pot. That is why I like cash games better but that is just me.

[Glitch]

one of my favorite quotes is "poker is 100% skill and 100% luck"

cant do anything if u dont catch a little bit of cards....but its the player that really has control of what you do with them. i think only a poker player could even understand this quote. sometimes you get that ace on the river....sometimes you pretend like you got that ace on the river.

[bettilimbroke999]

90% of the players who play have 90% of the skill that the pros have. It is not like the pros have the hidden secrets. To say poker is 90% skill is crazy if you illiminate common poker skills.

My answer 10% "True" skill and 90% luck

Exactly right, all half decent poker players all have about equal knowledge (which is relatively simple math anyway) about pot odds, implied odds, draw odds and when they play each other the result is 90% luck, I mean really how can you tell if a guy goin all in on you has the nuts or is bluffing? Theres no ******* way, watch high stakes poker or pokerstars.net big game on TV and you will see the pros constantly and I mean ******* constantly making the wrong decisions. Daniel Negreanu, supposedly one of "best" poker players in the world has played every season on HSP and has lost 100s of thousands every season, one of the most dominant poker players in the world a few years back was Gus Hansen, he won like 2 or 3 WPT events in one season, the past year hes down 7 mil. Even Tom Dwan which poker fans jerk off too bc he's "so good" was down over a million lifetime on Full Tilt a year ago even though somehow he claims to have started with only 50 bucks and never gone broke, so apparently someone lent him a couple million later on, now in his case hes come back and is up like 2 million lifetime but who knows if hell end up pulling a Gus Hansen or if he'll get up 10 million, theres no way of telling bc theres no way of ranking "skill" in poker, in other words "skill" doesn't equal results as it does in every other activity (what are the chances you beat Tiger Woods at golf, fukin zero, bc golf is a game of skill) so a rough estimate would be poker is 90% luck.

Now if Tom Dwan came down to the 1/2 NL level at your local casino he would probably kick ass so in that sense poker is 90% skill when you're playing players who dont have a fukin clue and play terrible with respect to the odds, but when you're playing players with a clue its 90% luck.

[GAB]

like40% luck i think

[RudyRuetigger]

Exactly right,

the guy spells eliminate - illiminate... i highly doubt hes one you want to be agreeing with.

[k13]

Now if Tom Dwan came down to the 1/2 NL level at your local casino he would probably kick ass so in that sense poker is 90% skill when you're playing players who dont have a fukin clue and play terrible with respect to the odds, but when you're playing players with a clue its 90% luck.

No, he would probably lose unless he got lucky. His game is not suited for 1/2 NL. Sure he can adjust but after all this time he won't. Just like he can't win tournaments.

Its a lot tougher to beat a freeroll tourney than a $10 or a $1000.

I agree about the rest, you are not beating roger federer in tennis on luck, ever.

I'll play dwan, ivey, whoever heads up, I'll still have at least 30% chance to win depending on the structure. Their edge is small.

[k13]

Speaking of luck and skill and long term play. This is my ITM% on PS, month by month.


21%
36
21
26
21
24
23
23
16
21
24
25
22
22
25
21
21
25
23
28
24
26
22
23
18
19
19
19
22
28
17%

As you can see its very consistent. overall avg. is 23%. I've played over a million hands.

[suicideking08]

in the short term there's a lot of luck. In the long term skill takes over.

[bettilimbroke999]

the guy spells eliminate - illiminate... i highly doubt hes one you want to be agreeing with.

SBR degenerates are not gonna win any national spelling bees but having watched the top poker players play cash games on TV (I consider the big tournaments all luck, just idiots goin all-in preflop every time they get AK and screaming 1 TIIIIIIIIIIIIIME when they get called by 10s whos also screamin 1 TIIIIIIIIIIIIIME (both idiots having already won 5 of these "1 time" all ins in the tourney already) I can honestly say they almost all seem to play very standard poker in the big cash games, nothing at all wrong with the way they play but nothing incredible about it either, the guys who get the cards are the big winners and the guys who get hosed by the cards are the big losers everytime and the winners change from show to show, just listen to the players sometimes when they are trying to decide a tough decision to call or fold, they really dont have a fukin clue, they just discuss every possible hand their opponent could have (I guess to make themselves feel better if they make the wrong decision, oh yeah thats what I was worried about nice hand, well **** yea its what you were worried about if you're gettin raised 30k, that you're up against one of the top hands, I mean duh, no one is worried about weak hands when they call 30k, oh yea that's what I was worried about pair of 2s nice hand guess I shouldnt have called that 30k raise on the river with Ace high, you had just what I was worried about, I mean I saw the kqj92 out there and I said fuk he rivered that duece on me didnt he

[bettilimbroke999]

Speaking of luck and skill and long term play. This is my ITM% on PS, month by month.


21%
36
21
26
21
24
23
23
16
21
24
25
22
22
25
21
21
25
23
28
24
26
22
23
18
19
19
19
22
28
17%

As you can see its very consistent. overall avg. is 23%. I've played over a million hands.

1 dollar buy ins or 2?

[k13]

1 dollar buy ins or 2?

3...

[lyc16]

one hand = 99% luck

one hour = 75% luck

5,000 hands = 45% luck

500,000 hands = 1% luck

---------------------------------
agree~~

[BarkingToad]

10% Skill, 40% Luck, 50% Guts

[Patrick McIrish]

Over the course of your lifetime there is ZERO luck involved in poker if you play regularly. ZERO! NADA! ZILCH!!! Of course over a short period of time anything can happen and usually does, over the long haul though the math always rings true. Shipwreck 10 guys on a deserted island the best player will die with all the money hidden up top some coconut tree. You can run that same experiment 1 million times and the best player will always get the money. No luck in this game, just a whole lot of excuse making and nonsense spewed by those who don't understand how to play. 'Nuff said.

[k13]

Over the course of your lifetime there is ZERO luck involved in poker if you play regularly. ZERO! NADA! ZILCH!!! Of course over a short period of time anything can happen and usually does, over the long haul though the math always rings true. Shipwreck 10 guys on a deserted island the best player will die with all the money hidden up top some coconut tree. You can run that same experiment 1 million times and the best player will always get the money. No luck in this game, just a whole lot of excuse making and nonsense spewed by those who don't understand how to play. 'Nuff said.

No such thing as a best player.

Yeah, run it a million times, variance will still be huge.

That's why all these "best" players go broke over and over again, need people staking them all the time.

[legendmatt34]

the bad players get rewarded online..

[stefan084]

most people who have played a decent amount of poker know their hands odds vs pot odds their getting etc., most people know how you play certain "tricky" hands also. but most can't afford $10,000 buy in year after year. i love these poker commercials that make the pros seem like gods who can read your hand just by looking at you-then they're out on the first day

[Patrick McIrish]

No such thing as a best player.

Yeah, run it a million times, variance will still be huge.

That's why all these "best" players go broke over and over again, need people staking them all the time.

There is always a "best player", the line between the have and the have nots is very clear for anyone wanting to listen, the fact you aren't part of the winning subset has led you to be blind to the fact. As for why good players need to get staked - it's rarely due to poker. In a few cases it might be as someone is playing over their head and so on but usually it's other bad habits that lead to solid poker players needing a stake. TJ Cloutier and his crap habit for example. Great poker players often have an expensive habit it seems, they just can't seem to stick to what they win at. Good poker players rarely (if ever) have a bad year, it just doesn't happen. Not because they are "lucky" sir, it's because they are better than their competition. Losers cry about being "unlucky", winners keep taking the cheese. Been that way forever, will be that way forever going forward. Carry on.

[HustleGetPaid]

50% skill & 50% luck...

[dimon]

There is always a "best player", the line between the have and the have nots is very clear for anyone wanting to listen, the fact you aren't part of the winning subset has led you to be blind to the fact. As for why good players need to get staked - it's rarely due to poker. In a few cases it might be as someone is playing over their head and so on but usually it's other bad habits that lead to solid poker players needing a stake. TJ Cloutier and his crap habit for example. Great poker players often have an expensive habit it seems, they just can't seem to stick to what they win at. Good poker players rarely (if ever) have a bad year, it just doesn't happen. Not because they are "lucky" sir, it's because they are better than their competition. Losers cry about being "unlucky", winners keep taking the cheese. Been that way forever, will be that way forever going forward. Carry on.

I am not agree...good even great players can have a year or more of bad beats...it is notrmal, it's just not many even good pros can handle it right...but you are wrong saying that good player can't have a bad year