Originally Posted by
stevenash
You'll never get -140 run line on a -340 money line baseball favorite.
More like -190
Never. As in ever.
I've been doing baseball forever, it's my passion.
When you see a -340 in MLB it's rare.
-340 is Pedro at home in his prime vs. Baltimore.
-340 is Greg Maddux at home in his prime vs, expansion Miami
You only get -340 when a generation's elite pitcher goes against a shit poor team, or a generation's elite ball club vs. an expansion type club.
You'll be hard pressed to find two money line games over 3:1 odds a MLB season out of 2340 regular season games.
And if you do find a -340 game, the run line is usually -190 (give or take)
Going back to my Pedro in his prime vs. Baltimore example.
I remember clearly such a Red Sox game, it was Martinez vs. floundering Orioles.
The betting line was, and I remember clearly, Red Sox -350, -1.5 runs -210, -2.5 runs -110
Reason why I remember it clearly is because I said to my Red Sox girl friend at the time, now my wife, "this is insane, the Sox have to win by three or more runs just to break barely even.
(before you ask, Sox won 6-1)
Now I don't dismiss laying -190, but only these two conditions.
I'll bet -190 on the run line and move it to say -110 if my starter is an ace against a mediocre team ONLY on the road.
Why the road?
Because the road team is ALWAYS guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.
The home team is not always guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.
Example:
If you bet the run line on a home team, and the score is 4-3 in favor of the aforementioned home team at the end of the top of the ninth.
Game over, your team wins, your run line loses, you don't get your ninth inning at bat, your team doesn't need it, and it sucks to be you.
Same scenario, 4-3 you have the run line, difference is you're team is the road team.
4-3, end of eight innings, you're team is winning.
This time you are guaranteed the ninth inning at bat, and in the top of the ninth, you get two runs on a two run tater, your closer saves the bottom of the ninth, your team wins, you cover the run line 6-3, and it doesn't suck to be you.
The other condition I would consider betting a -190 favorite is with another similar chalk favorite on a two team money line parlay.
(money line, not run line)
Reason being, even though you need both teams to win your parlay bet, betting them on the parlay actually digs into the book vig if you bet the two chalks as stand alone individual wagers.
Please don't ask me to prove out the math, as it's time consuming, and I have proven out the math several times here already.