[bobbyk1133]

To have great value in a bet you need a little more leeway. If the number is 7.5 and you want the under, you better believe in your mind that they will win about 4 or 5 tops. If you like the over it's the same, you better think they are gonna get 10. The difference between 7-9 and 9-7 is hair thin ....

Completely agree with this one. If you project them to win within a game of the line, you must love high-risk bets. Some wins/losses just defy all logic, probability, and analysis. The line has already gone down to 7 in one of my sportsbooks and while I like that line a lot less, I would still take the UNDER. 8 wins would be considered a very successful year given all the factors.

[CaptainPrice]

true that vegas
if its dow to 7 i might take em 6 and its done

[awholelottalumps]

Strongly agree, I see 5 wins tops.

[frostno98]

This is what worries me about your bet...you are saying that Denver will split with two bad teams. If they sweep those two teams you lose your bet. Not sold because of the bad division they are in. I do think KC will be better but can they win one from Denver not so sure but it is interesting.

Those two bad teams you just mention(Oak&KC), both beaten the Broncos in Denver last year. People that are not familiar with the AFC west, always assume that playing the Raiders or woeful Chiefs is a guarantee win, it don't work like that in this division. The Broncos has not swept either since the 2005 season when they went 13-3. That's five freaking years that passed already. Broaden your horizons bro, and don't get trap by them Vegas Oddsmaker deception.

The Broncos plays the Chief in KC in December this year. They have not beaten the Chiefs when playing in December since 1998, so go ahead at lock it up as a loss. Plus what has the Broncos done to think they can replicate what they did last season. They don't even have single player on offense that would even scare the worst of worst NFL defense. This team will not score enough points to win period! They don't even have reliable field goal kicker, ever since the clutch Jason Elam departed.

[vegasfred]

Those two bad teams you just mention(Oak&KC), both beaten the Broncos in Denver last year. People that are not familiar with the AFC west, always assume that playing the Raiders or woeful Chiefs is a guarantee win, it don't work like that in this division. The Broncos has not swept either since the 2005 season when they went 13-3. That's five freaking years that passed already. Broaden your horizons bro, and don't get trap by them Vegas Oddsmaker deception.

The Broncos plays the Chief in KC in December this year. They have not beaten the Chiefs when playing in December since 1998, so go ahead at lock it up as a loss. Plus what has the Broncos done to think they can replicate what they did last season. They don't even have single player on offense that would even scare the worst of worst NFL defense. This team will not score enough points to win period! They don't even have reliable field goal kicker, ever since the clutch Jason Elam departed.

I don't think the main issue is whether they'll sweep the KC / Oak games. They very well might not, it's the fact that the number is too sharp to make the over or under a good value bet. If you're season wins bet comes down to the outcome of one or two games where the teams are pretty evenly matched, you may as well just bet on the side when the games roll around instead of tying up your money on a season win total

[joekane88]

100% agree, this team is a mess/joke right now, with no weapons

they have 3 good players on the team 1 is out for the year (Dumervil)

one gets misused (Royal) & DJ Williams

Champ and Dawkins are good but old, Ryan Clady a great tackle, & thats it, they will get smoked early & often

and for the people saying Chiefs & Raiders , the Broncos lose AT LEAST one game each to those 2 when they have good/great teams,

[mighty maron]

The Broncos are traditionally very strong to start the season....I can see it more than 5 easy

[filter15]

second year i system statistically sees a huge rise in expected points return per play.
IMO 7 games is at the very least too close, at the most its too low but ill save that for myself

[frostno98]

Last year I made the same prediction with the Broncos not being able to win more than 7 games. That prediction was made, based on Denver's weak defense line and Brandon Marshall sitting out for the rest of the year because he didn't like the HC. The D-line was exposed after game six, and Marshall didn't sit out until the final game, which resulted in a Kansas City Chief blowout.

Unfortunately for me, Marshall didn't sit out soon enough and was a huge factor in 3 Denver wins. Without him, they wouldn't had beaten the Giants, Cowboys, or Patriots. Then you had that fluke Stokley in Cincy Touchdown that gave them the first win of the season. Even with those 4 wins, they still finished 8-8.

What makes me believe or anyone else that this team is even capable of getting close to 8-8 again, without Marshall or Dumervil who were huge contributors in those eight wins. Those two guys are at the very least two extra wins. In simple terms, No Marshall, No Dumervil, means a +2 advantage to a already good under 7.5 line. So lock it up fellas

[Wrigley]

I like the under 7.5 as well

[Augustus]

8 Wins are within reach
Not a good investment

[Wrigley]

what was this teams record in its last 8 games last year they sucked did they not start out hot I think 6-10 for the broncs this year

[Wrigley]

I just looked it up this ship is still sinking 2-6 last 8 games last season

Regular Season (8-8)
Week Day Date Opponent Site Time/Result TV
1 Sun. Sept. 13 at Cincinnati Paul Brown Stadium W 12-7 CBS
2 Sun. Sept. 20 VS. CLEVELAND Invesco Field at Mile High W 27-6 CBS
3 Sun. Sept. 27 at Oakland Oak.-Alameda County Coliseum W 23-3 CBS
4 Sun. Oct. 4 VS. DALLAS Invesco Field at Mile High W 17-10 FOX
5 Sun. Oct. 11 VS. NEW ENGLAND Invesco Field at Mile High W 20-17, OT CBS
6 Mon. Oct. 19 at San Diego Qualcomm Stadium W 34-23 ESPN
7 BYE WEEK
8 Sun. Nov. 1 at Baltimore M&T Bank Stadium L 7-30 CBS
9 Mon. Nov. 9 VS. PITTSBURGH Invesco Field at Mile High L 10-28 ESPN
10 Sun. Nov. 15 at Washington FedEx Field L 17-27 CBS
11 Sun. Nov. 22 VS. SAN DIEGO Invesco Field at Mile High L 3-32 CBS
12 Thu. Nov. 26 VS. N.Y. GIANTS Invesco Field at Mile High W 26-6 NFLN
13 Sun. Dec. 6 at Kansas City Arrowhead Stadium W 44-13 CBS
14 Sun. Dec. 13 at Indianapolis Lucas Oil Stadium L 16-28 CBS
15 Sun. Dec. 20 VS. OAKLAND Invesco Field at Mile High L 19-20 CBS
16 Sun. Dec. 27 at Philadelphia Lincoln Financial Field L 27-30 CBS
17 Sun. Jan. 3 VS. KANSAS CITY Invesco Field at Mile High L 24-44 CBS

[Betting Guru]

That actually might not be a bad bet. Good little write up, thanks

[vegasfred]

I think the point is being missed. Picking a side on a season total isn't directly about what you think about a team from a talent standpoint and CERTAINLY NOT about what the team did last year, it's about deciding whether you have a good positive EV bet based on things like their schedule and expected circumstances during the season. Many a mediocre team have finished at or above .500 and many a good team has been under.

The argument I have had against the bet isn't that I think the Broncos are any good. It's that most of the people that feel they are an under team still have them lingering around the 6 win mark. In a bet where 7 is the magic number (and laying a good bit of juice) to win, there isn't good value to the bet. It goes the other way also. If you think they're an over team, you probably don't have them much better than 8-8. That's a bad value bet also (though the juice is better).

There's nothing wrong with betting the under if you believe they're around a 4 win team. Then you'll have good value ...

[frostno98]

Didn't put any money on this future because the juice was at -175 and every online book only allowed a $500 dollar max bet limit. Congrats to those who did

[jagaf22]

Nice call whoever pulled the trigger. Think McDaniels makes it the rest of the year Frostno?

[killawookie]

Rams helped you guys by being a shitty team i guess

[vegasfred]

3/4 into the season. Kinda good time to look back on what people thought preseason...

Good call on the Broncos under. Easy winner.

Though I bet none of you thought their passing game would be so prolific for so much of the year. Just didn't translate to the W's.

[frostno98]

It's funny to look back at all the dissenters in 2010, despite you giving them good inside knowledge on a good play.

[ijenpo]

under 7.5 is a good play. too bad it's 6 games and -170 on my book.

[Cap dat 4ss]

Get it while you can fellas at -115, for the Broncos to win less than 7.5 games. I have no idea why this team is getting so much respect. Last year team managed to finish at 8-8, thanks to a 6-0 start and couple of fluke wins along the way. One win was thanks to a fluke Brandon Stokley tip pass TD, while the other an unbelievable athletic catch and run TD by Brandon Marshall that should of easily been intercepted for a pick six. The 2010 Broncos will much less explosive with the departure of B. Marsh and tight end Tony Scheffler. Without any kind of passing attack, and the traditional strong Broncos running game under Shanahan, I have no clue how many points these guy can possible put up to have a chance to win. The defense will clearly suffer without Mike Nolan defensive schemes. The Broncos secondary is still strong with the trio of Dawkins, Bailey, and Goodman, but the front seven is still suspect. Elvis Dumervil is about the only impact player they have, and his suspect as pass defender or run stopper. The Broncos defense will be exposed again, like they did in the 2nd half of the season going 2-8. They will not stop anyone. I believe the Broncos will win only six games at most. This team could not even sweep the woeful Chiefs or Raiders last year, losing to both teams at Home! Tebow or Orton is not good enough to compete against Rivers in an off day, so you could basically lock up 4 AFC west lost for the Broncos. Here's the 2010 Broncos schedule, and why they will lose these other six or more game out of the AFC west.

1. Sept 12. At Jacksonville Loss-I don't think this team will do well on the road this year.
2. Sept 19. Vs Seattle Win-I can see them winning, because Seattle sux on the road playing AFC opponents
3. Sept 26. Vs Indianapolis Loss-No chance in hell Manning could possibly lose to Orton
4. Oct 3. At Tennessee Loss-Another tough road game. Vince Young and Chris Johnson should have a field day.
5. Oct 10. At Ravens Loss-Baltimore is just to physical for this, nothing hasn't changed much between the two from last year. Expecting another suffocating defensive performance from the Ravens.
6. Oct 17. Vs Jets Win-I'm still not a big believer of Sanchez on the road, and the Mile High city steals this one.
7. Oct 27. Vs Oakland Win-The Raiders always seems to the lost the first game, but come out strong the 2nd time.
8. Oct 31. At San Francisco Loss-The 49ers will win the NFC west this year, and they will not lose to a non-contender like these Broncos.
9. Nov 14. Vs Kansas City Win-The Broncos will look to avenge last year home loss, and come out strong this game.
10. Nov 22. At San Diego Loss-Tebow or Orton vs Phillips, I'll gladly take Phillip even if he doesn't have Vincent Jackson by then. The Chargers still has Gates, and an explosive rookie running back in Ryan Matthews.
11. Nov 28. Vs St.Louis Win-The Rams are a joke, and the Broncos traditionally do well against NFC opponents at home.
12. Dec 5. At Kansas City Loss-The Broncos has not won in Kansas City in December since that 1998 Superbowl team did it. And it won't change here.
13. Dec 12. At Cardinals win-I'm still not sold on Lienart, and Orton might be just good enough.
14. Dec 19. At Oakland Loss-Denver has not swept Oakland since 2005. The Raiders always play the Broncos like it's the Superbowl, and they split the season again.
15. Dec 26. Vs Houston Loss-Look for the Texans high power offense to run all over the Broncos Defense. The Broncos will probably be demoralized by this point of the season, and give up on coach Mcdouche.
16. Jan 2. Vs San Diego Loss-The Chargers will be trying to solidify their playoffs standings, while the Broncos will be in rebuilding mode. The entire will do like they did against Kansas City at home, give up!

guess I should look at post dates next time

[frostno98]

Bump 2010 prediction