1. #36
    mem5757
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    Why let a coin flip potentially determine your fate though? There's a chance Allen doesn't even see the field in overtime.

    Just pick up 1/2 a yard and you're in the driver's seat to end it.
    exactly, the titans scored on their last 6 drives, whichever team won the coin toss was winning the game if it went to OT.

  2. #37
    MinnesotaFats
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    You kick the fg. Home field advantage for the entire playoffs is huge especially in buffalo in late January. I know you hate kickers though.
    You don't get HF unless you win games

    They played to win

    Playing for the tie doesn't get you home field...it gets you overtime. In overtime you could very well be in the same position or worse, lose the game to begin with.

  3. #38
    jtoler
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    there’s also a chance they get the first down and still don’t score a td. at that point many would prob change their mind. good discussion I’d love to see the analytics if there are any for this exact situation

  4. #39
    Eddy Munny
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    Anyone who watched the Chargers/Browns game two weeks ago saw some insanely aggressive 4th down calls by Coach Staley that defy even modern analytics. If you guys think tonight's call was bad, you should be calling for Staley's head even knowing they won that game.

  5. #40
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    but it f u don’t get it u have zero chance to win. I never think qb sneaks are automatic especially when everyone is expecting it
    That play, with that qb will work 98 out of 100. You gotta take those percentages there. I don’t think a single coach kicks fg there.

  6. #41
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    Anyone who watched the Chargers/Browns game two weeks ago saw some insanely aggressive 4th down calls by Coach Staley that defy even modern analytics. If you guys think tonight's call was bad, you should be calling for Staley's head even knowing they won that game.
    I saw that game. He made a big call on 4th down vs kc as well the previous week that worked. I'm not sure this particular play tonight is comparable. The Chargers had a dunce head coach that didn't risk anything for the past few years. Staley was clearly not going to keep that same approach going forward. Lynn's decisions or lack thereof sapped morale. Staley making those gambles helped bring morale back up.

    McDermott going for it was not surprising because that's the "in " thing to do nowadays. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The fg while not 100% was pretty close to that. Then you take your chances in ot. I guess I'm too stubborn to like this current generation analytics.

  7. #42
    jtoler
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    it’s just the way I’m wired I guess I’m traditionally conservative when it comes to OT and going for it at the end of games. if I was a coach my fan base would prob boo me u guys are prob correct 100% with going for it

  8. #43
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    That play, with that qb will work 98 out of 100. You gotta take those percentages there. I don’t think a single coach kicks fg there.
    Its actually 84% . The math was on there side. The result wasn't.

  9. #44
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    That play, with that qb will work 98 out of 100. You gotta take those percentages there. I don’t think a single coach kicks fg there.
    I’m not sure the qb matters as much as getting a good push, he chose the side where titan defender got a good jump

  10. #45
    Brock Landers
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    Run the same play as on the 2 point conversion.

    Unstoppable

  11. #46
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I saw that game. He made a big call on 4th down vs kc as well the previous week that worked. I'm not sure this particular play tonight is comparable. The Chargers had a dunce head coach that didn't risk anything for the past few years. Staley was clearly not going to keep that same approach going forward. Lynn's decisions or lack thereof sapped morale. Staley making those gambles helped bring morale back up.

    McDermott going for it was not surprising because that's the "in " thing to do nowadays. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The fg while not 100% was pretty close to that. Then you take your chances in ot. I guess I'm too stubborn to like this current generation analytics.
    Staley's calls were outright insanity. It was like a kid playing Madden. He went for it on 4th and 2 from about their own 30 yard line less than five minutes into the 2nd half. No coach does that. If they fail there, they're basically conceding the game early in the 3rd quarter. There were a couple others later on.

    My point is McDermott's call wasn't even close to "bad." It didn't work out, but that's like saying throwing to a wide open receiver in the end zone who drops the pass was a bad decision by the quarterback because he could've checked it down to the RB in the flat who was equally wide open, but had a higher percentage catch available.

    If you had Josh Allen (who's built like an oak tree) only needing half a yard, how many times out of 100 do you think he picks it up? I'd say 80 is a conservative estimate.

  12. #47
    GunShard
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    I did research on the math. If going to overtime gives you a 50% chance of getting the ball. From what I read, a QB sneak gives you a 88% chance of getting a 1st down. So it was the right play to choose 88% chance over 50% chance.

  13. #48
    ThaTopMoron
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    nobody here sees WHAT THE REAL PROBLEM WAS

    if you are going to go QB sneak

    you do not... try to get CUTE and have your QB milling around like they are going to run some sort of Shotgun play... the use of deception or trickery is useless here. you need 1/2 yard and you will qb sneak your way to a first no matter what

    then have to quickly try to run down under center and quickly take the snap

    1. you are increasing odds of a bad snap

    2. you are letting the titans know that the snap is coming quickly

    3. that hurry up under center lead to Allen and his inability to drive with his legs anywhere or have a 2nd push... lost his traction trying to do all that movement too quick

    4. STUPID execution ... run a proper QB sneak under center from the start and let Allen and his line find the best looking opening or just take Allen and go behind the best line combo whether that's your LG+C or C+RG

    5. Bills deserve to lose with the red zone stalls anyways.. f em!

  14. #49
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
    I did research on the math. If going to overtime gives you a 50% chance of getting the ball. From what I read, a QB sneak gives you a 88% chance of getting a 1st down. So it was the right play to choose 88% chance over 50% chance.
    I get all that.

    What are the% of FGs from 20 yards out ?

  15. #50
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
    I did research on the math. If going to overtime gives you a 50% chance of getting the ball. From what I read, a QB sneak gives you a 88% chance of getting a 1st down. So it was the right play to choose 88% chance over 50% chance.
    Not sure wut that chart is saying. doesn’t seem to be exclusive about 4th and 1. I just saw a 2019 article about Brady’s qb sneak conversion rate. he’s the master. in 157 attempts he converted 82% of those. they were prob top 5 offensive line each year in all that time

  16. #51
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    It was the correct call and if Allen hadn't slipped, it probably would've worked.

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