1. 10-09-21 09:47 AM #36
    usma1992
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    Yeah O threshold is 13 pts I think...

    I've tried to lower it but it doesn't work on my previous sample size. I wish I had more overs. Right now... it's working so I don't want to tweak too much.

    Certain zscore combinations... get thrown out based on historical data. For instance, if a team's Def is great against the run... z score -1.5 or worse... than it may toss the game regardless of projections.

    Dave
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  2. 10-09-21 09:49 AM #37
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    6-1 going into weekend.

    Dave
    Stick with it here all season. Let's see 500 plays.

    I'm more impressed by 280-220 than 10-0.
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  3. 10-09-21 09:54 AM #38
    Headsterx
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    H.A.L: Hello, Dave
    😂😂😂
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  4. 10-09-21 10:10 AM #39
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Yeah O threshold is 13 pts I think...

    I've tried to lower it but it doesn't work on my previous sample size. I wish I had more overs. Right now... it's working so I don't want to tweak too much.

    Certain zscore combinations... get thrown out based on historical data. For instance, if a team's Def is great against the run... z score -1.5 or worse... than it may toss the game regardless of projections.

    Dave
    OK, I think this is a little cockamamie but I give you an A for effort. Keep up the good work.
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  5. 10-09-21 10:11 AM #40
    Lineman
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    I was just going to question the Michigan Rutgers game, shouldn't be too close to call???
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  6. 10-09-21 10:12 AM #41
    Bostongambler
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    The answer is 12. Thanks
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  7. 10-10-21 08:37 AM #42
    vivablu
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    Its mostly picking favorites?
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  8. 10-10-21 11:02 AM #43
    usma1992
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    Only ended up at 54% plus 3 out of 4 ML. Not great especially the way it started out. I'll look to eliminate losers,but they have to be back tested.
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  9. 10-11-21 07:16 PM #44
    usma1992
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    Made minor tweaks to NFL...minor. System projected Buffalo game perfectly score wise. 38-20. Spent some time looking at Over/Unders. Ready for next week. I plan to do deep dive into college. It won for 2nd week in a row so...I plan to just tweak.

    Dave

    P.S. If you want a penny stock flyer... I was a broker at Morgan Stanley previous life... worth a small investment. FUEL positive NHHHF... Enjoy.
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  10. 10-11-21 07:31 PM #45
    SamsNCharge99
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  11. 10-12-21 01:24 PM #46
    mama whoiscrying
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  12. 10-12-21 04:18 PM #47
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Made minor tweaks to NFL...minor. System projected Buffalo game perfectly score wise. 38-20. Spent some time looking at Over/Unders. Ready for next week. I plan to do deep dive into college. It won for 2nd week in a row so...I plan to just tweak.

    Dave

    P.S. If you want a penny stock flyer... I was a broker at Morgan Stanley previous life... worth a small investment. FUEL positive NHHHF... Enjoy.
    lol if your system projected Buffalo 38-20 then it's a bad system.

    It's not about projecting the exact score, it's about finding value. There's no way that the line in that game should have been Buffalo -18. Don't project actual scores -- project what the 50/50 correct pointspread should be. And if your pointspread is different by 21 points, then your model is bad. No NFL line is ever off by that much.
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  13. 10-12-21 05:02 PM #48
    Slurry Pumper
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    Its OK to pick scores if it is accurate enough, how else are you going to pick a line number? Anyways, either way it don't matter. Have you or are you going to back test the program against previous games? There is only like 1000's to choose from, but if you do, from the Pros side, I would only go back as far as about 5 years. Any further and the relentless migration of the rules will start to throw a curve ball into the program.
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  14. 10-15-21 11:29 PM #49
    usma1992
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    d2bets...

    I appreciate the feedback. Truly I do. I am not a novice to this endeavor am I am trying to find a unique approach. I am trying to predict the final score... Vegas isn't.

    Vegas has a much different job than I do. They have to adhere to the masses ... I do not.

    I am trying to predict how the game materializes. Does a fast scoring offense suddenly come to a halt in certain scenarios?

    If I can get close to predicting the score... than I can bet anyway I want against Vegas.

    And no they would never have Buffalo -18... but isn't that the point. I have had several friends do reverse parlays because my numbers are so good they win big

    Now they picked reasonable games... but I feel like Brad Pitt in MoneyBall...

    Adapt or die.

    Hey I post every pick and projected score. I'm not hiding anything.

    Last Thursday night in college football and NFL I predicted 3 games within 6 pts.

    I am not talking 6pts per game. Or per team.
    I am talking 40- 20 ... I said 41-20... 1 pt.

    Dave

    PS I am having fun watching it materialize and yes I've been on your side of the fence.
    Last edited by usma1992; 10-15-21 at 11:32 PM.
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  15. 10-16-21 08:31 AM #50
    SamsNCharge99
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    any plays for todaY?
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  16. 10-16-21 09:52 AM #51
    usma1992
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    Tons...already posted ... check my previous post.

    5-2 to start this weekend.

    Dave
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  17. 10-16-21 09:55 AM #52
    SamsNCharge99
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    i don't see any plays posted since last week when you started this thread
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  18. 10-16-21 09:56 AM #53
    SamsNCharge99
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    unless you posted in another thread not in players talk
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