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HOW vegas creates the point spreads for NFL
very complicated process
Linemakers use a variety of methods to calculate their idea of the pointspread. Some use complicated computer programs that factor in recent performance, injuries, player match-ups, etc. Others simply have a feel for the games and produce a number out of thin air. However, most line makers use power ratings or some derivation.
Power ratings involve assigning each team a numerical value based on performance and than comparing the ratings to generate a pointspread. For example, one set of ratings I saw this week had Miami rated 57 at home and Indianapolis rated 53 on the road, so the difference results in a 4 point line. Another set has Miami rated 77, Indianapolis rated 75, and gave a 3.5 point advantage to the home team so it predicted an opening line of 5. The actual line opened at 6 at some books, and was bet down quickly to 4.5, so it appears that 6 was too high. There are no standards for how to derive these ratings, and predicting actual outcomes with better accuracy than the majority of the betting public is your key to success.
( also use power ratings of Head coaches home filed defnse yards per play on offense)
Some sportsbooks base all their lines on their own internal linemaking, but the majority of books rely either solely on oddsmaking services or a combination of external service and their own handicapping.
BoDog Bookmakers handicap the games themselves, compare these results to the opening lines out of Vegas and then adjusts for the historical action of their own player base before coming up with a consensus opening number for each game. From there, the numbers are moved only to balance action or to account for special circumstances such as weather, injuries or the like.
then brother they know you n me decades of reg squares we love to bet on top teams and when you do your paying premimum price in laying more points
chiefs were a victim of this 5-12 ats i was sharp i faded them a ton
Titans also bad with late season injuries
colts with jeff saturady i cleaned up 8 str8 losses
Ravens also buried everyone ats even a -3 spread win by 2
Packers you always pay premiium price on them and every year it dosent change
and the chargers were money all year 10-7 s/u 11-5 -1 ats
texans wow 3-13 s/u but an amazing 8-9 ats
Bills wow 13-3 s/u but 8-9 ats
Bears 3-14 s/u and 5-12 ats lol
tmpa bay 8-9 s/u and wow 4-13 ats
imagine if you knew this before season strated
start with ravens 6-10-1 you go 10-6 $10,340 net
Colts 6-11 $11,440 net = $21780.00 net
chiefs 5-11 you $11550.00 net = $33,330.00 net
Broncos 7-10 ats $10230.00 =$43560.00 net in your pocket
Bears 5-12 ats $12,650.00 =$56,210.00 in your bank account
BUCS 4-13 ats $13860.00 =$70,070.00 in your pocket
Saints 6-11 ats $11,440 = $81,510.00 in your wallets or rather suitcases
Falcons 7-10 $10230.00 = $ 91,740.00
and last but not least Seattle 7/10 ats $10230.00 = $101,970.00 for 4 months sep oct nov dec
= $25,492.50 per month that like the mdian yearly salary for family of 3
i think it will be same next year
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Originally Posted by jjgold
