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That Ga Tech vs Virginia gm
So Ga Tech gets back to back onsides kicks which I have never seen in my life from pony league to NFL. But that's not even close to the strangest part.
I was following the gm online so correct me if I'm wrong but Ga Tech gets the onside, immediately scores making it 48-40 with :27 left. THEY GO FOR TWO with the line painted -6.5???? Like WHAT in the FVVK???
They didn't get the two then they get another onside kick and almost score a TD.
Not strange at all
Going for 2 mathematically is the right call
I personally don't care either way
The issue is more that all teams don't do that
And that means when it happens to you and you lose it feels like you got screwed
Hmmm....Originally Posted by Shutup
You are down 14 and you score a TD with :27 left, 6 points, and now you are down 8.
Do you
A) kick the extra point so that you are down 7
or
B) Go for two so you are down 6?
Ga Tech went for 2 because the spread was +6.5. There is no other reason.
If you score and get the 2 you are down 6 meaning a TD wins
If you miss you are down 8 and you go for two again
Mathematically the 2 pt conversion rate is a bit over 50%
That means it is more likely than not on your first attempt you make it
Also more likely you do not miss two if you miss the first
Meaning worst case scenario statistically is you are tied
It is like BJ
If you can actually count cards it doesn't guarantee you win a hand but overall gives an edge
Roy it’s all about analytics now just like SBR
Roy if the analytics say cut my grass every nine days that’s what you do
If the analytics say forceout offshore guys that’s what we do
I basically run my life by analytics with an app it tells me what to do every day
You don’t have to think anymore and math and science backs it up
Roy... jj is being truthful here he suffers from IBS and his analytics app tells him to hit the local YMCA every other Friday so the basketball rec guys can "clean him out" and make his pooper run more smoothly... it really is about science the YMCA guys even call him "Dr. Strangelove".
Roy flip on a football game the last 5 years. This isnt the first time a team did that.
Yeah the last couple years this is becoming normal. I hate it personally and good winning teams who are confident in their ability to win never do this. But loser ass bullshit teams like GA Tech find value in it. Which is funny because I’ve never heard of a game where a team was down 14 late and this go for two thing ever really worked out. I’ve been fukked over by it on the spread but I’ve never actually seen a team utilize this “cut it to six and now a touchdown wins” to get a win. And do you know why? Only loser ass teams who know they have no shot do this.
Analytics will always favor an option that results in more points. Go for two, shoot threes, etc. Going for it on many a fourth down is loosely related to this as well. These things are becoming more and more common and these “50/50 propositions” are probably costing teams wins more often than anything. How many fourth and 1s have you seen teams not get the last couple of years? I’d venture to say 5 million. Just because it’s on a chart doesn’t make it a good idea
we just had this discussion a few days ago. think of it as getting two chances to make a 2 point conversion where u need to make the last one to go to OT if u dont make the first one, but if u make the 2 pt converstion the first time then u can win the game on the next td and extra pt make
ahh I see that shut up explained it also
Not true.
The worse case scenario is both two pointers fail and you lose when all you had to do is kick two extra points.
Ga T scored a TD with :27 left down 14. Going for 2 in that spot was just dumb.
StatisticallyNot true.
The worse case scenario is both two pointers fail and you lose when all you had to do is kick two extra points.
Ga T scored a TD with :27 left down 14. Going for 2 in that spot was just dumb.
Of course you could miss both
But basrd on the averages
As I said you can count cards right and not win a hand but the odds are still likely you will
That is all it is
Not a guarantee but an advantage
The funny thing is you never see coaches who have won numerous championships do this! Belichick, Saban, Sweeney etc come to mind. Analytics is over rated. Gut feeling and knowing your team and the feel of the game is WAY more important in my opinion. IE going for it on 4th and 1 with Taylor Heinecke and the wash redskins vs GB is NOT the same as going for it on 4th and 1 with Derek Henry and tenn vs JAX. Thats the problem with analytics….it doesnt take into acct the numerous other factors besides just “statistical probabilities”
Roy seems like a big player
Who is this guy?
Exhibit A was Detroit yest. 3rd and 1 at the 20. They run an awful play right at Aaron Donald. They get stuffed. They go hurry up. Run the same exact play!!! At Donald again and get stuffed AGAIN! Awesome. The analytics say go for it. Meanwhile, you have a terrible team with a bad O line going against a stout D line and the best def lineman in the game. Congrats! You went for it and you got stuffed. Take the 3. Your team sucks and you are not going to block Donald. End of story
Had they taken that three, they still have the ball at the end with a chance. Instead they got it back down 9 and no real hope
Exactly. You have to know your tm and your opponent. Take the 3 and keep momentum. I think you grab pts when you can. Anyways, just my 2 cents
Correct. Roy is clueless
GT can do a lot better than that scrub OC/DC and Collins from freaking Temple. Great recruiter, but basically a used car salesman as a coach. It's painful to watch, considering how GT was playing when I went there. Basketball team is on the way up though.
Last edited by JacketFan81; 10-25-21 at 05:41 PM. Reason: grammar
The correct answer is B if your chance of making a two-point conversion is 35% or more.Hmmm....
You are down 14 and you score a TD with :27 left, 6 points, and now you are down 8.
Do you
A) kick the extra point so that you are down 7
or
B) Go for two so you are down 6?
Ga Tech went for 2 because the spread was +6.5. There is no other reason.
Exactly. I figured it out when I was about nine years old.
This... There's much more to go into analytics than just using the numbers. What is the current situation? Are both teams scoring at will, the defenses are both worn out. Is it a grind it out, you can barely get a yard defensive slobberknocker. Is your kicker sucking monkey balls, missing XPs?
I've seen this choice at least 3 or 4 times in the last year. Why go for 2 on the first TD? I would go for 2 and the win on the 2nd TD but in all cases I've seen, the team never got the chance for the 2nd TD anyway.
Analytics is great but it's not going to do much for a team that sucks. I'm sure Vandy has some of the brightest kids in their engineering team breaking down the numbers. Good luck with that.
It's really killing basketball. Kids jacking up 3s from the damn logo thinking they're the next Curry.
I'm fine with analytics if every coach would adhere to it. But you can't preach analytics if they are not consistent. It's like people hitting or staying on 16 in blackjack against a made hand. You shouldn't bounce back and forth with your decisions.
Every coach has that "go for 2" chart and it just seems odd at times when they choose to follow it or ignore it!
I play blackjack very unorthodox. I do not play by the rules because I can count cards. I've done very well through the years. When I'm just playing for fun, I won't bounce back and forth but when I'm playing for cash, I am going to do my thing. I let the table know ahead of time, so don't be surprise when I split tens, 6s, double down on 8, etc.
Statistically, it is better to stay on 16 versus Ace and 10. You should hit on 7, 8, and 9. No book will tell you that but I've done the math.
I think if you do the same thing you then become predictable, which I don't think is good in most sports.
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