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Denver opens-9 in Game 2
Public MIGHT get the spread here but I don't think mia wins the game. Public will keep chasing the heat IMO. Denver just gets it done. They have too much for the heat. They can afford to go cold and still hang around on a bad night. The two days off is good for the heat that's why I think they will make this a game but come up short.
Lay the points I think is the way to go.
Nothing's changed, top to bottom Denver is the superior team.
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Money was heavy on Denver spread and moneyline, not sure why you think public was on Miami.
I doubt there'll be any dramatic swing for game 2.
Source?Originally Posted by Eddy Munny
Every place I saw was about 55-45 mia on the spread.
Only dummies lay -400 or whatever Denver was.
Public will be all over mia in the next game we the bounceback angle and I agree on that. Not to win though just the points. Johnny Vegas can lose on the ml.
Tickets were about even on the spread, but money %'s skewed towards Denver.
As far as the moneyline, it was both tickets and money on Denver.
I would guess that a lot of people throw Denver ML in on all the parlays.
Every free "source" that I saw had the majority of bets and money on Heat
Wagertalk
Covers
BMR
SBR
Action Network's paid PRO service had 50/50 with money skewing Denver 70%
These were on spread bets
You cant trust any of those % numbers. They are all garbage. Anyone who knows these games knows no one is betting Denver ML like you said unless its tied to parlays. All straight bets are going Heat ML, Heat spread, Denver spread. That alone makes it easy to deduce that Heat are a public play for both away games
A website is indicating Bookmaker opened Game 2 at Denver -10. Can't confirm it 100% because it could be a tech error? But if it is true... I think that's very significant. People shot down the line to Denver -8.5 within an hour.
Why did Miami match up well VS Boston... but VS Denver there's mismatches everywhere. So basically we're saying Boston sucks?? True that.
denver was easy game 1
will be on heat spread and the first half over game 2 as of right now
there was not going to be a gift this year like last year with the warriors losing game 1 due to a freak barrage of 3 point hits from the Celtics
So you arrived at your conclusion through pure conjecture rather than data.
Last edited by Eddy Munny; 06-02-23 at 06:44 AM.
I didn't see any percentages, but neither app I use (DK or FoxBet) had any lines budge. Spread stayed same, MLs stayed the same.
We still don't know how much Heat still have in the tank. It could be completely empty and they lose by more than 9 next game. Remember the Nuggets only need to win by 10 to cover..Not 20 or 30.
Then again they played horrible and only lost by 11. In the scheme of things, 10 points is a lot.
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Denver took the fourth quarter off last night, slept walked pretty much the final twelve minutes and Miami still lost by double digits.
I was just reading in The Athletic where Malone was pissed at the whole team for that 4th quarter performance.
I like that, instead of partying after a win, he lights a fire under their asses.
Nuggets again Sunday by double digits for me.
Cs don't play big and played 7 games with a sizable sixers team, nugs would still have size adv against boston. Heat playing tyler zeller but he doesnt offer anything.
You have to because there is no reliable data. That’s my point.
I'm not sure I agree. Mia with two days off will keep it close. Lakers never had more then a day off and that killed them. I'm not on board with the ml but,+8.5 which it dropped to BTW is definitely the play. Laying points again is foolish.
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Miami was tired. Now that things will even out where Miami is getting used to the higher elevation by being there,
and coach Eric will adjust the game plan, they are more likely to put up a front than in Game 1.
I was shocked by the Series Line adjustment. It went from -400/-420 to a low of -700 to high -900.
For a home Game 1 that is supposed to be taken into factor, that is way out of line.
Heat have a shot on ML but are still unlikely. The line should be a little lower, like around 7.5.
I can respect that.
I still like Denver in game two though.
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Not that big a change. Denver went from about 82% chance to 88% chance.
Torn on this game:
1) Word is that Herro might try to go Game2. IMHO, that's a non-factor. Can't imagine him playing big minutes.
2) One key takeaway from Gm 1: Martin had a poor game. That's in contrast to the Boston series. If there was one mistake Mazzulla made in the series, it was letting Martin get too comfortable. Martin exceeded his Pts/3FGMade in every game of that series. Denver has the long defenders to shut Martin down.
If I had anything to look at, that would be it. Martin was a huge factor in MIA defeating BOS. If Martin is shut down, can't really see how Miami hangs in this series.
Denver moneyline
Don't overthink this
I still don't like how Bookmaker opened Game 2 at -10. They are a slick book.
Good info, Shot. That's why you're SHARP as an arrow.
the series odds doubled.
-400 implied winning percentage --> 80.0%
-800 implied winning percentage --> 88.9%
Denver played a lousy 2nd half and still was never in danger of Miami getting close.
I didn't realize how Denver's length and height is obvious over Miami. It seems they can score in the paint way too easy.
I dont like laying that many points so I would wait in game if Denver jumps out early and get the Heat at +11 or more.
Miami missed a lot of wide open threes, keep that in mind. Strus particularly was a responsible for like 7 point blank missed.
no reason to pay that ... not in the Finals
den 1q spread game 2 if you don't want the full game spread and take into account what happened game 1 with denver taking the 4th off and only holding on to cover the spread by a bucket
Even if we assume -400 start (I saw mostly more) and now -800, that isn't "double". Please tell me that you realize that -100 to -200 is not the same move as -400 to -800. Is -1000 to -2000 also "double"?
Correct. Although I saw Denver -500 at Fanduel.
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