1. #1
    tmoible
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    Can the Baltimore Orioles go to playoff?

    I look at the Baltimore Orioles schedule,the red hot
    Orioles have a chance get to playoff.They still have a lot of game vs blue ray,the schedule is not easy,but if get in who know baseball

  2. #2
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Bro you need to start posting your plays before the game starts. Yes, it would be so we can fade you but letís be honest, you are going to lose anyways and it would give you some good karma.

    And yes the Oís can probably get in. Depending on who they face in the wild card but they do have a chance. They are playing very well.

  3. #3
    pologq
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    the blue rays are tough

    got to watch for the green sox of chicago

  4. #4
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    the blue rays are tough

    got to watch for the green sox of chicago

  5. #5
    stake1
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    not without mancini's bat. They will level off. Fan graphs has their updated odds to take a wild-card spot at 4.8%
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  6. #6
    pologq
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    orioles have a decent shot and are worth a flier bet imo

  7. #7
    Fishhead
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    ONE GAME behind the M's in the WILD CARD
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  8. #8
    pologq
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    i really am impressed with the turnaround. nice to see.

  9. #9
    KiDBaZkiT
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    This dude is starting to piss me the fukk off. He wont post a play before game time when we all know he is auto fade. Makes these stupid ass threads and dips, doesn’t even respond. What’s the point in making the thread you Euro trash illiterate piece of shit???

  10. #10
    pologq
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    why start a thread and not respond when people respond with their opinion

  11. #11
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    why start a thread and not respond when people respond with their opinion
    Is he in the Baltimore organization perhaps?
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  12. #12
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    Is he in the Baltimore organization perhaps?
    This tmoible is an illiterate piece of shit that contributes nothing. Guy claims he gonna quit every other week and won’t ever give us his plays pre game. Can’t stand this euro trash foreskin having sack of shit.

  13. #13
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    Is he in the Baltimore organization perhaps?
    he is chris davis

  14. #14
    stevenash
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    Can the Orioles make the playoffs?
    Anything is possible.

    This is what they have going against them though.
    Baltimore is currently fourth in their own division.
    They are two full games out of third place, and three full games at of second place.
    And that's just in their own division.

    The Yankees have clinched the East
    The Astros have clinched the West.
    (Not mathematically, but is would have to rain for forty days and forty nights if that doesn't happen)

    There will be no Wild Card team from the AL Central, and very more than likely the Twins win that AL Central, the White Sox and Cleveland all are in the division title mix, but it's the Twins to lose, and will host a WC series with Houston and New York earning byes and are automatically hosting a ALDS series

    Three teams in each league get a WC berth.
    The best of the rest are (in order) Jays, Mariners, Rays, and then the Orioles.

    The O's will need to pretty much need to complete the sweep tonight and Wednesday against the second place Blue Jays, beat Boston after that in the single game make up game. Then this up coming weekend fly down to Florida, and beat the team you're really hunting down the Rays, and beat them at least three out of four. A 2-2 split hurts more than it helps. a split gains you nothing, and just takes valuable dates off the calendar.

    Seven games in seven days, all against division rivals, only the single game Red Sox have a worse record, but know this, they aren't Nancy Boy pushovers, a train wreck this season, yes, a pushover, hardly.

    Three and four or worse in the next seven days is a disaster, ideally you want six and one, five and two is imperative.
    If Baltimore can go five and two in seven days, talk to me next week.

    The Mainers aren't going to help you, they have pushovers left to play, like Texas, and Oakland, and KC Royals, and Tigers, and the Nats.
    The Mariners are much better, the next time the Mainers come back east will be in the playoffs, or next year, and the O's aren't catching them. Forget about it.

    For the Orioles to make the post season, they have to win this week, continue winning.
    The Rays and Jays have nine games left, ideally you would need Toronto to beat them at least six out of nine to nab that third and last spot, because as of right now, it's clearly Seattle and Toronto in as WC's with Baltimore needing to catch and surpass Tampa Bay for the final spot.

    I have my own databases, BR.com database is without question the most accurate.
    They give the Orioles a 40 percent chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot.

    The following chart is from BR.com, and updated daily.
    The data is based on 1000 simulated computer games based on the performances of all teams to date this season, and projected based on the teams games yet to be played on the schedule, and includes a regression to the mean factor.

    The rSOS means remaining strength of schedule, average means what is the most likely final records, POST means percentage chance to make the post season, and so on.

    I've been leaning on this data for years, trust me, it's deadly accurate.
    The Orioles have a 40 percent chance, 40 percent translates into +150 implied odds.
    So, if you can get say +180 or better om the O's making the playoffs, there's your value bet.
    I would need better than +200, but BR's numbers are usually spot on, so I'll pass on fading Baltimore or fading them.



    Current Average
    Tm D rSOS W L W L Post WC Div
    Toronto Blue Jays E 0.3 60 49 88.3 73.7 85.00% 84.90% <0.1%
    Tampa Bay Rays E 0.5 58 50 84.8 77.2 55.50% 55.50% <0.1%
    Baltimore Orioles E 0.3 57 52 83.5 78.5 39.10% 39.10% <0.1%
    Minnesota Twins C 0 57 51 84.5 77.5 55.80% 13.50% 42.30%
    Cleveland Guardians C -0.2 56 52 83.3 78.7 43.00% 11.90% 31.10%
    Chicago White Sox C -0.3 55 53 82.5 79.5 34.90% 8.30% 26.60%
    Seattle Mariners W -0.4 59 52 87.1 74.9 80.50% 80.40% 0.10%
    And the Orioles remaining schedule is not as soft as you think it is.
    They are better than Detroit and Boston right now, but the Tigers aren't that much of a pushover.
    Nine games here are 'gimmes'
    Gm# Date Tm Opp
    110 Tuesday, Aug 9 preview BAL TOR
    111 Wednesday, Aug 10 preview BAL TOR
    112 Thursday, Aug 11 preview BAL @ BOS
    113 Friday, Aug 12 preview BAL @ TBR
    114 Saturday, Aug 13 preview BAL @ TBR
    115 Sunday, Aug 14 preview BAL @ TBR
    116 Monday, Aug 15 preview BAL @ TOR
    117 Tuesday, Aug 16 preview BAL @ TOR
    118 Wednesday, Aug 17 preview BAL @ TOR
    119 Thursday, Aug 18 preview BAL CHC
    120 Friday, Aug 19 preview BAL BOS
    121 Saturday, Aug 20 preview BAL BOS
    122 Sunday, Aug 21 preview BAL BOS
    123 Tuesday, Aug 23 preview BAL CHW
    124 Wednesday, Aug 24 preview BAL CHW
    125 Thursday, Aug 25 preview BAL CHW
    126 Friday, Aug 26 preview BAL @ HOU
    127 Saturday, Aug 27 preview BAL @ HOU
    128 Sunday, Aug 28 preview BAL @ HOU
    129 Tuesday, Aug 30 preview BAL @ CLE
    130 Wednesday, Aug 31 preview BAL @ CLE
    131 Thursday, Sep 1 preview BAL @ CLE
    132 Friday, Sep 2 preview BAL OAK
    133 Saturday, Sep 3 preview BAL OAK
    134 Sunday, Sep 4 preview BAL OAK
    135 Monday, Sep 5 preview BAL TOR
    136 Tuesday, Sep 6 preview BAL TOR
    137 Wednesday, Sep 7 preview BAL TOR
    138 Friday, Sep 9 preview BAL BOS
    139 Saturday, Sep 10 preview BAL BOS
    140 Sunday, Sep 11 preview BAL BOS
    141 Tuesday, Sep 13 preview BAL @ WSN
    142 Wednesday, Sep 14 preview BAL @ WSN
    143 Friday, Sep 16 preview BAL @ TOR
    144 Saturday, Sep 17 preview BAL @ TOR
    145 Sunday, Sep 18 preview BAL @ TOR
    146 Monday, Sep 19 preview BAL DET
    147 Tuesday, Sep 20 preview BAL DET
    148 Wednesday, Sep 21 preview BAL DET
    149 Thursday, Sep 22 preview BAL HOU
    150 Friday, Sep 23 preview BAL HOU
    151 Saturday, Sep 24 preview BAL HOU
    152 Sunday, Sep 25 preview BAL HOU
    153 Monday, Sep 26 preview BAL @ BOS
    154 Tuesday, Sep 27 preview BAL @ BOS
    155 Wednesday, Sep 28 preview BAL @ BOS
    156 Thursday, Sep 29 preview BAL @ BOS
    157 Friday, Sep 30 preview BAL @ NYY
    158 Saturday, Oct 1 preview BAL @ NYY
    159 Sunday, Oct 2 preview BAL @ NYY
    160 Monday, Oct 3 preview BAL TOR
    161 Tuesday, Oct 4 preview BAL TOR
    162 Wednesday, Oct 5 preview BAL TOR

  15. #15
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Great breakdown Nash, too bad this uncircumcised Euro trash is incapable of reading it and wonít be able to respond with a point of conversation.

  16. #16
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Can the Orioles make the playoffs?
    Anything is possible.

    This is what they have going against them though.
    Baltimore is currently fourth in their own division.
    They are two full games out of third place, and three full games at of second place.
    And that's just in their own division.

    The Yankees have clinched the East
    The Astros have clinched the West.
    (Not mathematically, but is would have to rain for forty days and forty nights if that doesn't happen)

    There will be no Wild Card team from the AL Central, and very more than likely the Twins win that AL Central, the White Sox and Cleveland all are in the division title mix, but it's the Twins to lose, and will host a WC series with Houston and New York earning byes and are automatically hosting a ALDS series

    Three teams in each league get a WC berth.
    The best of the rest are (in order) Jays, Mariners, Rays, and then the Orioles.

    The O's will need to pretty much need to complete the sweep tonight and Wednesday against the second place Blue Jays, beat Boston after that in the single game make up game. Then this up coming weekend fly down to Florida, and beat the team you're really hunting down the Rays, and beat them at least three out of four. A 2-2 split hurts more than it helps. a split gains you nothing, and just takes valuable dates off the calendar.

    Seven games in seven days, all against division rivals, only the single game Red Sox have a worse record, but know this, they aren't Nancy Boy pushovers, a train wreck this season, yes, a pushover, hardly.

    Three and four or worse in the next seven days is a disaster, ideally you want six and one, five and two is imperative.
    If Baltimore can go five and two in seven days, talk to me next week.

    The Mainers aren't going to help you, they have pushovers left to play, like Texas, and Oakland, and KC Royals, and Tigers, and the Nats.
    The Mariners are much better, the next time the Mainers come back east will be in the playoffs, or next year, and the O's aren't catching them. Forget about it.

    For the Orioles to make the post season, they have to win this week, continue winning.
    The Rays and Jays have nine games left, ideally you would need Toronto to beat them at least six out of nine to nab that third and last spot, because as of right now, it's clearly Seattle and Toronto in as WC's with Baltimore needing to catch and surpass Tampa Bay for the final spot.

    I have my own databases, BR.com database is without question the most accurate.
    They give the Orioles a 40 percent chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot.

    The following chart is from BR.com, and updated daily.
    The data is based on 1000 simulated computer games based on the performances of all teams to date this season, and projected based on the teams games yet to be played on the schedule, and includes a regression to the mean factor.

    The rSOS means remaining strength of schedule, average means what is the most likely final records, POST means percentage chance to make the post season, and so on.

    I've been leaning on this data for years, trust me, it's deadly accurate.
    The Orioles have a 40 percent chance, 40 percent translates into +150 implied odds.
    So, if you can get say +180 or better om the O's making the playoffs, there's your value bet.
    I would need better than +200, but BR's numbers are usually spot on, so I'll pass on fading Baltimore or fading them.



    Current Average
    Tm D rSOS W L W L Post WC Div
    Toronto Blue Jays E 0.3 60 49 88.3 73.7 85.00% 84.90% <0.1%
    Tampa Bay Rays E 0.5 58 50 84.8 77.2 55.50% 55.50% <0.1%
    Baltimore Orioles E 0.3 57 52 83.5 78.5 39.10% 39.10% <0.1%
    Minnesota Twins C 0 57 51 84.5 77.5 55.80% 13.50% 42.30%
    Cleveland Guardians C -0.2 56 52 83.3 78.7 43.00% 11.90% 31.10%
    Chicago White Sox C -0.3 55 53 82.5 79.5 34.90% 8.30% 26.60%
    Seattle Mariners W -0.4 59 52 87.1 74.9 80.50% 80.40% 0.10%
    And the Orioles remaining schedule is not as soft as you think it is.
    They are better than Detroit and Boston right now, but the Tigers aren't that much of a pushover.
    Nine games here are 'gimmes'
    Gm# Date Tm Opp
    110 Tuesday, Aug 9 preview BAL TOR
    111 Wednesday, Aug 10 preview BAL TOR
    112 Thursday, Aug 11 preview BAL @ BOS
    113 Friday, Aug 12 preview BAL @ TBR
    114 Saturday, Aug 13 preview BAL @ TBR
    115 Sunday, Aug 14 preview BAL @ TBR
    116 Monday, Aug 15 preview BAL @ TOR
    117 Tuesday, Aug 16 preview BAL @ TOR
    118 Wednesday, Aug 17 preview BAL @ TOR
    119 Thursday, Aug 18 preview BAL CHC
    120 Friday, Aug 19 preview BAL BOS
    121 Saturday, Aug 20 preview BAL BOS
    122 Sunday, Aug 21 preview BAL BOS
    123 Tuesday, Aug 23 preview BAL CHW
    124 Wednesday, Aug 24 preview BAL CHW
    125 Thursday, Aug 25 preview BAL CHW
    126 Friday, Aug 26 preview BAL @ HOU
    127 Saturday, Aug 27 preview BAL @ HOU
    128 Sunday, Aug 28 preview BAL @ HOU
    129 Tuesday, Aug 30 preview BAL @ CLE
    130 Wednesday, Aug 31 preview BAL @ CLE
    131 Thursday, Sep 1 preview BAL @ CLE
    132 Friday, Sep 2 preview BAL OAK
    133 Saturday, Sep 3 preview BAL OAK
    134 Sunday, Sep 4 preview BAL OAK
    135 Monday, Sep 5 preview BAL TOR
    136 Tuesday, Sep 6 preview BAL TOR
    137 Wednesday, Sep 7 preview BAL TOR
    138 Friday, Sep 9 preview BAL BOS
    139 Saturday, Sep 10 preview BAL BOS
    140 Sunday, Sep 11 preview BAL BOS
    141 Tuesday, Sep 13 preview BAL @ WSN
    142 Wednesday, Sep 14 preview BAL @ WSN
    143 Friday, Sep 16 preview BAL @ TOR
    144 Saturday, Sep 17 preview BAL @ TOR
    145 Sunday, Sep 18 preview BAL @ TOR
    146 Monday, Sep 19 preview BAL DET
    147 Tuesday, Sep 20 preview BAL DET
    148 Wednesday, Sep 21 preview BAL DET
    149 Thursday, Sep 22 preview BAL HOU
    150 Friday, Sep 23 preview BAL HOU
    151 Saturday, Sep 24 preview BAL HOU
    152 Sunday, Sep 25 preview BAL HOU
    153 Monday, Sep 26 preview BAL @ BOS
    154 Tuesday, Sep 27 preview BAL @ BOS
    155 Wednesday, Sep 28 preview BAL @ BOS
    156 Thursday, Sep 29 preview BAL @ BOS
    157 Friday, Sep 30 preview BAL @ NYY
    158 Saturday, Oct 1 preview BAL @ NYY
    159 Sunday, Oct 2 preview BAL @ NYY
    160 Monday, Oct 3 preview BAL TOR
    161 Tuesday, Oct 4 preview BAL TOR
    162 Wednesday, Oct 5 preview BAL TOR
    40%

    lolololol

    Cmon guy, that's not remotely accurate
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  17. #17
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    40%

    lolololol

    Cmon guy, that's not remotely accurate
    I think that's high as well, and I'm already on record as saying so.
    But, I can't argue with BR's past results on accuracy, I don't always agree with them, a lot of times in the past I've scratched my head over some of the numbers they've posted in the past and said to myself "What am I missing here, that number seems to be way off" only a month later to see they were right.

    They aren't 100 percent, but they have a proven track record of accuracy.
    I am not advocated tail or fade, but I wouldn't turn you guys onto a bullshit site either,
    I'm just putting it out there.

    I personally wouldn't touch Baltimore anything under +250 myself, no less +150

  18. #18
    stake1
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    Sawx have a better shot at the last wild-card than Earl’s boys. next year? lookout though for the Weaver crew
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  19. #19
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I think that's high as well, and I'm already on record as saying so.
    But, I can't argue with BR's past results on accuracy, I don't always agree with them, a lot of times in the past I've scratched my head over some of the numbers they've posted in the past and said to myself "What am I missing here, that number seems to be way off" only a month later to see they were right.

    They aren't 100 percent, but they have a proven track record of accuracy.
    I am not advocated tail or fade, but I wouldn't turn you guys onto a bullshit site either,
    I'm just putting it out there.

    I personally wouldn't touch Baltimore anything under +250 myself, no less +150
    Before last nights win, they were -950/+670 to NOT make the playoffs in Vegas
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  20. #20
    hotcross
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I have my own databases, BR.com database is without question the most accurate.
    They give the Orioles a 40 percent chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot.

    The following chart is from BR.com, and updated daily.
    The data is based on 1000 simulated computer games based on the performances of all teams to date this season, and projected based on the teams games yet to be played on the schedule, and includes a regression to the mean factor.

    BR.com ???
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  21. #21
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by hotcross View Post
    BR.com ???
    Baseball-reference
    You can access their numbers once you're into the site.
    It's not for profit information, no pay involved.
    I've been going there for years, they're good, very good.

  22. #22
    hotcross
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    ok thanks. Was thinking Bleacher Report? was drawing a blank there
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  23. #23
    Mike Huntertz
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    It would be nice to see them make it.....they don't know they're not suppose to get there.

  24. #24
    Fishhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    It would be nice to see them make it.....they don't know they're not suppose to get there.
    Will pop a woody if they do.........
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  25. #25
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    Will pop a woody if they do.........
    They gave up on Mancini way too early.

    Watch the O's back door the last WC spot, beat the Twins or White Sox in the WC round, face Houston in the ALDS, and Mancini comes back to bite his old team in the ass.

    Mancini was pretty much the new face of the 2020's O's
    That deal pissed off a lot of people.

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