1. #1
    veriableodds
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    Anyone wager these inherent type senario's???

    Without talking specifics of or about models, bankroll management, ect ect
    This is a simple basic form of +ev? Or is it not?
    1. Games that are typically wagerd on with no spreads like mlb, hockey, soccer ect. Only taking teams with a minimum 40% chance of winning.
    Team-A model says team-A has a 47.2% chance of winning with odds of +129. That would mean your expected value would be 8%, even though your break even is achieved at .94?? conclusion being if I bet this same scenario risking .47 each time over 100 wagers risking 47 total my ev would be 8% of 47= 3.76 ev profit???

    2. Same model chance as above for winning but the line is +105 which doesn't come close to beak even so therefore it's a no bet?? conclusion wagers appear to only have value based off the payout the line is offering??

    3. Spread games like NBA, NCAAF, NFL, ect ect
    Using the typical 91% (.91) payout . Team whatever, whoever has a 46% chance of winning model says they should loose by 2, but they are getting +6 from the books giving a value of 4 points. If the total -over/under- of a game is say 200 , would that now be a 54% chance of winning for team-a 46+ the % of perceived points in game?? 54% + .91 payout giving a +ev of 3.14%????

    4. Totals,. Models suggest score of 8.75 while the line is 10 so would that not then be 62.5% for game to go under given the 1.25 discrepancy?? So that would +ev of 19.3% (62.5 +.91%) payout????

    Any thoughts on these, does anybody wager like this??

  2. #2
    pologq
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    do you strictly bet based on formula? just asking

  3. #3
    Roscoe_Word
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    I'd say if your model calculates the probable winning % accurately, then your +EV perspective (what I'd call an overlay) would grind away a profit.

    I guess the key word is "IF".

    If that's the case, you might have found the Holy Grail. (Don't know if Monty Python's boys were successful.)

    I tried the (+EV) or (OVERLAY) method which, needless to say, got croaked.

    My rudimentary programming skills were no match for the books.

    My humble opinion: This "thing of ours" is 60% art and 40% science.
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  4. #4
    veriableodds
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    Sorry guys I absolutely just have no extra time these days.
    Really just using theory, mixed with league trends . If I just took the 50ish 60% ish wagers that not only wouldn't be worth the time or money, as there would be hardly any wagers. No I don't just wager on the formula, I data crunch looking for discrepancy been doing it for years. Hardly been doing anything wagering last 3 years. Got alot of these ideas from the oddjam YouTube videos where they beat the pinnacle on the lines

  5. #5
    pologq
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    it is interesting what you posted. makes me think.

  6. #6
    Nate rasta
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    I always feel like I have a better angle on my local teams. Local radio local sports news ect.

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    killer sports you can make your own trend models if you learn sdql formulas and actually not that hard

  8. #8
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    I always feel like I have a better angle on my local teams. Local radio local sports news ect.
    same. good point too.

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