[daneblazer]

Can anyone post these after week 1?

[daneblazer]

Will pay 100 points

[RonT73]

Overall SP+ Rankings

TEAM	RATING	OFFENSE	DEFENSE	SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Alabama (1-0)	32.9	45.2 (2)	12.3 (3)	0.0 (77)
2. Georgia (1-0)	24.8	36.6 (15)	11.8 (2)	0.0 (99)
3. Ohio St. (1-0)	24.2	45.8 (1)	21.6 (31)	0.0 (63)
4. Oklahoma (1-0)	21.9	43.3 (3)	21.4 (30)	0.0 (46)
5. Penn St. (1-0)	20.9	35.5 (20)	14.6 (4)	0.0 (80)
6. Clemson (0-1)	20.7	36.0 (17)	15.3 (5)	0.0 (84)
7. Michigan (1-0)	20.6	36.7 (14)	16.2 (10)	0.1 (11)
8. Texas A&M (1-0)	19.9	35.6 (19)	15.7 (8)	0.0 (43)
9. USC (1-0)	19.8	39.7 (7)	19.9 (19)	0.0 (68)
10. Cincinnati (1-0)	19.7	35.2 (25)	15.5 (7)	-0.1 (109)
11. Utah (1-0)	19.5	35.5 (22)	15.9 (9)	0.0 (87)
12. Iowa (1-0)	19.3	30.1 (51)	11.0 (1)	0.1 (13)
13. Auburn (1-0)	18.6	35.5 (21)	16.9 (11)	0.0 (34)
14. Florida (1-0)	18.2	39.8 (6)	21.6 (32)	0.0 (81)
15. Ole Miss (1-0)	17.1	41.4 (4)	24.3 (48)	0.0 (82)
16. Texas (1-0)	17.0	38.4 (9)	21.4 (29)	0.0 (37)
17. UCLA (2-0)	16.4	40.6 (5)	24.3 (50)	0.1 (2)
18. Wisconsin (0-1)	14.9	30.3 (50)	15.4 (6)	-0.1 (105)
19. Iowa St. (1-0)	14.7	36.0 (16)	21.3 (27)	0.0 (73)
20. Washington (0-1)	13.7	34.6 (27)	20.9 (23)	-0.1 (119)
21. Arizona St. (1-0)	13.1	33.5 (33)	20.5 (21)	0.0 (33)
22. N. Carolina (0-1)	13.0	39.5 (8)	26.5 (65)	0.0 (62)
23. Oregon (1-0)	13.0	34.7 (26)	21.7 (33)	0.1 (18)
24. Va. Tech (1-0)	12.6	35.4 (23)	22.7 (40)	0.0 (91)
25. Miami (0-1)	12.3	34.1 (30)	21.9 (34)	0.1 (23)
26. Coastal Caro. (1-0)	11.6	37.9 (11)	26.2 (63)	-0.1 (111)
27. Pittsburgh (1-0)	11.2	29.9 (55)	18.8 (15)	0.1 (4)
28. Notre Dame (1-0)	11.0	33.1 (37)	22.2 (36)	0.1 (12)
29. NC St. (1-0)	10.8	31.0 (47)	20.2 (20)	0.1 (27)
30. TCU (1-0)	10.4	29.8 (56)	19.4 (16)	0.0 (101)
31. Minnesota (0-1)	10.2	37.1 (13)	26.9 (72)	0.1 (25)
32. UCF (1-0)	9.6	38.1 (10)	28.5 (79)	0.0 (89)
33. Virginia (1-0)	9.4	33.4 (34)	24.1 (46)	0.0 (57)
34. Michigan St. (1-0)	9.0	27.1 (79)	18.1 (13)	-0.1 (110)
35. Memphis (1-0)	8.8	30.1 (53)	21.2 (26)	0.0 (36)
36. Boston Coll. (1-0)	8.6	37.3 (12)	28.8 (80)	0.0 (30)
37. Maryland (1-0)	8.6	31.3 (43)	22.7 (39)	0.0 (66)
38. Kentucky (1-0)	8.6	29.4 (58)	20.9 (24)	0.0 (35)
39. Liberty (1-0)	8.5	35.3 (24)	26.8 (70)	0.0 (74)
40. Nebraska (1-1)	8.4	31.2 (45)	22.9 (42)	0.1 (24)
41. Oklahoma St. (1-0)	8.4	28.0 (73)	19.6 (17)	0.1 (15)
42. App. St. (1-0)	8.2	30.1 (52)	21.9 (35)	0.0 (45)
43. Tennessee (1-0)	8.0	28.4 (69)	20.5 (22)	0.1 (5)
44. BYU (1-0)	6.9	33.4 (35)	26.6 (67)	0.0 (31)
45. Arkansas (1-0)	6.6	29.2 (61)	22.7 (38)	0.0 (53)
46. Kansas St. (1-0)	6.5	31.9 (42)	25.5 (56)	0.1 (28)
47. Troy (1-0)	6.4	29.3 (60)	22.8 (41)	0.0 (71)
48. UAB (1-0)	6.4	23.9 (95)	17.4 (12)	-0.1 (122)
49. Florida St. (0-1)	6.3	33.8 (32)	27.4 (74)	0.0 (92)
50. LSU (0-1)	6.2	32.7 (40)	26.5 (66)	0.0 (39)
51. Indiana (0-1)	5.9	29.3 (59)	23.4 (44)	0.0 (88)
52. Louisiana (0-1)	5.8	31.3 (44)	25.5 (57)	0.0 (59)
53. Toledo (1-0)	5.7	30.0 (54)	24.4 (51)	0.0 (55)
54. SMU (0-0)	5.4	32.9 (38)	27.5 (75)	0.0 ()
55. Tulane (0-1)	5.3	34.5 (28)	29.1 (83)	-0.1 (112)
56. Purdue (1-0)	5.1	34.2 (29)	29.1 (81)	0.0 (48)
57. Texas Tech (1-0)	4.8	31.2 (46)	26.4 (64)	0.0 (51)
58. Boise St. (0-1)	4.6	30.7 (49)	26.2 (62)	0.1 (22)
59. Missouri (1-0)	3.9	28.6 (66)	24.8 (53)	0.1 (6)
60. Miss. St. (1-0)	3.9	27.2 (78)	23.2 (43)	-0.1 (113)
61. Marshall (1-0)	3.6	24.9 (91)	21.4 (28)	0.0 (47)
62. Fresno St. (1-1)	3.0	32.7 (39)	29.6 (86)	-0.2 (129)
63. Wake Forest (1-0)	2.7	28.6 (65)	25.9 (59)	-0.1 (107)
64. Baylor (1-0)	2.6	22.3 (102)	19.7 (18)	0.0 (67)
65. W. Virginia (0-1)	2.6	26.9 (82)	24.3 (47)	0.0 (102)
66. Wash. St. (0-1)	2.6	35.7 (18)	33.1 (103)	0.0 (70)
67. Nevada (1-0)	2.5	29.1 (62)	26.6 (69)	0.0 (94)
68. Buffalo (1-0)	2.4	28.3 (71)	26.0 (60)	0.1 (14)
69. S. Carolina (1-0)	2.2	27.9 (75)	25.7 (58)	0.0 (58)
70. Rutgers (1-0)	1.2	25.8 (86)	24.6 (52)	0.0 (42)
71. Wyoming (1-0)	1.1	22.1 (104)	21.0 (25)	0.0 (29)
72. California (0-1)	0.5	28.6 (67)	28.0 (77)	-0.1 (114)
73. Army (1-0)	0.1	24.4 (94)	24.3 (49)	0.0 (40)
74. Louisville (0-1)	-0.3	33.9 (31)	34.3 (108)	0.0 (61)
75. Colorado (1-0)	-0.5	25.5 (87)	26.0 (61)	0.0 (93)
76. UTSA (1-0)	-0.5	28.5 (68)	29.1 (82)	0.0 (49)
77. San Jose St. (1-1)	-0.7	27.0 (80)	27.6 (76)	0.0 (96)
78. Tulsa (0-1)	-0.7	22.9 (99)	23.7 (45)	0.0 (41)
79. Ga. Tech (0-1)	-1.5	25.3 (89)	26.8 (71)	-0.1 (104)
80. Illinois (1-1)	-1.7	27.4 (77)	29.3 (85)	0.1 (3)
81. San Diego St. (1-0)	-2.6	16.1 (121)	18.7 (14)	0.0 (64)
82. FAU (0-1)	-2.8	22.7 (100)	25.4 (55)	-0.1 (117)
83. Syracuse (1-0)	-3.1	23.4 (97)	26.6 (68)	0.1 (21)
84. Arkansas St. (1-0)	-3.4	30.8 (48)	34.3 (109)	0.0 (76)
85. Oregon St. (0-1)	-3.9	32.3 (41)	36.2 (117)	0.0 (60)
86. WKU (1-0)	-4.1	20.9 (107)	25.1 (54)	0.1 (10)
87. Houston (0-1)	-4.3	26.1 (85)	30.4 (89)	0.0 (90)
88. Arizona (0-1)	-4.4	28.0 (72)	32.3 (99)	-0.1 (106)
89. FIU (1-0)	-4.5	22.4 (101)	27.0 (73)	0.1 (7)
90. Stanford (0-1)	-4.7	27.5 (76)	32.1 (98)	-0.1 (120)
91. EMU (1-0)	-5.6	33.1 (36)	38.8 (123)	0.0 (69)
92. ECU (0-1)	-5.8	27.0 (81)	32.8 (101)	0.0 (32)
93. Georgia St. (0-1)	-5.9	29.7 (57)	35.6 (116)	0.0 (56)
94. MTSU (1-0)	-6.0	24.7 (93)	30.7 (92)	0.0 (79)
95. CMU (0-1)	-6.1	24.8 (92)	30.9 (93)	0.0 (52)
96. N. Texas (1-0)	-6.3	28.0 (74)	34.2 (107)	0.0 (98)
97. WMU (0-1)	-6.9	28.4 (70)	35.1 (113)	-0.1 (128)
98. Air Force (1-0)	-7.0	22.2 (103)	29.2 (84)	0.0 (50)
99. Northwestern (0-1)	-7.0	15.5 (122)	22.5 (37)	-0.1 (116)
100. Ball St. (1-0)	-7.6	26.7 (83)	34.4 (110)	0.1 (16)
101. Ohio (0-1)	-8.7	26.3 (84)	34.9 (112)	-0.1 (121)
102. Ga. Southern (1-0)	-9.1	20.7 (109)	29.8 (88)	0.1 (20)
103. Hawaii (1-1)	-9.9	25.4 (88)	35.5 (115)	0.2 (1)
104. Utah St. (1-0)	-10.2	23.2 (98)	33.5 (104)	0.1 (17)
105. Colorado St. (0-1)	-10.7	18.9 (114)	29.7 (87)	0.0 (85)
106. S. Alabama (1-0)	-10.8	20.1 (111)	31.0 (94)	0.1 (8)
107. Kent St. (0-1)	-11.1	29.1 (63)	40.1 (125)	-0.1 (123)
108. NIU (1-0)	-11.1	19.4 (112)	30.5 (90)	-0.1 (108)
109. La. Tech (0-1)	-12.0	22.0 (105)	33.8 (105)	-0.1 (115)
110. Charlotte (1-0)	-12.3	28.9 (64)	41.1 (126)	0.0 (95)
111. Duke (0-1)	-12.4	19.2 (113)	31.6 (96)	0.0 (54)
112. So. Miss (0-1)	-13.3	17.3 (119)	30.6 (91)	0.0 (83)
113. Texas St. (0-1)	-13.3	24.9 (90)	38.2 (122)	0.0 (97)
114. Vanderbilt (0-1)	-13.6	17.9 (117)	31.6 (97)	0.1 (19)
115. Temple (0-1)	-13.9	18.6 (115)	32.4 (100)	0.0 (100)
116. USF (0-1)	-13.9	17.5 (118)	31.4 (95)	0.0 (86)
117. Miami-OH (0-1)	-14.3	20.2 (110)	34.4 (111)	-0.1 (118)
118. Rice (0-1)	-14.4	13.9 (125)	28.2 (78)	-0.1 (124)
119. UTEP (2-0)	-14.6	23.5 (96)	38.1 (121)	0.1 (9)
120. Kansas (1-0)	-15.6	18.3 (116)	34.0 (106)	0.0 (38)
121. UNLV (0-1)	-16.1	21.1 (106)	37.2 (118)	0.1 (26)
122. New Mexico (1-0)	-16.6	20.9 (108)	37.4 (119)	0.0 (75)
123. Navy (0-1)	-17.6	15.4 (123)	32.9 (102)	-0.1 (126)
124. BGSU (0-1)	-24.0	11.3 (128)	35.3 (114)	0.0 (44)
125. ULM (0-1)	-24.7	17.0 (120)	41.7 (127)	0.0 (78)
126. Akron (0-1)	-25.7	13.7 (126)	39.4 (124)	0.0 (65)
127. ODU (0-1)	-29.3	8.5 (130)	37.8 (120)	0.0 (72)
128. UConn (0-2)	-30.3	13.4 (127)	43.6 (128)	-0.1 (103)
129. UMass (0-1)	-32.8	14.5 (124)	47.2 (130)	-0.1 (125)
130. NMSU (0-2)	-33.6	10.5 (129)	43.9 (129)	-0.1 (127)

[RonT73]

dont want any points... cheers,

[RonT73]

Swings and misses from SP+ and betting spreads in CFB Week 1 games

---

By Bill Connelly



Books 1, Nerds 0.
According to the website Prediction Tracker, sportsbooks betting lines might have just had their best college football opening week ever. Only six of the 47 prediction systems listed there are over .500 against the spread. Week 1 is generally a chance for particularly strong ratings systems to shine, but almost no one did this time around.
That includes SP+. Thus far, the average absolute error for SP+ (the average difference between the projected scoring margin and actual scoring margin) is 13.2 points per game, which would rank second to only ESPN's FPI at Prediction Tracker. But it went just 22-22-2 against the Caesars closing line last week, 20-24-2 against the midweek spread.
We headed into 2021 not knowing how much we could trust the reliability of what we saw in 2020, aka the COVID-19 year, so it probably shouldn't be a surprise that the algorithms would struggle a bit more than usual. (The absolute errors are higher than normal, too.) But let's walk through some of the bigger swings and misses from both the lines and the computer ratings and check on both the reasons for the whiffs and the potential sustainability of the surprises at hand.

---

Marshall 49, Navy 7


Closing line: Marshall -3
SP+ projection: Marshall by 7.3
For the second straight season, Navy started with an outright dud. This one wasn't quite as comprehensive as last year's embarrassing loss to BYU -- the Midshipmen finished seven drives in Marshall territory but turned the ball over on downs twice, missed a field goal and ended both halves inside the Marshall 10 -- but the Marshall offense looked spectacular for first-year coach Charles Huff and veteran coordinator Tim Cramsey.

Army 43, Georgia State 10

Closing line: Georgia State -2.5
SP+ projection: Georgia State by 4.2
Service academy teams can see huge swings from year to year. Navy has gone 3-10, 11-2 and 3-7 over the last three seasons, and Army has gone 11-2, 5-8 and 9-3. It doesn't appear the Black Knights are interested in a negative swing this year. They jumped all over GSU -- first three drives: three TDs for Army, two punts and a fumble for GSU -- and that defined the game.

Rutgers 61, Temple 14

Closing line: Rutgers -14.5
SP+ projection: Rutgers by 9.3
Rutgers was obviously the better team in this one, but with only a +104 yardage advantage the huge scoring margin was pretty unlikely. Rutgers scored on drives of 2, 17, 22, 26 and 28 yards and didn't drive the length of the field until late in the third quarter. Rutgers might be improved further, but the main takeaway here is that Temple self-destructed ... as the Owls did for much of 2020.

NC State 45, USF 0

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CFB: 2021 SEC Best Bets
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Closing line: NC State -20
SP+ projection: NC State by 16.1
The theory about NC State this offseason was that SP+ and other metrics might be undervaluing the Wolfpack a bit by not accounting for Devin Leary's midseason injury last year. That theory certainly got a boost from Leary going 17-for-26 for 232 yards and two scores in Saturday's easy win. But another theory probably got a boost, too: USF might just stink. The Bulls certainly did last year.

Oklahoma 40, Tulane 35

Closing line: Oklahoma -31
SP+ projection: Oklahoma by 25.3
OU allowing 35 points to Tulane rings alarm bells, but as I wrote on Monday, I'm not particularly concerned about the Sooners' defense, at least not yet. The Green Wave still only averaged 5.1 yards per play and drove more than 55 yards just twice. That said, Tulane was also controlling the line of scrimmage far more than you'd expect against what is supposed to be a national title contender.

Iowa 34, Indiana 6

Closing line: Iowa -3.5
SP+ projection: Iowa by 7.2
Smoking hot at the end of last season, the Hawkeyes picked up right where they left off in this one, dominating in the trenches and making life hell for Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. That said, the final scoring margin was definitely skewed by a pair of first-half pick sixes from Riley Moss. They outgained the Hoosiers by only 0.5 yards per play, which is much more conducive to a one- to two-TD win.

South Alabama 31, Southern Miss 7

Sports Betting

CFB: Everything you need for CFB season
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NFL: Super Bowl odds and win totals
NBA: Nets open as 2021-22 favorites
MLB: Best bets for the second half
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Closing line: South Alabama -2
SP+ projection: Southern Miss by 3.9
Due to the difference between SP+ projection and the spread, I came really close to making this one of my best bets, holding off only because the game featured two first-year head coaches. Thank goodness. Kane Wommack's Jaguars jumped all over Will Hall's Golden Eagles, averaging 5.4 yards per play to USM's 3.5, jumping ahead 24-7 early in the third quarter and cruising. Hall might have less to work with than I thought.

Mississippi State 35, Louisiana Tech 34

Closing line: MSU -20.5
SP+ projection: MSU by 21.8
After scoring twice in their first four drives, MSU unleashed one of the worst strings of possessions you'll ever see: three-and-out, fumble, three-and-out, fumble, end of half, five-and-out, fumble, interception, three-and-out. Tech went on a 34-0 run to go up 20, but the Bulldogs scored on each of its last three drives to rally and win. We'll give MSU a mulligan for that mid-game awfulness as long as it doesn't happen again.

Utah State 26, Washington State 23

Closing line: Wazzu -17
SP+ projection: Wazzu by 21.2
Wazzu led 23-11 three minutes into the fourth quarter, having outgained Utah State 5.6 yards per play to 5.2. The Cougars weren't on pace to cover, but it was close. Then Utah State drove 70 and 78 yards for scores and went ahead with 11 seconds left. Utah State had major "Undervalued!" potential after changing coaches and bringing in transfers this offseason, so we'll say this one reflects more on them than the Cougs.

Michigan State 38, Northwestern 21

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Closing line: Northwestern -3
SP+ projection: Michigan State by 3.2
Also from Monday's column: "We might find out in the coming weeks that the Michigan State offense is indeed solid ... but this was arguably Northwestern's worst defensive performance against a team not named Ohio State since about 2016, and the fact that it was also the Wildcats' first game without retired coordinator Mike Hankwitz -- Jim O'Neil replaced him in February -- certainly rings some alarm bells."

---

Week 1's big winner: the under

SP+ may have struggled to break even against the spread, but it was great against point totals, going 28-17-1 (62%). In the 23 games in which it picked the under, it went 17-6 (74%).
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One of the biggest narratives emerging from Week 1 is that "Defenses are back!!" Offenses had the advantage in a COVID-19 year of Zoom meetings, limited face-to-face practices, etc., the thinking goes, and since we saw some defensive slugfests out of the gate -- most notably, Georgia-Clemson and Penn State-Wisconsin -- this is a sign that scoring will be down a bit.
The national scoring average is indeed just 26.2 points per game in all games so far; it was 28.8 after a similar number of games last season, so it's fair to say that offenses have struggled a bit more than normal. But if SP+ did so well picking unders, that's also a potential sign that the point totals were just too damn high to begin with. And a lot of the scoring issues came from a select number of teams.
Let's look at some of the outliers:

North Carolina (lost 17-10 to Virginia Tech)

Caesars projection (via spread and point total): 34.8
SP+ projection: 35.1
Talk about a perfect storm. UNC had new receivers to break in (and a couple of the key ones were hurt), and the Heels faced an experienced and incredibly well-prepared Virginia Tech pass defense. Sam Howell had little to no time to pass, and while the Heels did average a decent 5.6 yards per play, six sacks and three interceptions doomed them.

Clemson (lost 10-3 to Georgia)

Caesars projection: 27.0
SP+ projection: 28.5
New starting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei looked overwhelmed, completing just 51% of his passes at just 9.4 yards per completion and got baited into throwing a pick six for the game's only touchdown. This performance was as disconcerting as it could possibly be, but let's see how Uiagalelei performs against far more mortal competition before we make any lasting judgments. (The same goes for Georgia.)

Wisconsin (lost 16-10 to Penn State)

Caesars projection: 27.8
SP+ projection: 26.6
Actually, the same goes for both Wisconsin and Penn State, too. Both offenses might have been facing the best defense they'll see all season. (Iowa and others might have something to say about that. We'll see.)

Stanford (lost 24-7 to Kansas State)

Caesars projection: 25.0
SP+ projection: 29.7
A previously passive and mostly ineffective Kansas State defense made eight tackles for loss (including four sacks) and picked off two passes. Stanford running backs averaged just 3.1 yards per carry. The Cardinal have won tons of games in the trenches in David Shaw's career, but they were manhandled on the lines and didn't have the play-makers to make up the difference. Yikes.

Ohio (lost 29-9 to Syracuse)

Caesars projection: 26.8
SP+ projection: 31.6
Ohio couldn't stop a suddenly solid Syracuse run game and was destined to lose because of it. But the Bobcats also averaged 5.5 yards per play and managed 20 first downs to just one punt. They drove inside the Syracuse 30 six times but settled for four field goals (missing one), threw a pick and turned the ball over on downs. We're not going to downgrade the Ohio offense, or upgrade the Syracuse defense, just yet.

Georgia Tech (lost 22-21 to NIU)

Caesars projection: 37.8
SP+ projection: 34.5
What a weird game. Georgia Tech trailed 14-0 when starting quarterback Jeff Sims went out with injury. Behind backup Jordan Yates, the Jackets charged back ahead, 21-14, only to lose on a late touchdown and two-point conversion. It's tempting to look past this one because of Sims' injury, but he was dreadful before he left the game, and even in the comeback with Yates, the offense was inconsistent. Bad signs all around.

San Jose State (lost 30-7 to USC)

Caesars projection: 22.8
SP+ projection: 17.9The Spartans get credit for rallying, anyway. After finishing just one of their first eight drives in USC territory and taking a 13-0 deficit into halftime, they put together three sustained second-half drives against what might be a good USC defense. Nick Starkel was 16-for-28 for 212 yards in the second half, and after a bye week SJSU should get back on track offensively against Hawaii.

Washington (lost 13-7 to Montana)

SP+ projection: 46.9
I wrote about the Huskies offense on Monday as well: "Against Montana on Saturday night, the Huskies carved out a nine-play, 78-yard drive to start the game ... then averaged 3.5 yards per play and went scoreless over the final 55 minutes." Washington head coach Jimmy Lake studied under Chris Petersen for years, built one of the most consistently strong defenses in FBS and entrusted his offense to the architect of the dismal 2015 Penn State offense. I'm just not going to understand.

[daneblazer]

dont want any points... cheers,

Thank you, Ron. Sent them anyways.