A play I like this afternoon.

[stevenash]

Louisville / Wake Forest OVER 65.5

Why?
IMO there's a ton of offense in this game.

Hartman to Perry is a solid combination.
Cunningham, not the notorious passer, but beat you with his legs.

Take out UL's 24 points in their win last week, they've been putting up 30's and 40's
Wake can put up and has been putting up 40's all season.

What can stop this from covering is Wake shutting down the run.
Logically, on paper, the over is the play.

[johnnyvegas13]

Nash u like Phillies tonight?

[mikmik]

Damn nobody can score

[KVB]

Good Luck here Nasher.

I think Wake would rather run up the score and run with a team than try and shut them down with defense.

My stacking percentages forecast shows Wake winning the game on the road with 37 or 38 points to Louisville's 34 or 35 points.

That sound like an OVER to me.

Get em Nash!

[KVB]

Damn nobody can score

Tought first quarter, no doubt.

It's an uphill battle from here but not out of the question yet.

[Otters27]

Need wake forest to get back in the game

[KVB]

14 points in the first 4 minutes of the 2nd quarter.

I once conducted a study on scoring at certain points of the game in relation to the Total.

It was complex and involved ratings of how the teams were perfroming leading up to certain times of the game and certains times of scores. We divided the games into blocks that were smaller and more specific than the quarters and also used ratios of the expected Totals and rate of scoring, using a function and divisor to nomralize for the way NFL scores add up.

There were many actionable conclusions but I can say, obviously, that the chance of getting to the numbers has gone up significantly, something that can be concluded by more than just the addition of scores getting close to the Total.

It has to do with the how they bring part of what I always say...

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring. It's only after one can appreciate what they bring that one can truly appreciate how it's being brought.

[KVB]

That said, there is obviously still work to be done for both teams.

Rooting for you Nasher.

[stake1]

Gl Nasher!

[stevenash]

^
Thanks all.
Hartman, everybody knows about.
Cunningham is so underrated it's ridiculous.

Wake can core in bunches, we're still in this.
If WF can finish this drive off then we're really in this.

[KVB]

Yeah, let Wake heat up.

They seem content to score with their opponents.

[jjgold]

Paper guys never do great
Number (odds) guys do better

[KVB]

Paper guys never do great
Number (odds) guys do better

When you can blend the two, and take the faults of just the "paperwork" out, or make it more meaningful then you have a good shot and consistency.

You can also tell when the market is off.

Shit, if you can blend the two you can move openers and even start your own book if they'll let you.

[stevenash]

Paper guys never do great
Number (odds) guys do better

JJ, you seem to forget who you're talking to.
I've known you though the boards a long time now, you're amusing, you have some redeeming qualities, your heart is mainly in the right place, but you should by now your trolling antics don't have any effect one me.

OK, now that gentle reminder is out of the way, handicapping, like anything else you, or I can think of , has to start someplace, back in my daddy's day, before everybody had a home pc, it started with pencil and paper, usually graph paper.

Handicapping sports begins on paper JJ.
I don't tell you how to file legal briefs, or mow lawns, please don't tell me my methods don't work.

Carry on now.

[Allure]

Nasher are you seriously trying to argue with jjgold where it is still unknown how many people are behind that handle?

[mikmik]

Letsss gooo

[KVB]

Well, looks like Wake is nether trying to play defense nor score with the opponent.

That formula still works out as Louisville might bring it by themselves.

Leggooo!

[stevenash]

Nasher are you seriously trying to argue with jjgold where it is still unknown how many people are behind that handle?

The over/under on how many are behind that handle is 3.5
Now before anybody crashes the betting windows and puts the mortgage on the over, keep in mind that could be a trap prop bet being there are three shifts in a day.

But...
It could be just the linemaker mind f*cking us thinking we may be forgetting about the weekend shifts too.
Gun to head, my money is on OVER 3.5, that 3.5 is juiced, I have to lay -140, even still, over is the way to go there.

Not for nothing, I actually kind of like Gold, there was no argument.
He just needs to be reminded to stay in his lane however on occasion.

There's only been two posters here in the twelve (almost) years that I've been a regular that I wanted to smack just for GP. JJ ain't one of them, not even close.

[mikmik]

Wow lol

[stevenash]

Oh well, into ones life, some rain must fall.
If I won 'em all I wouldn't be crunching numbers for a living
Moving on.

[mikmik]

We won lol

[KVB]

That shit was crazy.

Just crazy.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KRIT]

Nice one Nash.

[str]

" Even when ya just showin off." Lol. (Lite beer commercial back in the day)

Good for you Nash.

[stevenash]

Thanks all.
You see post #20?
I wrote that when that backup WF QB threw that fourth down pick with under 2:00 left.
That's when I said "oh well, two of three ain't bad"
(I cashed earlier with my home boys UCONN, and hit the total of the PSU game)

Any-who, after that aforementioned pick, I said to Tessie Dog "come on baby, let's go out, daddy wants to watch Michigan game later"

I read Mik's comment when I came back from Tessie Dog's poop walk, (yep, she pooped like a champ in case you're keeping score at home, and I know you are) I read the play by play account of what happened the second after I walked out, I was like "Holy Mother of God"

That over, or so I thought, had no prayer.

To expand on KVB's statement, he knows, some you may or may not know that I play poker.
There's an expression players have, "doesn't matter how you get there, as long as you got there"

Yep, we got there.
If one wants to say I had luck getting there with those pick sixes I wouldn't really disagree with you.
There's two types of luck, there's luck, and dumb luck.
Luck is the residue of design, meaning you had a plan, the plan worked out, but not exactly the way you had it drawn up and had some help so to speak.

No need to explain what dumb luck, the other kind of luck means.
It's self explainatory.

If you tailed me, glad to help, we needed it.
If you faded me, sorry.

Best of luck going forward to all.
You too Coach.
(Come on JJ, you know your pal Nasher loves you)

[Otters27]

!!!!!!!