[stevenash]

This is something I do every season at the MLB AS break.

Some years back I was involved in a good discussion, the topic being perceived value v. actual (real value)
Long story short, perceived value is what the consumer thinks (in this case a futures wager) is worth, versus what it's worth actually.

If one thinks the Mets are a good value to win the World Series at +700, that's perceived value.
Personally I think that's shitty value as the true odds (see table below) are around +1300.

For this thread I am using current odds presently posted at DraftKings sports book.
I don't have the time to post tables from all the books, DK works just fine for this example.

I have tons of personal data bases, some are my own creations, some I borrow from sources that know more about betting markets than me, and some sources I borrow from outright.
(I'll always credit the outside sources, and make it point blank clear it's not my work, credibility and integrity means everything to me)

For MLB futures, I have found the most accurate, and I mean deadly accurate source are the databases baseball-reference.com provides, and if I thought what they have to say wasn't worth it, if it wasn't all that, trust me, I would not be sharing all this with you all.

The data is baseball-reference's, I tweaked this table by including DK's posted future prices, (column heading DK odds) the column heading "TRUE ODDS" are what I am referring to what BR.com believes the real odds are, I can convert moey lines into decimal odds etc. the column header WS% is what br.com believes the real percentage an individual team chances are.

Current refers to current record, average refers to all things considered, what an individual teams final record will be, and that WINS column on the right, those are the o/u posted number of wins you can wager on at DK.
Regarding over/under wins, Yankees and Dodgers may have locked it up by Labor Day, be careful there as they may be playing part timers, full time for a month.

My takeaways from all this?
BR feels there is tremendous all around in the Cards, as they feel they're just not going to win the NL Central, but win it going away. Usually they don't endorse chalk but this year they're pretty much saying Yankees take it all, with value to boot.
I'll post the WC, odds, the division odds a little later as the afternoon progresses.

Two final points, I am just sharing information that has been very kind to me in the past, I am not suggesting you tail or fade any of this.

Finally, BR's method is thus:
One thousand (1000) simulated games, based on each and every teams performance, up to the AS break, with rSOS factored in, and includes a regression to the mean value.

						Current			Average
	Team	DK Odds	True Odds	WS%		W	L		W	L		Wins
NL East
1	Mets	700	1300	7.40%		58	35		97.4	64.6		97.5
2	Braves	800	2170	4.60%		56	38		93.3	69.7		94.5
3	Phillies	3500	4170	2.40%		49	43		88.4	73.6		86.5
NL Central
1	Cardinals	3500	3571	2.80%		50	44		89	73		86.5
2	Brewers	1700	33333	0.30%		50	43		84.5	77.5		88,5
NL West
1	Dodgers	380	465	23.50%		60	30		104.8	57.2		103.5
2	Padres	2200	6666	1.50%		52	42		86.3	75.7		90.5
3	Giants	5000	5260	1.90%		48	43		86.2	75.8		86.5
AL East
1	Yankees	400	202	33.60%		64	28		108	54		104.5
2	Rays	2800	3333	3.00%		51	41		88.3	73.7		87.5
3	Blue Jays	1500	3225	3.10%		50	43		86.3	75.7		88.5
4	Red Sox	3500	10000	1.00%		48	45		83.1	78.9		84.5
AL Central
1	Twins	5000	12500	0.80%		50	44		84.6	77.4		84.5
2	White Sox	3000	9100	1.10%		46	46		83.1	78.9		85.5
3	Guardians	15000	20000	0.50%		46	44		82.1	79.9		81.5
AL West
1	Astros	500	1040	9.60%		59	32		98.7	63.3		101.5
2	Mariners	5000	3850	2.60%		51	42		88.1	73.9		86.5

[jjgold]

I don’t think the Yankees are going to win because they could be stopped in a series with good pitching

Nashy tremendous material

Atlanta live

[johnnyvegas13]

Nash u like cards to win the div at +150

looling at 2h schedule looks pretty easy

[stevenash]

Nash u like cards to win the div at +150

looling at 2h schedule looks pretty easy

Love The Cards at +210 to win the division.
(It was +210 at 8am, unless that got bet down too)
They got bet the fuk down from +5000 to +3500

						Current			Average
		DK Odds	True Odds	Div	DK	W	L		W	L	Wins
Central
1	St. Louis	210	-280	73.90%	32.21%	50	44		89	73	86.5
2	Milwaukee	-150	280	26.10%	60.00%	50	43		84.5	77.5	88,5

I love fading Boston to miss the playoffs at -115/+105
LOVE that bet, they have a 30 percent chance to make the playoff and the book is offering you even money.
Get real here.
Boston ain't besting out Toronto, or Tampa Bay, or even Seattle.

Here's the odds just to make the playoffs.

		Current			Average
Tm		W	L		W	L		Postâ–¼
Los Angeles Dodgers		60	30		104.8	57.2		>99.9%
New York Yankees		64	28		108	54		>99.9%
Houston Astros		59	32		98.7	63.3		99.80%
New York Mets		58	35		97.4	64.6		99.60%
Atlanta Braves		56	38		93.3	69.7		96.70%
St. Louis Cardinals		50	44		89	73		82.50%
Seattle Mariners		51	42		88.1	73.9		81.40%
Tampa Bay Rays		51	41		88.3	73.7		79.40%
Philadelphia Phillies		49	43		88.4	73.6		73.90%
Toronto Blue Jays		50	43		86.3	75.7		64.90%
Minnesota Twins		50	44		84.6	77.4		53.70%
San Diego Padres		52	42		86.3	75.7		52.60%
San Francisco Giants		48	43		86.2	75.8		52.10%
Chicago White Sox		46	46		83.1	78.9		41.30%
Milwaukee Brewers		50	43		84.5	77.5		40.50%
Cleveland Guardians		46	44		82.1	79.9		33.30%
Boston Red Sox		48	45		83.1	78.9		30.90%
Baltimore Orioles		46	46		79.8	82.2		11.80%
Texas Rangers		41	49		76.2	85.8		2.80%
Miami Marlins		43	48		76.7	85.3		1.60%
Los Angeles Angels		39	53		74.4	87.6		0.70%
Colorado Rockies		43	50		72.8	90.2		0.40%
Arizona Diamondbacks		40	52		72.3	89.7		0.10%
Washington Nationals		31	63		56.9	105.1		<0.1%
Chicago Cubs		35	57		67.4	94.6		<0.1%
Cincinnati Reds		34	57		66.3	95.7		<0.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates		39	54		65.1	96.9		<0.1%
Detroit Tigers		37	55		65.3	96.7		<0.1%
Kansas City Royals		36	56		64.9	97.1		<0.1%
Oakland Athletics		32	61		60.8	101.2		<0.1%

[KVB]

Seattle with ALL the value here.

Both to win the AL and the WS.

The opportunity for equity is high here with the possiblity of selling back constantly and still locking in some gains.

[stevenash]

Good eye Johnny, it's +150 now.
Grab it at +150 still

[stevenash]

Seattle with ALL the value here.

Both to win the AL and the WS.

The opportunity for equity is high here with the possiblity of selling back constantly and still locking in some gains.

I had the same thought earlier.

Sox at 50/50 (pretty much) to make the playoff with a 30 percent chance of doing so?
What am I missing here, 200 says they miss the playoffs.

[KVB]

The difference is Seattle gets in the playoffs and they have the pitching to beat some teams. They seem built for playoffs to a degree.

50-1 just dangles out there.

[stevenash]

The difference is Seattle gets in the playoffs and they have the pitching to beat some teams. They seem built for playoffs to a degree.

50-1 just dangles out there.

Solid logic, plus I love their bench manager, Scott Servais is the best manager that nobody has heard of.
Former catcher/GM, knows pitching inside out.

Glad you dropped by.

[johnnyvegas13]

Mets r gonna choke again deja vu again this year

div winners will b

braves

carfs

dodgers

[stevenash]

^
Loser of the NL East gets the first Wild Card.

Johnny, I just sent in Card (run line only) today.
+100
I'll play run lines with a road team I like, I like the Cards in this spot today,
I refuse to lay -150 and up on the road.

[pilebuck13]

Dodgers have the best pitching

[johnnyvegas13]

^
Loser of the NL East gets the first Wild Card.

Johnny, I just sent in Card (run line only) today.
+100
I'll play run lines with a road team I like, I like the Cards in this spot today,
I refuse to lay -150 and up on the road.

Lol I wanna take cards tonight but u know

dobe till football

[johnnyvegas13]

Hey Nash would u take Cleveland +450 to win the div ?

[pologq]

yankees are not worth a bet and i am rooting for them. astros beat them in a 7 game series still easily.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

BR's so-called true odds, based on analytics garbage, will put you in the poor house if you rely on it.

[goduke]

Yanks losing king was a horrific loss for them. Having him and Holmes as playoff bullpen would have been a serious problem Ala kc royals back when they had 7-8-9 inning shutdown bullpen.

[stevenash]

BR's so-called true odds, based on analytics garbage, will put you in the poor house if you rely on it.

Thanks for the pain staking analysis here.
Good work.

[stevenash]

Yanks losing king was a horrific loss for them. Having him and Holmes as playoff bullpen would have been a serious problem Ala kc royals back when they had 7-8-9 inning shutdown bullpen.

Brutal

[jjgold]

Houston matches up against Yanks

Dodgers or Braves NL

[stevenash]

Houston matches up against Yanks

Dodgers or Braves NL

Houston has the best shot other than NY to win the AL.
NY hates to play them.
Astros are always a pain in the ass to most teams.

[johnnyvegas13]

Fkkk Nash cards 2.5 back facing suspension vs jays as well

oh well they still have like the easiest 2h schedule in mlb

[stevenash]

Fkkk Nash cards 2.5 back facing suspension vs jays as well

oh well they still have like the easiest 2h schedule in mlb

Chill, Brews will gag, as usual, I know, they've burnt me in the past.
Brews pitching is still stacked, but they always find a way to give it up at the finish line.
Speed never slumps, Cards can score runs the way KC scored run in 2015.
They'll track them down.

[stevenash]

The database folks at br.com continues to amaze.
Last week they said Boston had a 25% chance of making the post season yet the books were offering even money.
Now the Sox are dead, I bet the Sox not to make the playoffs at -110 last week.

BR still likes Seattle, I'm not that confident, I'd like to see them in the playoffs, but they still have to finish ahead of Toronto and TB.

Flurry of Seattle money this week, now they're over bet, there's no more value in the Mariners.

		Current				Average
Tm		W	L			W	L			Postâ–¼	WC	Div	LDS	LCS	Pennant	Win WS
New York Mets		61	37			97.9	64.1			>99.9%	24.30%	75.70%	90.20%	49.60%	23.50%	10.70%
Los Angeles Dodgers		65	32			105.7	56.3			>99.9%	<0.1%	>99.9%	>99.9%	66.40%	44.20%	25.80%
New York Yankees		66	33			105.1	56.9			>99.9%	0.20%	99.80%	>99.9%	70.40%	48.00%	28.80%
Houston Astros		64	35			100.5	61.5			>99.9%	0.90%	99.10%	99.50%	60.30%	26.00%	13.40%
Atlanta Braves		59	41			93.1	69.9			97.70%	74.40%	23.30%	61.80%	27.10%	10.80%	3.60%
Toronto Blue Jays		54	44			89.2	72.8			89.20%	89.00%	0.20%	48.60%	17.20%	7.60%	3.80%
Seattle Mariners		54	45			88.2	73.8			85.00%	84.10%	0.90%	42.30%	13.60%	5.60%	1.50%
St. Louis Cardinals		52	47			87.4	74.6			74.90%	23.60%	51.30%	42.80%	17.40%	6.30%	2.20%
Milwaukee Brewers		55	44			86.7	75.3			73.00%	24.30%	48.70%	32.80%	12.80%	4.30%	2.00%
Philadelphia Phillies		51	47			86.8	75.2			70.20%	69.20%	1.00%	35.70%	14.20%	7.50%	2.80%
San Diego Padres		55	45			86.2	75.8			65.00%	65.00%	<0.1%	28.40%	10.10%	2.80%	0.80%
Tampa Bay Rays		53	45			85.5	76.5			63.40%	63.40%	<0.1%	31.60%	12.80%	4.70%	1.20%
Minnesota Twins		52	46			85.1	76.9			60.80%	13.20%	47.60%	27.80%	10.60%	3.50%	1.50%
Cleveland Guardians		50	47			83.2	78.8			41.20%	9.70%	31.50%	20.80%	6.00%	2.30%	1.00%
Chicago White Sox		49	49			82	80			31.60%	10.70%	20.90%	14.10%	4.60%	1.10%	0.30%
San Francisco Giants		48	50			81	81			17.00%	17.00%	<0.1%	7.30%	2.10%	0.60%	0.20%
Baltimore Orioles		49	49			80.3	81.7			14.70%	14.70%	<0.1%	7.20%	2.10%	0.60%	0.10%
Boston Red Sox		49	50			79.7	82.3			12.70%	12.70%	<0.1%	7.20%	1.90%	0.50%	0.30%

[johnnyvegas13]

Mets r gonna choke again deja vu again this year

div winners will b

braves

carfs

dodgers

I was right