1. 12-13-22 01:37 PM #36
    Nate rasta
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Messi!

    Damn, I passed on this prop.
    Oh man
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  2. 12-13-22 01:38 PM #37
    stevenash
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    *my bad*
    Last edited by stevenash; 12-13-22 at 01:54 PM.
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  3. 12-13-22 01:38 PM #38
    Thrilla
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  4. 12-13-22 01:40 PM #39
    JayLA
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    Let"s fcking gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo o
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  5. 12-13-22 01:40 PM #40
    stevenash
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    Argentina isn't going to be denied.
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  6. 12-13-22 01:41 PM #41
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
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    I do have Argentina straight up, I don't think I posted that earlier.
    Small bet, just 22/20
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  7. 12-13-22 01:42 PM #42
    JayLA
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    I'm FIRED THE FK UP!!!!!!!!!!!
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  8. 12-13-22 01:44 PM #43
    Thrilla
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    Nasher knows
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  9. 12-13-22 01:47 PM #44
    pologq
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    i am glad you have argentina nash. sorry i thought you ended up taking it.

    gun to my head before the match i would not have taken it.
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  10. 12-13-22 01:50 PM #45
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I do have Argentina straight up, I don't think I posted that earlier.
    Small bet, just 22/20
    Signed by your pal Nasher
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  11. 12-13-22 03:52 PM #46
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Messi to score at any time is quoted at +165 on another comparison site. That equates to 37.2%. Given the book price on this market the true probability is likely around 32%.
    Circa had the No for -180 all day. At 32% chance of scoring, that would be a 5.8% edge. Highly doubtful that’s the correct probability when they we’re letting people bet it for as much as they could ever want.
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  12. 12-13-22 08:02 PM #47
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    Circa had the No for -180 all day. At 32% chance of scoring, that would be a 5.8% edge. Highly doubtful that’s the correct probability when they we’re letting people bet it for as much as they could ever want.
    Perfectly good point. I simply looked on oddschecker at their match bulletin points and Messi anytime was 32/19. I didn't check to see who offered those odds, (which could have been wrong), or what price was offered about NO, (mainly because the match was starting in 5 minutes). Prop bets normally have a much higher vig level than normal 2 outcome bets. My bad if the line was -180, +165. However, I was fairly kind on a possible 32% breakdown. A loss might have been more than 4% and a draw 7%. Maybe on a 36% probability Argentina winning was a 23% or 23.5% chance. Either way congrats to stevenash on the win.
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  13. 12-13-22 09:31 PM #48
    unde0087
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Argentina isn't going to be denied.
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  14. 12-13-22 09:46 PM #49
    JayLA
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    my book was offering Croatia win / draw + btts at odds boost.

    I think we can all agree that we should not believe any "boost" the book offers.
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  15. 12-14-22 08:25 AM #50
    Thrilla
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    Your pal nasher
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