1. #1
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    NFL week 14 - Contrarian Angles

    NFL week 14- Contrarian Angles

    I'd lay out the parameters as such:
    1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
    2) Totals are fair game.
    3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
    4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
    5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

    That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    wk01: 5-2 ATS
    wk02: 10-0 ATS
    wk03: 10-1 ATS.
    wk04: 10-8 ATS
    wk05: 7-6 ATS
    wk06: 8-4 ATS
    wk07: 7-8 ATS

    wk08: 9-8 ATS
    wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
    wk10: 7-5 ATS
    wk 11: 4-6ATS
    wk 12: 4-5 ATS
    wk13: 4-6 ATS
    YTD: 86-64 ATS (.573)

  3. #3
    edawg
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    L.A. ramrods +6
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  4. #4
    jackpot269
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    jets +9.5

    Fading the Bills they are in 2nd place in the AFC but not playing up to expectations

    Jets have been one of the biggest surprises this year. Maybe the biggest for me! Thats a lot of points to give a team that has been playing good, they should have beat Minny last week.

    Cant say enough about how well the back up QB has been playing.

    The defense is playing good with Q. Williams becoming one of the best young D-lineman in the NFL I think he has 9.5 sacks this year

    Looking at the line right now on Bet-on-line +9,5..-110
    Last edited by jackpot269; 12-07-22 at 06:58 PM.

  5. #5
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Thanks, Jack. You sure it's not Jets +9.5?

  6. #6
    agendaman
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    baltimore plus 2.5 at -110.ravens just cannot afford to lose this game with playoffs looming.hundley ca run ok harbaugh a fine coach plus mark andrews.p.s i play mostly at bet-on-line and currently jets are plus 9.5.

  7. #7
    jackpot269
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Thanks, Jack. You sure it's not Jets +9.5?
    It is I'm crazy!! I need a long break! I'm on 5 week losing streak that's going to drive me crazier! So many games looked good until the last play or at least late 4th quarter. I'm not the only one I know but seems like lady luck has left town!

  8. #8
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackpot269 View Post
    It is I'm crazy!! I need a long break! I'm on 5 week losing streak that's going to drive me crazier! So many games looked good until the last play or at least late 4th quarter. I'm not the only one I know but seems like lady luck has left town!
    Thought that's what you meant. I hear you, these games are very tough.

    Can't take it too seriously. Good luck on the Jets, Jack. Take it ez.

  9. #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Summary of picks:

    102 LA Rams +6
    107 NY Jets +9.5
    109 Balt +2.5

    Good Luck, guys, and Thx for posting. Edawg has an excellent YTD record in this thread. Go, Rams.

  10. #10
    pologq
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    chargers +3 and +3.5 depending on what you can get for -120 or +105

    i think their offense will keep this competitive at home against a dolphins team that came down to earth last week against an awesome 49ers defense

  11. #11
    TheLock
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    Lions -2.5

    Vikings 10-2 and Lions are favored. Címon

  12. #12
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Summary of picks:

    102 LA Rams +6
    106 DETROIT -2.5
    107 NY Jets +9.5
    109 Balt +2.5
    120 CHARGERS +3
    Thank you, Polo and Lock. GL.

  13. #13
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by agendaman View Post
    baltimore plus 2.5 at -110.ravens just cannot afford to lose this game with playoffs looming.hundley ca run ok harbaugh a fine coach plus mark andrews.p.s i play mostly at bet-on-line and currently jets are plus 9.5.
    Agenda, good luck on the Ravens. I like your play:

    1) Granted, the contrarian angle = the backup QB. Catching the Ravens as Dog b/c of the QB situation.

    2) I mentioned the acquisition of LB Roquan Smith. Roquan has played four games w/ Balt.
    ...Since Roquan left CHI, Bear defense looks barren. No Bear wins, little resistance.
    ...Some BALT stats since Roquan arrived:
    *Avg Net First Downs = +7.5
    *DEF First Downs allowed (per game) = 14.0
    *DEF yards per game allowed = 263.0
    *DEF Rush yards allowed per game = 52.0

    3) With the short line, I'll be watching how much impact Tucker has on this game. Has to help having the best kicker in the game. Tucker's stat are pretty ridiculous:
    *He's around 98% on FG up to 40 yards.
    *He's about 90% on FG 40 to 49 yards.
    *You really have extend him beyond 50 to see any FG misses.

    I think your pts can play b/c of the Raven DEF and Tucker. The Ravens are only a few late drives from having a very good record. Good Luck.

  14. #14
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Good one, dawg. Great comeback win.
    Points Awarded:

    edawg gave ChuckyTheGoat 11 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  15. #15
    Nate rasta
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    Give me the Tennessee Titans -3.5

    Is it going to be a easy slam dunk win
    They win by double digits

  16. #16
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    Give me the Tennessee Titans -3.5

    Is it going to be a easy slam dunk win
    They win by double digits
    Will do, Nate. Thx and Good Luck.

    Stat I read re: Jax. 1-19 SU L20 road games.

  17. #17
    agendaman
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    nice gutsy call on the rams edawg.i should have live bet them.

  18. #18
    Nate rasta
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    My pic isn't really contrarian that much you can cancel it and I'll do another one if you like

  19. #19
    OldBill
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    im leaning on big dog +17.5 Texans at Dallas nmfw they go all in dallas after waxing the colts as an 11 point fav and they didnt do it until the 4th quarter

  20. #20
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    My pic isn't really contrarian that much you can cancel it and I'll do another one if you like
    Nate, you're good. Your track record speaks for itself. Good Luck on the Titans.

  21. #21
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Hey, boys. I decoded it.

    "Dan" from Kansas? Meet Danny Manning, my friends.

  22. #22
    jackpot269
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    Good job Chucky

  23. #23
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackpot269 View Post
    Good job Chucky
    Trying, Jack. I might actually not have a pick for week 14.

    Following your note re: Discretion. Lines are so tight this week. I waited too long on a couple games.

  24. #24
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Summary of picks:

    102 LA Rams +6 W
    106 DETROIT -2.5
    107 NY Jets +9.5
    109 Balt +2.5
    116 TENN Titans -3.5

    120 CHARGERS +3


    Edawg bags a nice win on the Rams' comeback win. Nate (10-1 ATS ytd) is playing the Titans -3.5.

    Good Luck, all. Enjoy the games.

  25. #25
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Summary of picks:

    102 LA Rams +6 W
    106 DETROIT -2.5W
    107 NY Jets +9.5W
    109 Balt +2.5W
    116 TENN Titans -3.5L

    120 CHARGERS +3


    Edawg bags a nice win on the Rams' comeback win. Nate (10-1 ATS ytd) is playing the Titans -3.5.

    Good Luck, all. Enjoy the games.
    Some good picks on the early games. Only the Titans come up short.

    Thanks. And Good Luck.

  26. #26
    jackpot269
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    Ill take that backdoor cover!! Tennessee may not win another game all year they have fell apart!

  27. #27
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackpot269 View Post
    Ill take that backdoor cover!! Tennessee may not win another game all year they have fell apart!
    Good one, Jack. Jets DEF had another good showing.

    Yes, I mentioned the Titans in other thread. They appeared to have control of the division. Jags put themselves in position to flip one game in next three weeks and then play for Division Home vs TENN in wk 18.

  28. #28
    jackpot269
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Good one, Jack. Jets DEF had another good showing.

    Yes, I mentioned the Titans in other thread. They appeared to have control of the division. Jags put themselves in position to flip one game in next three weeks and then play for Division Home vs TENN in wk 18.
    Tenn needs to get better on Defense but if the O-line dont improve it want matter!

  29. #29
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Summary of picks:

    102 LA Rams +6 W
    106 DETROIT -2.5W
    107 NY Jets +9.5W
    109 Balt +2.5W
    116 TENN Titans -3.5L

    120 CHARGERS +3W

    Great job on the picks, guys. 5-1 ATS.

  30. #30
    Nate rasta
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    Great week guys. Seems like turnovers made the Tennessee game spiral out of control. they're definitely trending in the wrong direction. They're usually very solid at home against mediocre teams

  31. #31
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    wk01: 5-2 ATS
    wk02: 10-0 ATS
    wk03: 10-1 ATS.
    wk04: 10-8 ATS
    wk05: 7-6 ATS
    wk06: 8-4 ATS
    wk07: 7-8 ATS

    wk08: 9-8 ATS
    wk09: 1-5 ATS (one push)
    wk10: 7-5 ATS
    wk 11: 4-6ATS
    wk 12: 4-5 ATS
    wk13: 4-6 ATS
    wk14: 5-1 ATS
    YTD: 91-65 ATS (.583)
    (vs -110) +19.5 units

  32. #32
    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckythegoat View Post
    wk14: 5-1 ats
    ytd: 91-65 ats (.583)
    (vs -110) +19.5 units
    lets go, boyssssss $$$$
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  33. #33
    agendaman
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    great job this week fellas.we all know it is very tough to beat the number every week.lines aresharp.but we are plus 19.5 units for the season.cash it gents.thx. chucky.

  34. #34
    agendaman
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    this seems unreal. viks qb k.gibson goes 31/41 for 425 yds. passing and wr. j.jefferson gets 223 receiving yds. and the viks lose.incredible.

  35. #35
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by agendaman View Post
    this seems unreal. viks qb k.gibson goes 31/41 for 425 yds. passing and wr. j.jefferson gets 223 receiving yds. and the viks lose.incredible.
    That's why they play the games. You think you've seen it all. Then you see something new.


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