[DiamondJack]

Germany v Japan



14. Total Goals OVER 2.75 @ 1.84/-119 (1u) Pinnacle


Germany have managed to keep only 2 clean sheets this year. Recent results have been goal fests like the 3-3 draw with England and the 5-2 win over Italy. Germany were the second highest scoring team in qualification for this tournament. Japan have scored 20 goals in their last 10 games. I rarely if ever play an over in the 1st game of the world cup but this fixture screams goals. At the last world cup Japan had 3 of their 4 games go over the total. Germany with Muller, Musiala, Sane & Havertz have tons of scoring threats. Japans main man Minamino has scored 10 goals in qualifiers and offers decent value to put a scare into the Germans.
I still think Germany's quality will shine through and they should come out victorious, but don't underestimate a sneaky good Japanese side.

LEAN
Minamino anytime goalscorer @ 5.00/+400 Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Jack, want to ask you a question about the CRO/MAR match:

*How much do you change Morocco's rating based on Ziyech (Chelsea) being in the squad?

I thought Morocco was pretty unlucky in 2018. Couldn't seem to catch a break. Really should have beaten Spain.

Morocco has gone thru some coaching transition. Ziyech un-retired b/c of the new coach. Man, I wish Morocco still had Renaud (the guy who is now head of Saudi Arabia).

The guy is arguably their second best player behind Hakimi. I was going to maybe back him to score but I need to see how Croatia will pla.y

[Yulia74]

cute

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The guy is arguably their second best player behind Hakimi. I was going to maybe back him to score but I need to see how Croatia will pla.y

Thank you, Jack. I think MAR can make some noise.

[lakerboy]

Why is Croatia ml so low?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Why is Croatia ml so low?

Older now. Not the same team. Wouldn't you think?

Also, low Population nation. Hard to think they get close to matching 2018 showing.

[lakerboy]

Older now. Not the same team. Wouldn't you think?

Also, low Population nation. Hard to think they get close to matching 2018 showing.

I'm thinking they do nothing in this tournament but you misunderstood my point. What I'm saying is that they are only+115 or so. They are getting too much respect.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm thinking they do nothing in this tournament but you misunderstood my point. What I'm saying is that they are only+115 or so. They are getting too much respect.

OK, my bad.

Yes, anyone looking at 2018 would expect them to be priced higher.

[DiamondJack]

Spain v Costa Rica



15. Spain win to Nil @ 1.67/-149 (1u) Bet365


I'm taking the tries and tested capping approach of take the better team in this game. Costa Rica are no longer the team they were in 2014 even though most of those wh played on that team are still on the team. They barely qualified for the tournament. At the last world cup they managed one point and scored 2 goals. They are my pick to finish bottom in this group.
Spain will want to redeem their premature exit in the 2018 world cup where they only managed one 1-0 win over Iran. They are loaded with talent as always. The last time these sides met Spain came out on top 5-0. Unless this is Saudi Arabia part 2 the Spaniards roll.

LEAN
CS Spain 2-0 @ 2.08/+108 Bet365

[korki]

What is that bet CS Spain 2-0 ? I cant find in my bookie

[Slow Fanta]

What is that bet CS Spain 2-0 ? I cant find in my bookie

Correct (final) score I think? Though the odds don’t make sense… DJ?

[DiamondJack]

Canada v Belgium



16. BTTS Yes @ 1.85/-117(1u) Will Hill


Both countries have plenty of talent up front and in midfield. Belgium is ranked #2 in the world not by mistake. I think Canada will have their hands full but with the ageing Belgium defence they should be able to play a very fast counter style of game that the slower Belgium defenders might make mistakes.
Form wise Belgium lost their last 2 games to Egypt and the Netherlands where as Canada beat Japan and drew Bahrain.. Lukaku is injured and not playing up front which I think is a big blow for Belgium.

LEAN
CS DRAW 1-1 @ 8.50/+750 Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Correct (final) score I think? Though the odds don’t make sense… DJ?

CS is correct score

[korki]

CS is correct score

OK... but odd was something like 5.... thanks for explain... GL into next matches !!!

[DiamondJack]

Cameroon v Switzerland



17. Switzerland ML @ 1.76/-132 (3u) Pinnacle

When I first guessed the lines for the opening round of matches I had this pegged at 1.50/-200 and it was the biggest discrepancy in my analysis. I'm sticking to my pick the better team strategy and making this my biggest bet so far.
Cameroon come into this game in a very poor run of form winless in their past 4 games including losses to Uzbekistan and Korea while drawing with Panama & Jamaica. The Swiss on the other hand beat the likes of Spain in Spain and Portugal back in June far more superior opposition then Cameroon. The Swiss were undefeated in the group stage that included Brazil in the last world cup where as Cameroon did not even qualify. The last time Cameroon qualified was in 2014 where they lost all 3 of their group games.
Facundo Tello is the match official and his games average 5.20 yellow cards per game. We are also still have had all these games without a red card could one be due?

LEAN
Yellow cards Over 4 @ 1.95/-105 Bet365

[-FlawlessKid]

Cameroon v Switzerland



17. Switzerland ML @ 1.76/-132 (3u) Pinnacle

When I first guessed the lines for the opening round of matches I had this pegged at 1.50/-200 and it was the biggest discrepancy in my analysis. I'm sticking to my pick the better team strategy and making this my biggest bet so far.
Cameroon come into this game in a very poor run of form winless in their past 4 games including losses to Uzbekistan and Korea while drawing with Panama & Jamaica. The Swiss on the other hand beat the likes of Spain in Spain and Portugal back in June far more superior opposition then Cameroon. The Swiss were undefeated in the group stage that included Brazil in the last world cup where as Cameroon did not even qualify. The last time Cameroon qualified was in 2014 where they lost all 3 of their group games.
Facundo Tello is the match official and his games average 5.20 yellow cards per game. We are also still have had all these games without a red card could one be due?

LEAN
Yellow cards Over 4 @ 1.95/-105 Bet365

Can't recall seeing a 3U play from you, love the double down. GL DJ, go get it!

[DiamondJack]

South Korea v Uruguay


NO PLAYS


I tried digging deep into all the markets and everything seems to be prized right. Uruguay should win,but I'm not backing them at these prices. The goal total looked tempting for the over as Korea tend to play an open style but looking at the recent results of Uruguay they, form wise trend to the under. Nothing in props in this one either I looked at Nunez as an anytime goalscorer but passed. I need to watch these teams and how they start this game. 7 of the past 10 games for Korea have gone over 2.5 so maybe the over 2 offers a tad of value.
I'm looking to play this In Game and hoping that If Korea get the first goal in the 1st half, I'll look to back Uruguay on the Corners over & the next team to score.

LEAN
Total Goals Over 2 @ 1.75/-133 Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Can't recall seeing a 3U play from you, love the double down. GL DJ, go get it!

I guess if you are not called Spain, Portugal or Brazil you don't get the respect that the Swiss clearly deserve having not lost to either of those sides lately

[lakerboy]

I guess if you are not called Spain, Portugal or Brazil you don't get the respect that the Swiss clearly deserve having not lost to either of those sides lately

Yup. Swiss defense isn't good though. Plus the draw line looks low. I have no interest in this game so good luck to you.

[DiamondJack]

Brazil v Serbia


18. Brazil -1 @ 1.78/-128 (1u) Will Hill


The last meeting between these two in the last world cup ended with a 2-0 win for Brazil and I expect pretty much the same in this game. Looking back at the recent wins by Brazil they beat Paraguay by 4, Chile by 4, Bolivia by 4, Korea by 4 Ghana by 3, Tunisia by 4 and only Japan came close losing by 1. Serbia on the other hand had 2 losses to Denmark & Norway this year where they failed to score. Serbia also could not beat Slovenia. They are a trendy dark horse pick but I think because they are playing Brazil first they know a loss is not the end of the world and I expect them to sit back and try to counter. Serbia's Mitrovic is also not 100% with an ankle injury. I'm backing the better team again 2-0 or 3-0 final.

LEAN
Brazil -1.5 @ 2.22/+122 Pinnacle

[habitualwinning]

If you bet the spreads in soccer like -1 and the game goes 2-1 full time do you get your stake returned as a push or do they consider it a loss? Very casual fan here but I want to bet the spread of an upcoming game so I need to know. Also why are the Asian handicap lines different odds when it's the same bet? Like for example they have +.25 and +.50 lines that'll be priced differently but it's essentially the same bet they both win on a draw or outright win both lose on a loss so why different odds? Thanks. Enjoy the write ups on the games as a casual fan it's like reading the cliff notes on teams I never watch play.

[DiamondJack]

2-1 you push. When it comes to asian lines -0.5 is the same as ML where as draw no bet or 0 or PK is the same bet. Sometimes books have a few cents off between ML & -0.5 so its always wise to check

[DiamondJack]

After the 1st round of games

8-8-2 +007

slice of pizza money

[Conqueror]

After the 1st round of games

8-8-2 +007

slice of pizza money

[DiamondJack]

passing on the first 2 games on Friday...but Leans are


Wales to draw +220 Bwin
Qatar +0.5 @ +137

[korki]

DJ explain me, why you trust to Quatar? First match with Equador, now... Which value have that team for you?

[DiamondJack]

Netherlands v Ecuador



19. Netherlands ML @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle

20. Netherlands Clean Sheet YES @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365

Aside from the opening game of the world cup where Ecuador managed to score a pair of goals it has been rough going when it comes to scoring. The previous 5 games they managed 1 goal and were left scoreless in four matches. Coming up versus much superior opposition this time around in the Netherlands who have kept 3 straight clean sheets versus the likes of Belgium, Poland and Senegal. Ecuador with a win already in their pocket will be playing not to lose so that 0-0 scoreline might rear its head but I once again am backing the better team to win.

LEAN
Netherlands win to Nil @ 2.75/+175 Bet365

[DiamondJack]

England v USA



21. England -1 @ 1.91/-110 (2u) Marathon


Once again looking to back the better side. England scored at will versus an Iran side that just beat Wales. The USA despite a decent start versus Wales showed their true lack of quality in the second half. England has been scoring at will with now 9 goals in the past 2 games. The United states are now winless in their past 4 games. The last time these two sides met the result was a 3-0 win for England and I'm expecting the same in this match.
LEAN
England team total goals Over 2.5 @ 3.25/+225 Bet365

[DiamondJack]

DJ explain me, why you trust to Quatar? First match with Equador, now... Which value have that team for you?

I was trusting their money I figured if they can buy the World cup they could of at least bought a result in it...clearly I was wrong

[DiamondJack]

Having family over for my sons birthday... so lacking time for a write up
a pair in the early games;

22. Tunisia ML @ 2.33/+133 (1u) Unibet

23. Poland ML @ 1.79/-127 (1u) Unibet

[lakerboy]

Love Tunisia.

[DiamondJack]

Denmark v France


24. Denmark +0.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Pinnacle


Frances last 7 games include only 2 wins and those were to Austria $ Australia. In those past 7 games they have 2 losses to their opponents Denmark both home and away 2-0 & 2-1. France had a stronger side not riddled with injuries back when they lost both those games to Denmark. The bookies once again give no respect to recent history. Even if Denmark win this game their next game line would still favour France. France won't be too unhappy with a draw having already blown away Australia.
LEAN
FT Draw @ 3.67/+267 Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Mexico v Argentina



25. Argentina -1 @ 1.93/-107 (3u) Pinnacle

26. Total Cards OVER 5.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Be365

If I go down on a big 3 unit play backing the team that I picked to win it all versus an overrated Mexico side so be it. The last 3 times these sides met we saw scorelines on 4-0, 2-0 & 2-0 all wins by Argentina. Mexico have only 1 win in their last 4 games and that was versus Iraq. Both sides need the 3 points here but with that opening game day loss the la Celeste need it more and I think they get it big.
Daniele Orsato is the official for this game and he was the man in charge for the opening game last Sunday when he issued 6 cards. He averages 4.78 cards per game and Argentina are the 5th dirtiest team at the world cup where as Mexico are the 8th. With the importance of this game being very high for both sides I can see plenty of cards.

LEAN
Argentina -1.5 @ 2.63/+163 Pinnacle

[jrgum3]

Mexico v Argentina



25. Argentina -1 @ 1.93/-107 (3u) Pinnacle

26. Total Cards OVER 5.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Be365

If I go down on a big 3 unit play backing the team that I picked to win it all versus an overrated Mexico side so be it. The last 3 times these sides met we saw scorelines on 4-0, 2-0 & 2-0 all wins by Argentina. Mexico have only 1 win in their last 4 games and that was versus Iraq. Both sides need the 3 points here but with that opening game day loss the la Celeste need it more and I think they get it big.
Daniele Orsato is the official for this game and he was the man in charge for the opening game last Sunday when he issued 6 cards. He averages 4.78 cards per game and Argentina are the 5th dirtiest team at the world cup where as Mexico are the 8th. With the importance of this game being very high for both sides I can see plenty of cards.

LEAN
Argentina -1.5 @ 2.63/+163 Pinnacle

I with you on Argentina -1. I think they win this game but I'm not paying that kind of juice on the 3 way line so I took them -1. Hopefully it cashes but I must say it is hard to be confident especially after I've mostly struggled with my group stage plays.

[JayLA]

Mexico v Argentina



25. Argentina -1 @ 1.93/-107 (3u) Pinnacle

26. Total Cards OVER 5.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Be365

If I go down on a big 3 unit play backing the team that I picked to win it all versus an overrated Mexico side so be it. The last 3 times these sides met we saw scorelines on 4-0, 2-0 & 2-0 all wins by Argentina. Mexico have only 1 win in their last 4 games and that was versus Iraq. Both sides need the 3 points here but with that opening game day loss the la Celeste need it more and I think they get it big.
Daniele Orsato is the official for this game and he was the man in charge for the opening game last Sunday when he issued 6 cards. He averages 4.78 cards per game and Argentina are the 5th dirtiest team at the world cup where as Mexico are the 8th. With the importance of this game being very high for both sides I can see plenty of cards.

LEAN
Argentina -1.5 @ 2.63/+163 Pinnacle

Should be a chippy game for sure. Might have to fund my Colombian sportsbook cause the local doesn't offer card market