1. #1
    purecarnagge
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    Take Michigan at 11 while you still can

    I've been gone for a decade, but its nice to JJGOLD still around.

    Take michigan at -11.

    Before Nevada (which was a lightning delay shit show, that Nevada totally gave up on finishing at 1:30am CST) , Iowa had 1 TD to around 10 interceptions in its last 10 games. Petras air mails the ball to the 3rd row of the stands 80% of the time he's throwing a down and out. Iowa has played 2 teams that sucked.

    South Dakota State QBR 1% Completion 44%
    Iowa State QBR 13.9% Completion 46.2%
    Nevada QBR 30.5% Completion 53.8% (lightning delay game was paused they didn't finish until 1:30am on afternoon start and Nevada totally quit).
    Rutgers QBR 58.3 Completion 64.7%

    Career completion stats
    2020 57.1%
    2021 57.3%
    2022 51.1%

    Iowa has no QB. Well they do he's a 3rd year senior still playing like a freshman. Iowa's defense isn't scoring 14 pts to help this offense that can't move the ball. New line, and while its getting better, its still new. Its not the Iowa O-Lines that you hear about Ferentz putting out...its a down year there. Alot of pressure on his son who is the offensive coordinator, and Ferentz is still stubborn sticking to his philosophy to the end.
    Last edited by purecarnagge; 09-27-22 at 06:00 PM. Reason: spelling errors

  2. #2
    jjgold
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    Good stuff

    Iowa pretty good though at home

  3. #3
    purecarnagge
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Good stuff

    Iowa pretty good though at home
    Normally I would agree but the number 1 or 2 WR transferred to Purdue. This leaves the QB with a favorite target of a TE, and 1 person whose sorta better than all the guys who never do anything. Good running game still. I just think Michigan is better. Michigan is willing to adapt where Ferentz is going to do whats always worked. Either way, clinging on to a QB that can't get above 60% consistently is a problem. Ferentz has always stood by his players, and very seldom changed that once the season started. You aren't going to beat Michigan or score enough to cover with a sub 60% completion rate.

    I think this line moves to 12.5 or 13 even.

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Ok tailed letís get it

  5. #5
    SlickFazzer
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    Solid play for 1 unit.

  6. #6
    Brock Landers
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    Iowa wins it's home games, at worst a FG type of game. Anything over 10 is a gift

  7. #7
    pilebuck13
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    I canít be mad of Laying the favorite here.
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  8. #8
    pilebuck13
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    I just donít tend to mess much with harbaugh games.
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  9. #9
    Brock Landers
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    This year, we've seen dogs dominating. And people are lining up to bet a highly overrated road favorite.

    LOL

  10. #10
    pilebuck13
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    Brock Iím not messing with this one i think personally Jayhawks are in for rude awakening
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  11. #11
    pilebuck13
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    Look at everyone line up to bet undefeated Kansas as a home dog bonkers
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  12. #12
    purecarnagge
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Iowa wins it's home games, at worst a FG type of game. Anything over 10 is a gift
    QB play is abysmal, its been the same sad story for 3 years...3 years of Iowa fans wondering why there defense carries them to every win...as in scoring as much as the offense. The QB play isn't going to get any better and your telling me Jim can't plan for Ferentz?

    Other things
    -LB done for the season for Iowa
    -WR1 or 2 on depth chart transferred to Purdue unexpectedly. (QB situation is that bad he would rather go have fun at Purdue than play at Iowa). Smart kid if you ask me.
    "There has been speculation, and some have assumed since Jones transferred that he made the switch because he wanted to play his final season at the collegiate level in a more productive passing offense that would better showcase his receiving skills.
    That assumption was accurate. The loss of Jones and Tracy, coupled with some current injuries at receiver, has left Iowa with very little proven depth at receiver."
    - The whole stadium knows the ball is going to the TE or the 1 receiver they have who isn't that much better than the other guys who don't do anything...Iowa is not known for its receivers.
    - the game will be 8 in the box vs a weaker than normal Iowa offensive line (not bad but not great) looking for a QB to make plays which statistically he has 3 years of showing he can't do it.

  13. #13
    CappinTerp
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    Not on this one yet. The way I see it,we all know Iowa has a weak offense...so do the books,there for a line of 11. Hawkeyes will probably run down the clock to 7 sec. on every possession,run a lot and leave the rest to the defense........

  14. #14
    kyhawk
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    Hawkeyes are know for upsets at home. Tread carefully.

  15. #15
    Mike Huntertz
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    Iowa offense is the worst in decades and injuries on D
    Michigan's O rocks.
    I'll bite the 11 and go road favs.

  16. #16
    sweethook
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    im on it thanks jimmy .. gl

  17. #17
    purecarnagge
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    Keep in mind Michigan pounded Iowa 42-3 last year for the big 10 championship. Iowa hasn't improved on offense. Can't believe it but you can get it for -10.5 right now.

  18. #18
    chico2663
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    Quote Originally Posted by purecarnagge View Post
    Normally I would agree but the number 1 or 2 WR transferred to Purdue. This leaves the QB with a favorite target of a TE, and 1 person whose sorta better than all the guys who never do anything. Good running game still. I just think Michigan is better. Michigan is willing to adapt where Ferentz is going to do whats always worked. Either way, clinging on to a QB that can't get above 60% consistently is a problem. Ferentz has always stood by his players, and very seldom changed that once the season started. You aren't going to beat Michigan or score enough to cover with a sub 60% completion rate.

    I think this line moves to 12.5 or 13 even.
    Nice write up. Be prepared to take some shit from the Iowa homos

  19. #19
    purecarnagge
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    Nice write up. Be prepared to take some shit from the Iowa homos
    I am minutes from Iowa City. Purely objective and about the money.

    To those who followed. I hope you enjoyed the W.

    I use to be a regular here a decade ago...even betting quarters and halfers in live chat. Instead I just bet games that I really really like now. Its a lower pace, but I really do enjoy it more.

  20. #20
    jjgold
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    The last game you bet the more chance you have to win unless youíre a professional, and that eliminates 99% of us

  21. #21
    purecarnagge
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    The last game you bet the more chance you have to win unless you’re a professional, and that eliminates 99% of us
    Just because there is a board, doesn't mean you HAVE to place a bet. Pick your spots, look for games that look really good to you. Your basically saying you go to an Italian restaurant for the steak with that statement. Some weeks there is 10 games, some weeks 0 and some weeks just 3-4. There are some professionals out there that only bet a handful of games a year.

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