Originally Posted by
Pareto
I already knew that when I made the post.
Odds still indicate that he is more likely to start than to sit. Odds would be lower on his competitors if there were 60-70% chance that he sits.
Imagine you have a 3-person race where:
- Person 1 has 50% chance to win,
- Person 2 has 25% chance to win
- Person 3 has 25% chance to win
In a perfect market the odds would be
Person 1: 2,0 (+100)
Person 2: 4,0 (+300)
Person 3: 4,0 (+300)
Now lets assume there is a 60 percent chance person 1 will miss the tournament. What should the odds be now (if we assume he is replaced with no one or someone with 0% chance to win)?
Person 1: Same odds. If he plays he has 50% chance to win. If he doesnt play bets are returned.
Person 2: He now has 25% chance to win tournament if player 1 plays ( 0,4*4) + 50% chance to win if he sits ( 0,6*2). (0,4*4+0,6*2)
= 2,8
Person 3: Same as person 2
So the market goes from 100% to approx. 121%.
Right now the market for Mens australian winner is 112,7%
Thats lower than the market for womens winner which is 118,6%
And remember in that market you have about 70-80 players included that have zero chance of winning but they are still listed at +100000 odds because thats the highest you can get at Betfair.
So by looking at the market you wouldnt expect the big favourite among the men to miss out. The market does assume there is some chance that Djokovic doesnt play because the market for lay is 101,9%. Meaning if you sold all the players you would earn a guaranteed profit of a few percent if djokovic plays. On the womens market it is only 98,2%.