[johnnyvegas13]

But you would be fukkked if the Pack led wire to wire. Best bet is to hedge the hell out of the bet before the game starts. Catch a flight to Vegas, pay a friend to be a window runner, hedge and not worry about the game.


About 10 years ago I had a futures bet that needed 1 win for about a $6k payout. I flew down to Vegas and bet the other way to ensure I won at least half. I can't even tell you who won the game because I was sipping on Pina Colada's by the beach at Mandalay Bay.

But at -650 u have to hedge sooo much to profit

and what if lions actually win

[dante1]

MGM could reduce their exposure and buy a lot of publicity by offering this guy a fair buyout. They probably won't and will let it ride but you never know.

yeah, for sure.

but the reducing exposure. I doubt if he will win even half of those plays. not because they are not great or good or even acceptable only because of one word, math.

kids that come along and think geez this is easy. yeah, I thought that too once when I was an unseasoned gambling idiot.

wagering on games is fun a bunch of fun and if you first can realize you will lose in the long run and then set some ground rules that you never or seldom break you can enjoy yourself without thinking about killing yourself. I made bigger wages when I was young, stupid and had no money than I do today. It was always Tuesday morning attempting to bail myself out. I discovered you can have just as much fun playing 25 or 50 vs 200 or 300. at least half the fun is knowing you beat the book. money is simply ammo.

[johnnyvegas13]

Lions prob lose this gm in typical lions fashion

[dante1]

Lions prob lose this gm in typical lions fashion

hearing/reading a ton of comments like this one. and GB lost first so all points to the favorite so you are probably correct, however when I read these comments it forces me to bet small on the favorite or maybe take a small bite on the dog. granted Detroit has been a bad team but some changes have been made. I am in no way touting the Lions but would I be surprised if they cover. nope!

when I booked the players visited our establishment and put their money up. great reasons for that, first and foremost you can't get stuck, 2nd it allows gamblers to congregate in a gambling establishment where they can play cards, bet horses and play the video machines. what I found most interesting was the chatter before the games. I believe a majority of players are favorite/over players. and when the chatter is mostly on one team (usually a favorite) I would guess that team lost way more often than won.

just some observations I have made in over 20 years by mostly listening.

[johnnyvegas13]

hearing/reading a ton of comments like this one. and GB lost first so all points to the favorite so you are probably correct, however when I read these comments it forces me to bet small on the favorite or maybe take a small bite on the dog. granted Detroit has been a bad team but some changes have been made. I am in no way touting the Lions but would I be surprised if they cover. nope!

when I booked the players visited our establishment and put their money up. great reasons for that, first and foremost you can't get stuck, 2nd it allows gamblers to congregate in a gambling establishment where they can play cards, bet horses and play the video machines. what I found most interesting was the chatter before the games. I believe a majority of players are favorite/over players. and when the chatter is mostly on one team (usually a favorite) I would guess that team lost way more often than won.

just some observations I have made in over 20 years by mostly listening.

Agree

lt of the chatter u actually hear in casinos is pretty dumb

[dante1]

Agree

lt of the chatter u actually hear in casinos is pretty dumb

tell you a true story and I believe I wrote about this before.

my partner and I had a small book. I don't think even during football we ever had more than a few dozen players. still a ton of money was to be made. but that is neither here nor there.

two other guys had the largest book in town. they took real action, big time bets from professionals (doctors, lawyers, etc) and degenerates. a buddy of mine worked for them and told me this story. when they were heavy on one team once in a while instead of laying off half the acton the boys would bet the other side. he swears by everything that is holy they won those plays higher than 50%. lol

If I had anywhere near 2,000 on one game I couldn't wait to lay some of it off and I swear to you I paid my layoff man much more often than he paid me.

[biggie12]

If cash out was a option at the book how much would they offer

with lions at +400 cashout would be around $145k

[KVB]

...what I found most interesting was the chatter before the games. I believe a majority of players are favorite/over players. and when the chatter is mostly on one team (usually a favorite) I would guess that team lost way more often than won.

just some observations I have made in over 20 years by mostly listening.

It has not changed. The public will always have a thirst for the Favorite and OVER.

That's the grease that makes the whole thing work, it opens things up for exploitation.

[johnnyvegas13]

with lions at +400 cashout would be around $145k

Right on the math

but books don’t give ay fair deal on cashout

[ThaTopMoron]

i mean, if i'm going to put in 16 games i would make the last one the most reasonable play so you're not praying for a miracle

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Transaction Number: 19492432
Transaction Date: 21 September 2021, 8:32:20 AM
Status: Accepted
Sport: Mixed
Multibet: G2 Kansas City Royals vs G2 Cleveland Indians / Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays / Line/Total Double
G2 Kansas City Royals / Toronto Blue Jays / Green Bay Packers -11.5 / Under 48.5
Stake: $2000.00
Dividend: TBD
Balance Effect: $-2000.00

13-1 lesgogoo

[Rich Boy]

Lions may win this, Im rooting for this guy!!!

[Itsamazing777]

It was a free bet. No early cash out was available

[slayer14]

dont books have a certain amount that you can win off free bets

[goduke]

146k if he hadnt included detroit

[slayer14]

lions up 13-7 against a very capable packers defense

[TheMetsSuck]

This guy is going to jump off a bridge after this rooster tease start when the pack kick a fg at the buzzer to win

[rm18]

he got a horrible price too on last leg if he would of bet Lions in cash after winning 15 teamer would make an extra 80k or so

[Rich Boy]

Lions have a chance here, Packers are soft

[TheMetsSuck]

I had a 10$ to win 100k 15 team baseball parlay on 5dimes 10 or so years ago. It came down to the final leg on Sunday night baseball white Sox at the rangers. I had the white Sox. They were down 7 before the 3rd inning and lost by 10+. Id rather lose my last leg like that over a heartbreaking loss in a close finish. Put me out of my misery early

[ridgeway]

I'm pulling for the guy.

[Rich Boy]

Entire forum will be crushed if he wins, fkkk the haters in this pathetic website

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'm pulling for the guy.

What is this guy's heart-rate gonna be in 20 minutes?

[ThanosPttPls]

This will be so fun in 4Q

[carolinakid]

i hope he hedge the hell out of tonite game, he is in a win...win thing tonite

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Entire forum will be crushed if he wins, fkkk the haters in this pathetic website

I'll be rooting for him. If for no other reason than to get an invite to his party next weekend.

[BT RayRay]

Too bad he can’t take a cash out

[ThanosPttPls]

good jobb for him

[firedawg]

hope this guy wins

[TheMetsSuck]

Kinda impossible to hedge on one days notice when the final leg is a double digit under dog for 99% of ppl. Would need to get 300k to put on pack ml to win 70k. Getting that much cash to put down and finishing a book to take that kinda action on 24 hrs notice is almost impossible. Unless a whale reached out to help him there’s little chance

[firedawg]

Kinda impossible to hedge on one days notice when the final leg is a double digit under dog for 99% of ppl. Would need to get 300k to put on pack ml to win 70k. Getting that much cash to put down and finishing a book to take that kinda action on 24 hrs notice is almost impossible. Unless a whale reached out to help him there’s little chance

exactly

[rm18]

Kinda impossible to hedge on one days notice when the final leg is a double digit under dog for 99% of ppl. Would need to get 300k to put on pack ml to win 70k. Getting that much cash to put down and finishing a book to take that kinda action on 24 hrs notice is almost impossible. Unless a whale reached out to help him there’s little chance

You have to bet like 600k to make in neutral but still getting down like 50k would make a big difference to a lot of people.

[pablo222]

You are a jagoff if you aren't rooting for the clown

[Igor_1965]

Yeah dude, you know he feels like a fukking idiot now.

I’d love to know how much he’d have won if he just left Lions off the damn thing. Probably still would be more than any bet he’s ever won in his life

easy to calculate

150k or so

[ThaTopMoron]

guy is going to try again every week thinking he can pull it off