1. #1
    Nate rasta
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    Bankroll question

    If you're betting 5% of your bankroll and you start winning and your bankroll increases should you keep betting 5% of your original bank roll or bet 5% of your current bankroll

  2. #2
    iwantcougars
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    Yes, because winning is a streak, so later on you will have some losing streaks too. So its a law of averages you grow up and then shrink, but with discipline you will grow more in the long run. Thats why books still exist because they now in the long run they get their share

  3. #3
    iwantcougars
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    Since most of us have a limited bankroll, staying true its better. Just ask yourself whats better a 20 plays bankroll or 24-26 plays bankroll knowing that at any given moment you can win 4 straight or lose 4 straight (considring your paying -110 or less for juice)

  4. #4
    Nate rasta
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    Yes keep it the same? Or yes increase?

  5. #5
    pologq
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    i think the "rule" states it is % of your actual current bankroll. i don't always adjust though when my balance is higher unless i get to a number i feel good at.

  6. #6
    Mackballs
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i think the "rule" states it is % of your actual current bankroll. i don't always adjust though when my balance is higher unless i get to a number i feel good at.
    This is a good point.

    It should be a percentage of your overall roll. So the bet amount will fluctuate as the roll amount fluctuates, but the percentage stays the same.

    But it's up to the bettor to decide when to increase bet amounts. If you have a $5k roll and you get it up to $6k, do you warrant that $1k profit/increase in roll enough to raise your bet amounts? Or do you stay at the same bet amount until you get to $10k, etc?

  7. #7
    KVB
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    Oh shit, this again.

    If you know your edge, and are using a partial, not full, kelly betting scheme, then changing your bet size can work for you.

    But if you are taking a percentage of you"current roll" which means after bets settle you are betting different amounts because you are keeping the % constant, then mathematically, for the vast majority of bettors, you will get eaten alive due mostly to vigorish.

    If you change your risk amount, you are changing your breakeven point and it is usually not for the better.

    Here's a past post in a nutshell...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...Iíve posted over and over again that changing you bet size is equivalent to progressive betting and it is costly.

    Letís keep it simple and get back to basics. Take a set of 21 bets; give yourself 11 wins and 10 losses. Now take any starting bankroll amount. To keep it simple, bet 5.5% to win 5% for each bet and put the wins and losses in any order you desire. After each bet, win or lose, adjust the next bet to 5.5% of the new bankroll, just like Gunshard says.

    Now, if you didnít change the size of your bets, 52.4%, or 11 wins and 10 losses would result in breaking even.

    But Gunshardís plan requires changing the size of your bets after each play, changing the breakeven point. How much it changes depends on the percentage bet, but the higher the percentage, the worse off you are. With my example, of 5.5%, the breakeven point nears 54%.

    Gunshard should be thankful for discount books and vigorish, if he uses them, as his strategy raised his breakeven point, which was offset by the reduced vig.

    Again, the percentage doesnít matter; itís easier to use 5.5% for this exercise than Gunshardís recommended 5%, but the results are along the same lines.

    Try it again and again. No matter what order you place your 11 wins and 10 losses, after those 21 bets, you always have 97.1% of your roll left.

    In fact, after 110 wins and 100 losses with 5.5% bet each time, you would be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% of your starting bankroll...
    Be careful changing your breakeven point in sports, change your bets size as less often as possible.

    This is advice for the vast majority of bettors and may not be the best approach for someone very confident in their estimated edges.

  8. #8
    KVB
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    For those who don't want to understand the simple math behind it, just take the streaks.

    If you go on a losing streak your bankroll will be depleted and your percetnage of bankroll will be smaller.

    When you finally get wins, you will be doing it with smaller bets and need more wins to breakeven.

    If you have a win streak, the losing bet at the end of the win streak is actually the biggest bet you've made.

    As demosntrated above, the numbers don't "even out" along the way. There is erosion in the form of vigorish and it raises the breakeven point.

    Life is hard enough, raising the breakeven point should be done as least as possible.


  9. #9
    OldBill
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    keep it the same the amount increases but % always stay the same like so you start with $1000 you bet max is $50 you win now you have

    $1040 you can wager $52 so it stays $50 you won again now you have 1080$ $54 u can wager which you go up 1$ 55 to win 50

    you won again now you have 1130$ u can wager $56.50 or rather the same $55 you lost bank reduced to $1075 X 5% = $53.75 max

    ok round off to $55 your bank bal after bet is 1020 yaeh you won bank is up $1125 x 5% = $56.25or rather $55 weeeeeee u won again

    1070 was bal after wager bank up to $1175 X 5% = 58.75 max ok you can go up to $60 which aint gonna much more back than $55 so keep it $55 to win $50 or up to $66 to win $60 which is not good because that would be higher % than 5% 5.2 % just stay with closet $ amount lower than what you can go up until your bank is incrsed by $300 like $1300 that x 5% = = $65 you can wager so add $1 make it $66 to win $60 bank is after wager $1234

    uh ohhhhhhhhhhhhh you lost $1234 X 5% = $61.70 so it's back to $60 or better $55 to win $50 bank after wager is $1179 oopss you lost again $1179 x 5% = $58.95 so lower to $55 bank bal is 1124.00 yeah you win bank up $1229 so were staying at 5% and that ='s $61.45 max ok $60 would win back $54 so u like that one game and it a big dog 6.5 +275 to win wager the $60 you win

    bank bal is 1169 after bet the dog won you won $16.50 per every $5 bet which is 12 $198.00 won + you $60 = $258 added back bank is $1427.00 X 5% = $71.35 or $70 to win back $63 etc etcc just remember to lower bank bal on paper after bets and sticking with 5% will always keep u ahead of the books

    right now my bank is always at $200 every week so i can make multiple in game bets on 4 teams

    i have to still pay bills but most is covered with monthly income every one is different some have what is known as disposable income which is no big deal if they lose $5000 because they always get huge income monthly from investments or retire ment account etc...

    gawdddddddddddddd i would love to be there soon be able to gamble evry week $2000 and not worry because next month i'm getting back $8000 or more as the investments % grows

  10. #10
    Regul8er
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    KVB and cougars nailed it
    Do not, I repeat, do not adjust your bankroll percentages day by day! It will end in you reupping, which we need to be avoiding.

    Maybe once a quarter sit down, review your numbers and consider an adjustment, but this should be infrequent.

  11. #11
    TheLock
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    KVB can correct me if Iím wrong but, for the majority of bettors, starting off risking 5% of your bankroll on a single event is likely a quick road to a zero account balance.

    Wouldnít 1.5% or 2% be a better number for a standard edge play on a single event?

  12. #12
    Nate rasta
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    Thanks everyone. I would think if your bankroll increases by 50% to 100%, it's time to make the % from that bankroll amount.

    If your bankroll decreases by 50% from your original starting point I would just keep it the same that way you can recoup it equally

  13. #13
    OldBill
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    hey KVB no kelly bs or any form of martingale ever works because it's not if you lose but when you lose that can bury you i tried every which way live action on craps tables progressive betting and lost 100% of the time

    a losing streak of any kelly labby or martingale progressive bets will bury every one ask the wise guys and sharps you know guarantee they all will say hey i'll cover all your bets

  14. #14
    OldBill
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    KVB can correct me if I’m wrong but, for the majority of bettors, starting off risking 5% of your bankroll on a single event is likely a quick road to a zero account balance.

    Wouldn’t 1.5% or 2% be a better number for a standard edge play on a single event?
    depends on size of bank yeas 2% is recommended by the big hitters who have like $800,000 bank rolls most of us in here are working and limited to $300 per week

    X 18 weeks NFL season = $5400.00 bank x 2% = $108 per week max wager or rather $110 to win $100

    so say 1st 3 week you lose that $330 cut from bank of $5400 = $5070 X 2 % = $101.40 ok you can bet $100 to win $90 thats it no mater how many bets in game stuff you bet it's 100 total risk of course i know payouts are huge + on td scorer combos margin of victory etc...

    but lets run the flat bets $100 to win $90 $5070 bank down you win all bets go 5-0 thats 5 20$ bets each bet won back $18 5 X $38 = $190 won back + $4970 bal. = $5160 as you see your it's going to take a long time to get back to $5400 if you stay at 60% win rate

    bets stay at $100 using 2% until u get back to $5400 bal then u go for $110 to win $100 60 % of 5 wagers is win 3 lose 2

    as you can figure unless you do 4-1 or 5-0 every week after that losing streak gonna be few weeks before your bank is back at $5400

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    KVB can correct me if I’m wrong but, for the majority of bettors, starting off risking 5% of your bankroll on a single event is likely a quick road to a zero account balance.

    Wouldn’t 1.5% or 2% be a better number for a standard edge play on a single event?
    Yes.

    I would say 5% is too high, you have to able to stay in the game when you have variance. I know guys betting .75% of their roll as a unit.

    There's a point where your effort has to worth the pay, that's different for everyone.

    Even betting a flat risk, and winning over time, will eventually lead to the need to raise the bet. That too changes the breakeven, but it should be done after quite a few bets.

    Say you have $1000 roll and get aggressive with 2% of your bankroll. You might readjust your $20 bets when you reach $1500, then start betting $30. Maybe up to $40 when you get to $2250. Your bets can start to rise. Your next stop could be $3k and a bet of $60. You skipped the $50 bets.

    But likewise, while it's one of the last things you want to do if you are getting +EV overall, you might have to set a point where you adjust down if your roll is decreasing. Say you $1k got below $800, then you recalculate. Or say your $1500 roll drops belkow $1300.

    These are suggestions and aggressiveo ones, but you get the idea.

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    Thanks everyone. I would think if your bankroll increases by 50% to 100%, it's time to make the % from that bankroll amount.

    If your bankroll decreases by 50% from your original starting point I would just keep it the same that way you can recoup it equally
    Yeah, there becomes a point where you have get what you deserve (when banroll increases) or might have to consider not being reckless or too aggressive with unit size (when bankroll drops).

  17. #17
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    hey KVB no kelly bs or any form of martingale ever works because it's not if you lose but when you lose that can bury you i tried every which way live action on craps tables progressive betting and lost 100% of the time

    a losing streak of any kelly labby or martingale progressive bets will bury every one ask the wise guys and sharps you know guarantee they all will say hey i'll cover all your bets
    I'm generally against progressive betting schemes and do see Kelly as a progressive scheme when it comes to sports betting.

    That said, partial kelly with guys who are finding the prices of their bets close to even or -105, -108, -110 but not much more and those same guys exhibit an edge can be a good idea. There are other cirucmstances too.

    Partial Kelly is useful and shouldn't be tossed out automatically.

    But for the vast majority, try no to let your risk fly around. Try to keep it flat and let the bookies risk fly around.

    I love to turn the tables on them like that.

  18. #18
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    depends on size of bank...
    I disagree that it depends on size of bank.

    It's more about risk tolerance.

    But even then, I can see where the area isn't black and white. To some, 10% is 10%, it doesn't matter what the roll or principal. Their risk tolerance is 10%.

    To others, 10% of $1k is just $100 and they feel they are just risking $100. Now when they have a $100,000 roll, then 10% is $10k and feels like so much more risk, even though it's still just 10%.

    It is more risk, but there is a relativistic viewpoint there nonetheless.

    Everyone's situation is different here.

    I promised a year ago I would hit a lot of aspects of betting, this isn't just money management here, it's part of the psychology as well.

    Deep down I love this shit and sharing it. I'll try to keep it up.


  19. #19
    KVB
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    There's another part of this I'd like to add and it is psychological and financial.

    It's the notion that edges can be fleeting and when you've got one you need to be aggressive and progressive right off the bat and using some sort system, kelly or other, is a way to do it.

    I get it, I get this viewpoint and again it revolves around risk tolerance. I might consider, in some instances, taking a subset or portion of bankroll and dedicate to this aggresive trading.

    For my purposes, I need to keep the main variance, the biggest bets, action, approaches and campaigns, down as much as possible. So I end up taking partial roles and calculating bet size on that. I usually lump then into Aggressive strategies and sometimes they work out really well, and sometimes not so much. Such is the name of the game.

    I can't exactly say I have benifited overall by being aggressive like that, it's all seems to even out.

    When I was posting and tracking a ton of Fund plays we played with this idea a little bit in the analyses and tracking.

  20. #20
    jjgold
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    Itís the proper way to go but itís slow death

    Only way running up a deposit is betting most of it bet 1 no other way

    Nobody is grinding a profit here

  21. #21
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    It’s the proper way to go but it’s slow death

    Only way running up a deposit is betting most of it bet 1 no other way

    Nobody is grinding a profit here
    If the goal is to "run up a deposit" then yeah, high risk leads to high reward.

    You are wrong about grinding out profit. There are too many ways to do it and more opportunity than ever.

    There are plenty grinding out a profit in these markets. If there weren't books wouldn't be taking on such extreme risk management practices and charging so much gotdayam juice (in some cases). It just depends on your motivation to stay in the game.

    Think about it.

  22. #22
    pologq
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    going all in and winning is only sexy when the bet hits and you just doubled your roll quickly. when you lose that all in bet and have to reload to feed your brain like a drug it sucks.

  23. #23
    RangeFinder
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    "Let it ride, all of it." Trotter (Richard Dreyfus) in the movie "Let it Ride"

    Nah, don't do that, lol. I personally bet 2%. I will not raise or lower my bets until I have had at least a 50% increase or 50% decrease in bankroll. Like KVB stated, the vig eats you up by raising or lowering your wager size.

  24. #24
    Snowball
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    Take out half your bankroll to non-gambling account or buy alternative investment.
    Then, reduce to 2.5% of this new br.

  25. #25
    texhooper
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    For years and years I tried the ďrun up a depositĒ method and it would work at times but too often didnít and the cycle of deposit lose deposit lose gets very old. The main problem with the ďrun up the depositĒ stuff is youíre essentially banking on reckless behavior paying off to get you going, then itís almost impossible to turn that off.

    Get an amount of money to where 2% of that still feels like something to you, find a bonus, save it up, whatever you have to do, and use a 2% unit and never look back. For instance if you want to bet $50 a pop get $2500 together. I increase the unit amount once Iíve increased the roll by 25%. Iíve read that a time or two, and I think KVB recommended that in a video actually, or used it in an example or something. Iíve actually done this in the past when I had much less experience and I would end up chasing it all away eventually, but if you can see things through enough to get to that 25% mark and raise your unit a time or two, and if you know like I know how much money youíve given back to the books by being a goddamn idiot (I started tracking that several years ago and it started to become eye-opening), you will start to see the value in betting in this boring way and it will become awesome. I personally keep my action low too, my psychological makeup just doesnít like to deal with going 0-5 on a Tuesday or like 2-11 on a Saturday or whatever. Get a decent bank in place, use a 2% unit, treat every bet as a ďbest betĒ and if youíre anything like me things will start to fall into place for you. And beyond all that the number one rule is donít chase. I still screw up and make bets I shouldnít make from time to time but every night before you go to sleep understand what you did wrong that day and write it down if you must, make rules or guidelines for yourself, and just grow. So much of this is what works for you and truly understanding what works for you and really knowing what gets results and what doesnít is the best thing you can do. Like KVB says, track your bets and why you made them, and I would go one further if youíre a serial depositor/withdrawer and track money in and money out and know your ďoverall figureĒ as I call it. You might think you have it figured out because every now and then youíre pulling something out and it feels good, but in reality youíre just handing money away year after year

    Anyway too many words good luck to you if youíre not an asshole
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  26. #26
    lonegambler23
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    none of us are pros. just bet whatever the fuk u want.

  27. #27
    Nate rasta
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    going all in and winning is only sexy when the bet hits and you just doubled your roll quickly. when you lose that all in bet and have to reload to feed your brain like a drug it sucks.
    You're exactly right if someone has 3 or 400 to bet for the weekend nobody wants to bet 15 bucks a game.they want to use the money on one or two games and try to get hot. That's the recipe for disaster and a downward spiral of your money. Got to stay in the game for the long run

  28. #28
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonegambler23 View Post
    none of us are pros. just bet whatever the fuk u want.
    This is actually true too if thatís what suits you. Iíve mostly ascribed to this honestly. I got tired of never getting ahead though. And time will tell if I even can at this point but Iíve kinda reached a put up or shut up moment in my life as it pertains to sportsbetting. Like if Iím gonna continue spending time doing this, it canít just be a financial drain. At the very least I donít want to lose anymore money being an assclown. So thatís why I have decided to do it the way I do it now. Leftover money from paychecks doesnít find itself getting slowly sucked into the bookieís pocket anymore. Now I can take more guys on dates
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  29. #29
    Waterstpub87
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    Different point on the betting.

    Currently, I bet NFL (placed on Tuesdays, Settles Sundays), NCAAF (placed Sunday, Settles Saturday), PGA (placed Tuesdays, Settles Friday/Sunday), with MLB, NPB and KBO in between.

    If I am betting 2%, and lose 20 during the week, I am now at 2.5% for the weekend action. Could be even worse if something terrible happens.

    Once everything settles on sundays, I have the complete bankroll. Get what 1% is, and bet that all week no matter, even if I went up 30 units. I move up only $10s at a time, even if I increased by 5,000 that week. This tends to smooth things out over a season, rather than getting wrecked if I won early and came back to earth later.

  30. #30
    Nate rasta
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    I have another question. If you have a good winning streak for a week or two, is it better to cash out your winnings or keep it in your bank roll and try to build your bankroll

  31. #31
    OldBill
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    5% is the max % used by big money guys but others who have huge cash are are gamblers known as whales in vegas they own bussiness so they can wager millions in one weekend of nfl ......... and lose and just laff it off which makes me angry as fawwwwwk because they could use that money to help employees

  32. #32
    winz
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    bet 100%..the more you bet the more you get...just pick winners. though

  33. #33
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    If you're betting 5% of your bankroll and you start winning and your bankroll increases should you keep betting 5% of your original bank roll or bet 5% of your current bankroll
    Don't care what I should or should not do. And I am rarely the one who gets to decide how much I can bet. If I see a good bet I'll bet the max the sportsbook will allow and if I think that is too much, I'll arb or middle somewhere else. Then move on to finding the next good bet.

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