[jjgold]

Wind and cold everywhere although wind the main thing that affects nfl totals

[cincinnatikid513]

6 games totals in 30 s

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Taking a hard look at the overs, hopefully more will drop.

[pavyracer]

Cold is not an issue. Wind is an issue if is a cross wind only.

[hawkwind]

Actually 18.5 %

[JIBBBY]

Weather is nuts now. Snow and freezing across the Nation! Got global warming, lol..

Gonna love to see how all these green new deal electric cars hold up in these freezing shit storms?

[pavyracer]

Weather is nuts now. Snow and freezing across the Nation! Got global warming, lol..

Gonna love to see how all these green new deal electric cars hold up in these freezing shit storms?

It's 65 degrees in Santa Monica. The Teslas will survive. Don't worry.

[Renegades]

Scoring is way down in the nfl this yr anyways. Games averaging 42-43 pts. Lowest in 10 yrs

[jjgold]

Take under every game
This week

[big joe 1212]

When players run out of bounds they only stop the clock for 1-2 seconds these days. Does this have something to do with scoring being down?

[Brock Landers]

When players run out of bounds they only stop the clock for 1-2 seconds these days. Does this have something to do with scoring being down?

always been that way, only time clock stops after going out of bounds is under 2 mins in 1st half and under 5 mins in 4th quarter

[thetrinity]

ncaa basketball being cancelled left and right

[Brock Landers]

ncaa basketball being cancelled left and right

huh?

3 games and those were cancelled well ahead of time

[JIBBBY]

It's 65 degrees in Santa Monica. The Teslas will survive. Don't worry.

I know I live here, beautiful day! I was talking about the Tesla drivers in NY.

[big joe 1212]

always been that way, only time clock stops after going out of bounds is under 2 mins in 1st half and under 5 mins in 4th quarter

Incorrect

Used to restart when the ball was set

[pavyracer]

I know I live here, beautiful day! I was talking about the Tesla drivers in NY.

50% of the cars in Norway are EV. They have more than 1 million EV for such a small country. And it is much colder in Norway than New York in the winter.

[Enkhbat]

Here in Chicago the weather is horrible, expect the Bills/Bears game to go under but the line is only 40.5

[Slurry Pumper]

Like the great lake unders this week. Buf / Chi und 40.5, and N.O / Cle und 32. Yeh, 32 sounds like an easy over, but there is a reason why it sucks to be in Cleveland.

[KVB]

I was planning on getting into some longer term effects on lines and scores of cold, wind, and the combination of both but first layer down some season facts.

Then I saw this thread. Here’s some info from FlyMe…

So check this out, from my office.

This is what would happen if you bet the same unit on every UNDER or ever OVER this NFL Season.

The first game of the season went UNDER and they haven't looked back. This does not count tonight's UNDER...

[KVB]

There were multiple posts in the series…

Despite the UNDERS killing it record wise, in 7 of the 15 weeks the average game score has been higher than the average closing Total line...



Season to date the average closing Total is 44.6 while the average final score has been 44, but notice the median final score is 1.5 points lower than the median closer...

2022 Season	Hm Score	Rd Score	Total Lines	Scores	Hm Spread
All games
Avg	22.9	21.2	44.6	44.0	-1.5
Med	23.0	20.5	44.5	43.0	-2.5

[KVB]

The next post…

Notice week 16, this upcoming week, in the bar chart above. We are facing the lowest Totals this season.

There is some wind out there, but there is also some cold this week.

Here are some NFL weekly averages, including this upcoming week. The red and blue lines are just the tops of the bar graph above, the green line is wind.

The yellow line is temperature and is represented by the right side axis...

[KVB]

And the next…

Here's the breakdown of that Table above showing the 2022 Season so far. I already posted the Full Season and UNDER record.

Now we'll add all the Weather games (non roofed dome) and further break those down into Wind at 12+ mph, 15+mph, and games with an average temp of 40 degrees or less, the cold games, and the average home spreads.

Notice that, this season, when the wind is 15+ mph the Home Scores separate, as well as the home point spreads...

UND Record	2022 Season	Hm Score	Rd Score	Total Lines	Scores	Hm Spread
123-100-1	All games
	Avg	22.9	21.2	44.6	44.121	-1.5
	Med	23.0	20.5	44.5	43.0	-2.5
116-92-1	All Weather
	Avg	23.2	20.9	44.5	44.105	-1.5
	Med	23.0	20.0	44.5	42.0	-2.5
23-13	Wind 12+ mph
	Avg.	21.8	18.9	43.6	40.7	-2.3
	Med	21.0	21.0	42.8	40.5	-3.0
6-5	Wind 15+
	Avg	24.2	17.1	44.4	41.3	-3.8
	Med	23.0	17.0	44.5	43.0	-3.5
14-11	40 Deg or Less
	Avg	21.0	21.0	43.8	42.0	-2.4
	Med	20.0	23.0	43.5	44.0	-3.0

[KVB]

And the final post about this week’s games…

Here are this week's games, Total lines, expected temps and expected winds, including tonight's game with NY and Jax, where there were high winds and the game ended UNDER.

High winds and low temps give us some low totals, especially in Cleveland, that looks to lead in both extremes this week...

Hm Team	Rd Team	Odds	Temp	Wind
New York Jets	Jacksonville Jaguars	36.5	48	17
San Francisco 49ers	Washington Commanders	37.5	61	4
New England Patriots	Cincinnati Bengals	41.5	20	13
Kansas City Chiefs	Seattle Seahawks	49.5	13	13
Chicago Bears	Buffalo Bills	39.5	9	22
Carolina Panthers	Detroit Lions	43.5	27	11
Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	35.5	19	11
Cleveland Browns	New Orleans Saints	32.5	9	26
Pittsburgh Steelers	Las Vegas Raiders	38.5	12	15
Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	46.5	34	2
Baltimore Ravens	Atlanta Falcons	35.5	19	15
Arizona Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.5	59	2
Miami Dolphins	Green Bay Packers	50.5	56	9
Indianapolis Colts	Los Angeles Chargers	45.5	15	5

We did not get into what happens when we combine wind and cold and what happens when we regress these things, to seean effect on the line and results, with more historical data than just this season. That is for another time.

[KVB]

Some final thoughts before we go further…

That's a tough one. I'd like to say "look at these low lines, must be an overreaction" and we could see some OVERs this week in those games but this might not be the best week to try to hit OVERs.

We're talking cold and wind, to an extreme, in those games. It's the NFL, so the Cleveland/NewOrleans game just might go OVER...LMAO.

What about the home teams in those windy games though?

Those home scores are a TD better than road scores when the wind is high, at least this season.

Then again, high winds tonight and the road team won.

Then again, again, it was an NFL Thursday night game. Classic NFL.

I think we need to look at a this in a little more detail, have any of these lines moved too far? Is there a home team with moneyline value?

We're going to have dive in, and dig deeper...