1. #1
    OldBill
    OldBill's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    understand how odds makers make lines then become a big thorn in thier side

    it's very complicated process vegas uses then offshores copy what they put out

    1st off the team they use to crunch numbers is simply that numbers is all they do

    But the most important person at a sportsbook is the head oddsmaker. This is the person who creates the odds on any given game or event that people can bet on, also known as “setting the line.”
    The head (or lead) oddsmaker has unmatched betting knowledge. Oddsmakers are math experts with decades of experience who know betting like the back of their hand.

    n order to come up with the odds on a given game or matchup, oddsmakers use a complex set of mathematical models, formulas and computer algorithms. They also come up with power rankings based on key statistical categories, including strength of schedule and margin of victory.


    This allows oddsmakers to compare teams against one another and determine which team should be favored and by how much.



    Oddsmakers also lean on a team of trusted consultants who give valued input on what they think the odds should be based on their vast experience in the industry.
    After consulting their computer models and power rankings, oddsmakers will come up with a rough estimate of what the odds should be.


    Then they adjust the line based on a number of important criteria. This includes home-field advantage (typically three points in the NFL), injuries, weather, unique scheduling/travel spots along with specific head-to-head matchups.
    If a great passing offense is going against a depleted defensive secondary, that is factored into the odds. If a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back and didn’t get in until 3 a.m., that is also taken into account.
    What happens after a line is set ?

    Once the odds are finally set, they are released to the public in the form of the “opening line” or “opener.” Bettors can then pick which side they want to bet.
    At first, the limits are low. This means that bettors can only wager a relatively small amount of money on the game. Oddsmakers use this early period as a “feeling out” stage. They will allow sharp bettors to bet the game at low amounts in order to shape the line and make it as accurate as possible. Once they feel comfortable with the number they’ve set, the limits are raised.
    Then the market takes over. Oddsmakers will adjust the odds leading up to game time based on the action each team is attracting.

    and last of all THEY KNOW YOU they have decades of results that they refer too they know thier are packer backers galore there fore your paying a prive 1.5 to 3.5 points more no matter where they play

    every top team has higher spreads Patriots Chiefs Cowboys Buccaneers the defending champs

    it's complicated series using power ratings , home field , HC ratings strength of schedule who they beat last time like big deal they bet up on a team thats 1 -8 but now they face a team thats way better 5-4

    and sharps do not move lines we do millions of us betting $25 - $1000

    the sharps get 1st crack at the early spreads then head lines man adjust after that to release to public

    What oddsmakers DO NOT look into or read is Human emotion that where YOU can bust a book

    evry nfl team has revenge set vs div rival

    biggest upset ever came from Cardinals @ Seahawks every body and thier G ma took seattle - 9.5

    but Cardinals wanted to pay back from last year when seattle ran up the score to 58 -0 in 2012

    cardinals played like champions that game week 16 won s/u 17-10

    so im like smiling i took the spread but next game cardinals home chalked -4 vs 49ers i said ooo boy here it comes

    Kaboom s/u losers 23-20


    get the human emotion side right throw out the spread your winning 100%


    every team has flops after beating top rival like eagles after Cowboys win

    Browns after steelers win

    raiders after chiefs win

    any team after defeating defending champs

    saints after beating bucs 100% losers i think right now 0-8 s/u and ats

    it amazes me what vegas does like a team lost badly last game 40- 21 as a fav -9 ok they come home and say lets make em smaller chalk vs rival -3 kaboom lost again


    i'll post the vegas screw jobs in new thread just past 5 years is plenty

    get ready gents sept 7th we start thurs night Rams - 4 vs bills


  2. #2
    Roscoe_Word
    Roscoe_Word's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-28-12
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    it's very complicated process vegas uses then offshores copy what they put out

    1st off the team they use to crunch numbers is simply that numbers is all they do

    But the most important person at a sportsbook is the head oddsmaker. This is the person who creates the odds on any given game or event that people can bet on, also known as “setting the line.”
    The head (or lead) oddsmaker has unmatched betting knowledge. Oddsmakers are math experts with decades of experience who know betting like the back of their hand.

    n order to come up with the odds on a given game or matchup, oddsmakers use a complex set of mathematical models, formulas and computer algorithms. They also come up with power rankings based on key statistical categories, including strength of schedule and margin of victory.


    This allows oddsmakers to compare teams against one another and determine which team should be favored and by how much.



    Oddsmakers also lean on a team of trusted consultants who give valued input on what they think the odds should be based on their vast experience in the industry.
    After consulting their computer models and power rankings, oddsmakers will come up with a rough estimate of what the odds should be.


    Then they adjust the line based on a number of important criteria. This includes home-field advantage (typically three points in the NFL), injuries, weather, unique scheduling/travel spots along with specific head-to-head matchups.
    If a great passing offense is going against a depleted defensive secondary, that is factored into the odds. If a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back and didn’t get in until 3 a.m., that is also taken into account.
    What happens after a line is set ?

    Once the odds are finally set, they are released to the public in the form of the “opening line” or “opener.” Bettors can then pick which side they want to bet.
    At first, the limits are low. This means that bettors can only wager a relatively small amount of money on the game. Oddsmakers use this early period as a “feeling out” stage. They will allow sharp bettors to bet the game at low amounts in order to shape the line and make it as accurate as possible. Once they feel comfortable with the number they’ve set, the limits are raised.
    Then the market takes over. Oddsmakers will adjust the odds leading up to game time based on the action each team is attracting.

    and last of all THEY KNOW YOU they have decades of results that they refer too they know thier are packer backers galore there fore your paying a prive 1.5 to 3.5 points more no matter where they play

    every top team has higher spreads Patriots Chiefs Cowboys Buccaneers the defending champs

    it's complicated series using power ratings , home field , HC ratings strength of schedule who they beat last time like big deal they bet up on a team thats 1 -8 but now they face a team thats way better 5-4

    and sharps do not move lines we do millions of us betting $25 - $1000

    the sharps get 1st crack at the early spreads then head lines man adjust after that to release to public

    What oddsmakers DO NOT look into or read is Human emotion that where YOU can bust a book

    evry nfl team has revenge set vs div rival

    biggest upset ever came from Cardinals @ Seahawks every body and thier G ma took seattle - 9.5

    but Cardinals wanted to pay back from last year when seattle ran up the score to 58 -0 in 2012

    cardinals played like champions that game week 16 won s/u 17-10

    so im like smiling i took the spread but next game cardinals home chalked -4 vs 49ers i said ooo boy here it comes

    Kaboom s/u losers 23-20


    get the human emotion side right throw out the spread your winning 100%


    every team has flops after beating top rival like eagles after Cowboys win

    Browns after steelers win

    raiders after chiefs win

    any team after defeating defending champs

    saints after beating bucs 100% losers i think right now 0-8 s/u and ats

    it amazes me what vegas does like a team lost badly last game 40- 21 as a fav -9 ok they come home and say lets make em smaller chalk vs rival -3 kaboom lost again


    i'll post the vegas screw jobs in new thread just past 5 years is plenty

    get ready gents sept 7th we start thurs night Rams - 4 vs bills

    Good post, brother Bill................GL this season.............

  3. #3
    RangeFinder
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    There are only a handful of quants setting the number now. The rest follow like penguins.

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Yes most just copy

    Quote Originally Posted by RangeFinder View Post
    There are only a handful of quants setting the number now. The rest follow like penguins.

  5. #5
    OldBill
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    keep this thraed up

    my handicapping system is simple the only thing that counts is what the final score is

    like say favored team scored 500 points after 10 weeks and allowwed 320 so they are + 180 divide by ten = +18

    the other team is losing like crazy only scored 200 points but alloweed 390 they are - 190 = -19 so the real differnce bewteen these two is 37 points adding the negative to pos numbers line is on fav -10 leaves them at plus +8 dog is reduced to -9 now the differnce is 17

    and most times that will be margin of victory

    but take into account teams schedule the big chalk might be looking ahaed to revenge a loss from last year to div rival or conf rival and they will not play the A game

    it's known as trap games and every team will faill in that spot

  6. #6
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldBill View Post
    it's very complicated process vegas uses then offshores copy what they put out

    1st off the team they use to crunch numbers is simply that numbers is all they do

    But the most important person at a sportsbook is the head oddsmaker. This is the person who creates the odds on any given game or event that people can bet on, also known as “setting the line.”
    The head (or lead) oddsmaker has unmatched betting knowledge. Oddsmakers are math experts with decades of experience who know betting like the back of their hand.

    n order to come up with the odds on a given game or matchup, oddsmakers use a complex set of mathematical models, formulas and computer algorithms. They also come up with power rankings based on key statistical categories, including strength of schedule and margin of victory.


    This allows oddsmakers to compare teams against one another and determine which team should be favored and by how much.



    Oddsmakers also lean on a team of trusted consultants who give valued input on what they think the odds should be based on their vast experience in the industry.
    After consulting their computer models and power rankings, oddsmakers will come up with a rough estimate of what the odds should be.


    Then they adjust the line based on a number of important criteria. This includes home-field advantage (typically three points in the NFL), injuries, weather, unique scheduling/travel spots along with specific head-to-head matchups.
    If a great passing offense is going against a depleted defensive secondary, that is factored into the odds. If a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back and didn’t get in until 3 a.m., that is also taken into account.
    What happens after a line is set ?

    Once the odds are finally set, they are released to the public in the form of the “opening line” or “opener.” Bettors can then pick which side they want to bet.
    At first, the limits are low. This means that bettors can only wager a relatively small amount of money on the game. Oddsmakers use this early period as a “feeling out” stage. They will allow sharp bettors to bet the game at low amounts in order to shape the line and make it as accurate as possible. Once they feel comfortable with the number they’ve set, the limits are raised.
    Then the market takes over. Oddsmakers will adjust the odds leading up to game time based on the action each team is attracting.

    and last of all THEY KNOW YOU they have decades of results that they refer too they know thier are packer backers galore there fore your paying a prive 1.5 to 3.5 points more no matter where they play

    every top team has higher spreads Patriots Chiefs Cowboys Buccaneers the defending champs

    it's complicated series using power ratings , home field , HC ratings strength of schedule who they beat last time like big deal they bet up on a team thats 1 -8 but now they face a team thats way better 5-4

    and sharps do not move lines we do millions of us betting $25 - $1000

    the sharps get 1st crack at the early spreads then head lines man adjust after that to release to public

    What oddsmakers DO NOT look into or read is Human emotion that where YOU can bust a book

    evry nfl team has revenge set vs div rival

    biggest upset ever came from Cardinals @ Seahawks every body and thier G ma took seattle - 9.5

    but Cardinals wanted to pay back from last year when seattle ran up the score to 58 -0 in 2012

    cardinals played like champions that game week 16 won s/u 17-10

    so im like smiling i took the spread but next game cardinals home chalked -4 vs 49ers i said ooo boy here it comes

    Kaboom s/u losers 23-20


    get the human emotion side right throw out the spread your winning 100%


    every team has flops after beating top rival like eagles after Cowboys win

    Browns after steelers win

    raiders after chiefs win

    any team after defeating defending champs

    saints after beating bucs 100% losers i think right now 0-8 s/u and ats

    it amazes me what vegas does like a team lost badly last game 40- 21 as a fav -9 ok they come home and say lets make em smaller chalk vs rival -3 kaboom lost again


    i'll post the vegas screw jobs in new thread just past 5 years is plenty

    get ready gents sept 7th we start thurs night Rams - 4 vs bills

    You went astray in the first sentence. Line does not originate in Vegas anymore.

    And to say sharps don't lines, million of "us" do. lol no
    175 pts

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  7. #7
    pologq
    Only 2 Girls Short of a Threesome
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    rams are +2.5 against the bills, bill

  8. #8
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    You went astray in the first sentence. Line does not originate in Vegas anymore.

    And to say sharps don't lines, million of "us" do. lol no
    Right I mean I’m no scientist but there’s very little reason for books to move a line unless influenced by sharp action. They don’t really care about “us”
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  9. #9
    KVB
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    Never forget, no line is official until it's gone to BigDaddyQH and his friends first. This is how they used to get Alabama -210 before it came out to everyone else at -5000.

  10. #10
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Never forget, no line is official until it's gone to BigDaddyQH and his friends first. This is how they used to get Alabama -210 before it came out to everyone else at -5000.
    Now this is the content we need from you KVB
    Points Awarded:

    KVB gave texhooper 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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