[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

wk01: 5-2 ATS
wk02: 10-0 ATS
wk03: 10-1 ATS.
wk04: 10-8 ATS
wk05: 7-6 ATS
wk06: 8-4 ATS
wk07: 7-8 ATS

wk08: 9-8 ATS
wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
wk10: 7-5 ATS
wk 11: 4-6ATS
wk 12: 4-5 ATS
wk13: 4-6 ATS
wk14: 5-1 ATS
wk15: 4-2 ATS
wk16: 5-3 ATS
YTD: 100-70 ATS (.588)
(vs -110) +23.0 units

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wk 17 will likely be the last week for the season.

Week 18 matchups can lead to a lot of "dead rubbers." Plan is to not post week 18.

[jackpot269]

Raiders .. +5.5...-110 Bovada

Fading 49ers may be the best team in the league right now

Taking the Raiders, no way they should be on the field with the 49ers

A lot of games the last 5 or 6 weeks have seemed this lopsided and went the other way, let's see what happens here!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, Jack. And Good Luck. Yes, there's a lot to sort out on these games.

[jackpot269]

Thanks, Jack. And Good Luck. Yes, there's a lot to sort out on these games.

Hope you had a wonderful Christmas, GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hope you had a wonderful Christmas, GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!!

Would have been BETTER...if Folk had made just one Extra Point.

[edawg]

Denver +13.5

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Denver +13.5

Thx, dawg. Good Luck.

[Nate rasta]

Let's finish the season on a high note. Give me the Green Bay Packers -3
Vikings luck finally runs out

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, Nate. Good Luck, guys.

Summary of picks:
119 Denver +13.5
126 LAS VEGAS +5.5
128 GREEN BAY -3

[Allure]

Carolina Panthers +3 and ML. Bucs are pathetic, they have no offense whatsoever and their defense is also on decline. Quite honestly it's almost a miracle that they have this many wins. They beat Zona, starting their 3rd string QB, by a Christmas miracle. Books don't seem to have much confidence in Tampa Bay either hence the low line at home.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks, Nate. Good Luck, guys.

Summary of picks:
103 Carolina +3119 Denver +13.5
126 LAS VEGAS +5.5
128 GREEN BAY -3

OK, thx, Allure. Good Luck on the Panthers.

[agendaman]

rams plus 6.5 at -105.lac off a short week.rams high off big win.qb baker looks good lately. 2 l.a teams etc. rams go out a winner.gl all.happy new year.

[BrewMan]

Carolina Panthers +3 and ML. Bucs are pathetic, they have no offense whatsoever and their defense is also on decline. Quite honestly it's almost a miracle that they have this many wins. They beat Zona, starting their 3rd string QB, by a Christmas miracle. Books don't seem to have much confidence in Tampa Bay either hence the low line at home.

Trying to figure out this thread...everything you posted here makes it sound like Carolina is the public play. Wouldn't your play be on on the Bucs then?

[pologq]

i get you brew man. i saw the -3 and was surprised but i think books are catching up realizing the bucs do not win big. hard to trust them. panthers are -119 at the -3 also.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 102 TENN TITANS +10. (Fading: Dallas Cowboys).

The +10 is easily available. Could even touch +10.5 before kickoff.

I like the angle of this game playing on Thursday nite. By being the first game of the week, no other results yet in. After beating the Eagles last week, Dallas will go to post with a chance to win the division.

But do they really have more than a mathematical chance to trump the Eagles? Would take the perfect runout of W/L by both teams. 538 gives Dallas a 3% chance of winning the division. More realistically, Dallas is going to land in the 5-seed.

As for the Titans, very tough to back. QB is out for the year, just lost to the worst team in the league. And there's some question about the Titan motivation with a "winner take all" game waiting Week 18 at Jacksonville.

There have been two Ties in the league this year. The Overtime rule makes a Tie more possible. In that case, the Week 17 Ten/Jax results would be relevant.

I think Vrabel has trained the team to play hard. I don't seeing them relaxing here. Although it's certainly possible.

Anyway, I'm taking the +10. I think the Cowboy line is ratcheted up for "need" in their pursuit of the division.

[jackpot269]

Playing: 102 TENN TITANS +10. (Fading: Dallas Cowboys).

The +10 is easily available. Could even touch +10.5 before kickoff.

I like the angle of this game playing on Thursday nite. By being the first game of the week, no other results yet in. After beating the Eagles last week, Dallas will go to post with a chance to win the division.

But do they really have more than a mathematical chance to trump the Eagles? Would take the perfect runout of W/L by both teams. 538 gives Dallas a 3% chance of winning the division. More realistically, Dallas is going to land in the 5-seed.

As for the Titans, very tough to back. QB is out for the year, just lost to the worst team in the league. And there's some question about the Titan motivation with a "winner take all" game waiting Week 18 at Jacksonville.

There have been two Ties in the league this year. The Overtime rule makes a Tie more possible. In that case, the Week 17 Ten/Jax results would be relevant.

I think Vrabel has trained the team to play hard. I don't seeing them relaxing here. Although it's certainly possible.

Anyway, I'm taking the +10. I think the Cowboy line is ratcheted up for "need" in their pursuit of the division.

I would really like to see them throw more on first down and take some pressure off the running game and add in some misdirection run plays. If you know 98% chance 22 getting the ball off tackle and stack 8 in the box with safeties up close to the line it's hard even for a King to get any yards!!

[iwantcougars]

cleveland +2, similar teams but wash qb controversy is too much

[ChuckyTheGoat]

cleveland +2, similar teams but wash qb controversy is too much

Thx for posting, Coug. Good Luck on the Browns.

Summary of picks:
102 TENN +10
103 Carolina +3
105 Cleveland +2
119 Denver +13.5
126 LAS VEGAS +5.5
128 GREEN BAY -3

[agendaman]

chucky did you see my pick was rams plus 6.5 pts.it is not in the summary.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky did you see my pick was rams plus 6.5 pts.it is not in the summary.

Sorry, meant to include it. Mind on other things nowadays, I guess:

Summary of picks:
102 TENN +10
103 Carolina +3
105 Cleveland +2
119 Denver +13.5
126 LAS VEGAS +5.5

128 GREEN BAY -3
129 LA Rams +6.5

[Orbison]

Trying to figure out this thread...everything you posted here makes it sound like Carolina is the public play. Wouldn't your play be on on the Bucs then?

definitely agree that the Bucs would be the contrarian pick in that game

[ChuckyTheGoat]

definitely agree that the Bucs would be the contrarian pick in that game

I've tried to leave the definition of "Contrarian" open-ended in this thread series. I do think more tickets will be on Carolina, just based on how bad Tampa Bay has looked.

I think Allure makes a good point in the last sentence:
"Books don't seem to have much confidence in Tampa Bay either hence the low line at home."

The books don't make too many mistakes. Does the # look too low? Might be low for a reason, if the books are convinced that the Bucs are shot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky did you see my pick was rams plus 6.5 pts.it is not in the summary.

Agenda, I can tell you what I was doing. I was waiting for the Charger game to go final.

Wanted to see if the # moved. Didn't move much (if at all).

But I forgot about it. Good Luck on the Rams. Maybe McVay IS that good.

[agendaman]

no problem chucky.thanks now.we all have very interesting picks this week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I punched too early on the Titans. Henry now Doubtful. Doesn't look good.

Where will that line close?

[agendaman]

chucky the line is now plus 12 at bet-on-line.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky the line is now plus 12 at bet-on-line.

Thx, Agenda. I have a good bit of dinero down on the early #. Might re-bet it, but it may feel like a bad bet.

This gambling thing isn't ez. Is it?

[cincinnatikid513]

49ers -10 -110

can't imagine the benching of derek carr going over too well in the raiders locker room with the players, can't see them being very motivated niners are on fire have covered 6 straight ats easily see them winning by 20 points plus

[ChuckyTheGoat]

49ers -10 -110

can't imagine the benching of derek carr going over too well in the raiders locker room with the players, can't see them being very motivated niners are on fire have covered 6 straight ats easily see them winning by 20 points plus

Cincy, one question:
*What makes you think the BETTING PUBLIC won't lay the -10 here indiscrimately?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky the line is now plus 12 at bet-on-line.

Agenda, here is specifically what I was trying to say:

*I already have action down on TENN +10. (Got a little piece on +10.5, too).
...That's what you call a "sunk cost" in accounting terms. Doesn't look too good on a relative line basis.

*Yes, it re-surfaced at +12 when Henry was listed as Doubtful.

*My follow-up question is really: What sort of line move do we expect to see in the L24 hours b4 kickoff?
...I really think there's a scenario where this # bloats to -13.
...Think about it. Struggling team, looks like a mismatch game. QB is out, All Pro RB is out.
...Who is going to be betting the Titans?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, boys, I blew it. Vrabel is indeed throwing in the towel tonite.

He's setting up his roster for an "all-or-nothing" game at JAX in week 18. Look at all the "opt-outs." Needs to go into week 18 with healthy bodies. Why waste them here?

I'm stuck with a bad #. And a bad play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I butchered the Titans play for sure. One interesting sidebar:

*Notice how the market reacted on the Jax/Hou game.

As Dall went to -13 at HOU...Jax dipped from -5 to -4. As if to say...two can play at that game. If Jax has any injury doubts, why risk it?

Also, why play Lawrence more than just to keep the rust off? I had to look up the Jax backup. A CJ Beathard sighting?

[agendaman]

chucky-you might have an ok bet.dall may want to rest some guys.just win the game by say 7 pts. or less.run ezekiel and pollard.play good defense.