Originally Posted by
semibluff
The Eagles were correct to go for 2 on their last TD. The math on the 2 point conversion goes something like this - You're down 14 points with not long left in the 4th quarter. You need to score 2 TDs and have the other team not score. If that doesn't happen it doesn't matter what you do. If it does happen it comes down to math & game theory.
Q) If the average chance of kicking the XP is 100% and the average change of converting the 2 point conversion is 38.2% which action gives you the best chance of winning?
Kicking XPs will give you a 0% chance of winning in regulation, a 0% chance of losing in regulation and a 100% chance of going to OT.
The alternative strategy is to go for 2 points on the 1st attempt and if you make it kick the 2nd XP. If you fail the 1st attempt you attempt it again on the 2nd TD. This strategy will result in you winning by 1 point in regulation 38.2% of the time, you will lose by 2 points in regulation 38.2% of the time, and you will got to OT 23.6% of the time.
Teams are less than 100% on XPs and they are generally better than 38.2% on 2 point conversions. Thus they are better off going for 2 points in this specific situation. Essentially they are gambling away the chance to lose by 1 point for extra for additional chances to win. Over the long run the team would score fewer total points by going for 2 if they have a conversionm rate of between 38.2% and 50% but they would have a higher winning %.