1. #1
    KRIT
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    Pats Line Looks Short

    Indy only +5 on the road against Pats?

  2. #2
    johnnyvegas13
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    What did y expect???

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    Always bet money lines squares lay points

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    pologq
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    did you expect 7? i think it will be a close low scoring game.

  5. #5
    Shark
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    -5 is almost always a dead number for a fav

  6. #6
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    Indy only +5 on the road against Pats?
    My stacking percentages forecast has NE winning with 24 points to Indy's 19 or 20 points. The non predictive public gauge shows NE winning 21-17.

    Number and Total seem to agree with these numbers.

    But there can be more than one way to skin a cat.

    What were thinking, a TD?

    I will say this, NE doesn't seem to have much of a public residual anymore, Brady took care of that when he won a Bowl with Tampa.

  7. #7
    KRIT
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    I was expecting at least 7. I just figured with Indy basically giving up on the season trading away Hines, benching Ryan and playing without Taylor this line would be higher.

    Squares will be on Pats.

  8. #8
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    I was expecting at least 7. I just figured with Indy basically giving up on the season trading away Hines, benching Ryan and playing without Taylor this line would be higher.

    Squares will be on Pats.
    That's fair and while I say there is less residual on NE than before it's still NE vs Indy, so I agree about where we think the public should be.

    In reality though, as of now, from my sources, things are pretty split on this game but I don't really know who is where. Line seems pretty stable.

    We've seen it pull on and off of 6 and 5.5, but that's not as big of a move as it used to be.

    Seems stuck in the range, maybe shifting to gain traction and volume as opposed to reacting to large trades.

  9. #9
    KRIT
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    That's fair and while I say there is less residual on NE than before it's still NE vs Indy, so I agree about where we think the public should be.

    In reality though, as of now, from my sources, things are pretty split on this game but I don't really know who is where. Line seems pretty stable.

    We've seen it pull on and off of 6 and 5.5, but that's not as big of a move as it used to be.

    Seems stuck in the range, maybe shifting to gain traction and volume as opposed to reacting to large trades.
    Squares will eat up NE and the ml. Everyone perceives Indy as a bottom 5 team now. Back up QB and without their star QB. They also just lost at home to Washington.

  10. #10
    KVB
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    I hear you KRIT.

    Pinny has been welcoming the lower priced action on the -5, that's a bit suspect but it isn't Sunday morning yet and there could be some manipulation going on there.

    I think it could be foreboding and maybe we see this thing push to 4.5, unless the public can keep it up there.

    It likely will be the public supporting it.

  11. #11
    ThaTopMoron
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    colts got em last year

    pats win this by 10+ if they protect the ball... all it will take here

    only tuning in to watch Sam, Pittman and Pierce play and to see the cameras cut away to the old, sad expressions on Bill's face

  12. #12
    KRIT
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    When I make lines I always like to swing the line 6 points for home and away. If this were in Indy, I would expect Pats -3, which would mean this should be about -9 in NE. The line is short.

  13. #13
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    When I make lines I always like to swing the line 6 points for home and away. If this were in Indy, I would expect Pats -3, which would mean this should be about -9 in NE. The line is short.
    it's free money and they are trying to trick people

    cuts are creating scapegoats everywhere just fired the offensive coordinator

    couldn't hold onto a 9 pt lead at home in the 4th ... just lost one of their pass rushers to injury in the 4th ... played soft and scared on defense after going up 9... instead of continuing to play the way they did all game which had only given up 1 TD

    it's a 6th round QB's first road start and it's vs a belichick defense

    will take weird stuff happening all game to cover or win somehow... like the Colts vs Chiefs game.

  14. #14
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    ...will take weird stuff happening all game to cover or win somehow... like the Colts vs Chiefs game.
    Well, it is the NFL. The question is whether or not BellyChick can withstand the storm of weird stuff.

    Probably going to be a good game down the stretch, one of those that get turned upside down and inside out during the witching hour.

  15. #15
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Well, it is the NFL. The question is whether or not BellyChick can withstand the storm of weird stuff.

    Probably going to be a good game down the stretch, one of those that get turned upside down and inside out during the witching hour.
    Patriots 24 Colts 15

  16. #16
    Enkhbat
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    My concern is Pats offense could come out completely flat. Colts defense is pretty good.

  17. #17
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enkhbat View Post
    My concern is Pats offense could come out completely flat. Colts defense is pretty good.
    there won't be a pass rush they will play bend/don't break

  18. #18
    pavyracer
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    Do you know what Bill Belichek does to rookie QBs? And I think Colts are missing their #1 RB and they traded #2 RB to Bills. Colts may not even score tomorrow so all Pats have to do is score 2 FGs or a TD to win.
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  19. #19
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Do you know what Bill Belichek does to rookie QBs? And I think Colts are missing their #1 RB and they traded #2 RB to Bills. Colts may not even score tomorrow so all Pats have to do is score 2 FGs or a TD to win.
    yeah sam won't know what he's seeing and try to scramble too much and will have 1 fumble and prob 1-2 picks maybe 1 badly forced pass on a 3rd down and 1 tipped pass

  20. #20
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Well, it is the NFL. The question is whether or not BellyChick can withstand the storm of weird stuff.

    Probably going to be a good game down the stretch, one of those that get turned upside down and inside out during the witching hour.
    Like I said see you tonight.

    💪

  21. #21
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Like I said see you tonight.

    Been around all day. NCAAB doesn't start until Monday.


  22. #22
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Been around all day. NCAAB doesn't start until Monday.

    Good luck.

  23. #23
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Always bet money lines squares lay points
    No, they are the same thing and can be converted back and forth mathematically.

    I repeat, there is no difference between a spread and moneyline when it comes to the mathematics involved.

    It's all a price.

  24. #24
    KRIT
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    If it's so easy then yall take Pats.
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  25. #25
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    will take weird stuff happening all game to cover or win somehow... like the Colts vs Chiefs game.
    this is the nfl say no more

  26. #26
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    If it's so easy then yall take Pats.
    Weren't they-6 at one point?

  27. #27
    Al Masters
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    Yup.. it was even easier a few weeks back when the Pats were -5.5 at home vs the Bears.

    Same easy number.

  28. #28
    KRIT
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Weren't they-6 at one point?
    Yes they were.

    Quote Originally Posted by Al Masters View Post
    Yup.. it was even easier a few weeks back when the Pats were -5.5 at home vs the Bears.

    Same easy number.
    Pretty sure Pats closed at like -9 on that game. Huge difference between -5 and -9. Sharps are all over Colts.

  29. #29
    stevenash
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    Some of you aren't looking at both sides of the coin here.

    You do realize the Colts defense haven't allowed 400 total yards in any one game this season, they held Mahomes and the Chiefs to 317 total yards in that 20-17 upset. There are only six other teams that have held their opponents to under 400 yards in every game they've played
    Is it any wonder why Indy is top ten or better across the board defensively.

    The real question is where are the Patriots going to get their points?
    Mac Jones is awful, look it up if you haven't seen a Pats game all year.
    Jones and the Pats needed a phantom PI called to erase a pick six last week, or he loses to the Jets.
    The week before he got yanked and booed off the field before halftime against the Bears.
    Week before that, he threw three picks against the Ravens in a blowout loss.
    Jones was terrible against Trubinsky and the Steelers in a ugly 17-14 win.
    Terrible again in the Dolphin loss before that one.

    Davis Mills is having a better season, Jones is next to dead last in pretty much every QB metric, worst QB rating the past five weeks in the NFL, he's averaging under 200 yards passing a game, for a dink and dunk passer he's thrown three TD passes while getting picked seven times.

    That's a horrendous TD to INT ratio, worst than Zack Wilson, Davis Mills, everybody, dead last. and it's not even close.

    And Sunday (today) he's throwing to Jakobi Meyers (his primary WR1) NEP WR2 today is Tyquan Thorton, and the ancillary WR today is Kendrick Bourne.

    Having said all that about Mac Jones, do you trust him in this spot, against an top ten, underrated defense.
    I trust Ehlinger in this game much more than I trust Mac Jones.

    If the Colts put up 17 points, they should win outright, where's Jones with that group of receivers going to find 20 points? Shit, based off of recent performances Jones more than likely will gift the Colts at least 10 points.

    Ask yourself this, what's the better bet here, Jones and the Pats offense laying 5.5 points to the Colts defense, or vice versa.

    I've already put my money where my mouth is, Colts +5.5, best bet of the day.
    Patriots are just not good anymore, they're actually horseshit without a QB in a QB league.
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  30. #30
    mackave
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    nasher is 50000% right, good spot for the colts but ainít no one promising a blowout W by the pats , pats win this game by 3-4 on an perfect day.

  31. #31
    mackave
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    but if pats win this shit by 21 i wouldnít be surprised , donít bet ur house on either team

  32. #32
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    I was expecting at least 7. I just figured with Indy basically giving up on the season trading away Hines, benching Ryan and playing without Taylor this line would be higher.

    Squares will be on Pats.
    Why would they give up on the season? They are right in the thick of that division. Indy defense is better than the pats defense, by a mile. Bellichick has a great record against rookie qbs, but that was during the brady era. Taylor is out which is a big loss. This is a tough game to call. Glimore back in NE and he will come to play, believe that.

  33. #33
    stevenash
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    Any time I can get +5.5 in an even up pick 'em game I'll back the dog.
    Hmm, maybe I am capable of making a long story short.

  34. #34
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Any time I can get +5.5 in an even up pick 'em game I'll back the dog.
    Hmm, maybe I am capable of making a long story short.
    Lol. Yes, your posts have been too long for years. Straining my eyes the past decade. Might owe me laser in the future. Will come find you.

  35. #35
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Lol. Yes, your posts have been too long for years. Straining my eyes the past decade. Might owe me laser in the future. Will come find you.
    What can I tell you?
    It's who I am, it's what I do.
    lol

    Brevity has never been my forte.

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