[jjgold]

We are known for this

[BeatTheJerk]

We are known for this

You ain’t talkin’ ‘bout me motherbleeper.

[jjgold]

Majority jerky

[BIGDAY]

Embrace the CHASE!

[BeatTheJerk]

Majority jerky

If I was this type of player in MLB I’d be up +10k this year instead of down -10k pal.

[SamsNCharge99]

[cincinnatikid513]

chalk it up

[lakerboy]

I don't think so. Yes you have a few guys like Doug but the majority of guys here are always trying to win with dogs. They just don't know how to.

[jjgold]

Mlb true your killing it betting big favs

[RoyBacon]

AA&M -29

[KVB]

[INVEGA MAN]

Chalk in baseball this year is 68%. Not bad being a CHALK PLAYER!! But DOGS ARE DUE RIGHT!! LMAO!

[BeatTheJerk]

Chalk in baseball this year is 68%. Not bad being a CHALK PLAYER!! But DOGS ARE DUE RIGHT!! LMAO!

This fuckin’ killed me this year. I will be cautious next year if this continues & be more on the public chalk side of things, if you have to adjust it must be done. Problem is I couldn’t bring myself to do it for the most part this year, and when I did. I couldn’t time the market right in order to take advantage.

[TheMetsSuck]

Otters blasts the song “I’m coming home” every time he logs in

[jjgold]

Squares bet chalks for the most part and whales

[stevex]

MLB has been killing it with favs this year but that should turn around in September. Tread lightly if you’ve been ridin the MLB fav train.

[Foxx]

We are known for this

SBR is also known for its hamburgers

[KVB]

Chalk in baseball this year is 68%. Not bad being a CHALK PLAYER!! But DOGS ARE DUE RIGHT!! LMAO!

This fuckin’ killed me this year. I will be cautious next year if this continues & be more on the public chalk side of things, if you have to adjust it must be done. Problem is I couldn’t bring myself to do it for the most part this year, and when I did. I couldn’t time the market right in order to take advantage.

It's much more like 60%, not 68%.

Favorites have gotten killed in a few strong runs this season, including the entire months of April and July and flat most other months.

The MLB favorites had one good month this season, in June, and all that did was get back April's losses after May's flat market.

How quickly we forget.

[BeatTheJerk]

It's much more like 60%, not 68%.

Favorites have gotten killed in a few strong runs this season, including the entire months of April and July and flat most other months.

The MLB favorites had one good month this season, in June, and all that did was get back April's losses after May's flat market.

How quickly we forget.

Is that an open or closed number 60% ? So you’re actually saying if you flat bet the underdogs this year your +plus money KVB ? We all know faves get hammered on the open number I gotta think even @ 60% overall covers some ROI% on the year no ?

[BeatTheJerk]

KVB you take advantage of a closing number usually on your bets to sway your value. So that closing number on the dogs that you mainly play have greater ROI% correct ?

[BeatTheJerk]

It’s not that simplistic for you I know lol & there is other market tactics you use to trigger a wager.

[KVB]

Is that an open or closed number 60% ? So you’re actually saying if you flat bet the underdogs this year your +plus money KVB ? We all know faves get hammered on the open number I gotta think even @ 60% overall covers some ROI% on the year no ?

Flat betting either side is a loser, but had you just bet every dog you would have been up +50 units in the first month.

Only to give it all back and then some since then. There was a theaed where I was posting these charts and talking about the difference between value in the number evaporating and the win % of either side.

This is a great topic for me to come back to Jerky. I never did follow up from that other thread. There is some good stuff to get into there on how the market ebbs and flows in both win percentages and value. You can see that when they line up it can spell disaster, or great profit if it lines up right.

Hope all is well pal, I need to catch up, lol, been on a little SBR break.

[BeatTheJerk]

Flat betting either side is a loser, but had you just bet every dog you would have been up +50 units in the first month.

Only to give it all back and then some since then. There was a theaed where I was posting these charts and talking about the difference between value in the number evaporating and the win % of either side.

This is a great topic for me to come back to Jerky. I never did follow up from that other thread. There is some good stuff to get into there on how the market ebbs and flows in both win percentages and value. You can see that when they line up it can spell disaster, or great profit if it lines up right.

Hope all is well pal, I need to catch up, lol, been on a little SBR break.

I understand flat betting on either side is a winner or loser, but the timing of those bets determine a greater ROI% was my point.

[KVB]

KVB you take advantage of a closing number usually on your bets to sway your value. So that closing number on the dogs that you mainly play have greater ROI% correct ?

It depends on the strategy. For contrarian Funds we don't buy openers, we need the market to develop, give us info. For that info, we can pay in price from the opener. But when it's contrarian the best number can be closer to the close if the line is moving, as the public and pressure moves the line. It varies so much.

Often the line isn't moving when it should, the books are taking that position, giving us contrarian bets or looks.

As far as ROI I guess it varies too. Going against those steam moves can be losers, but if the number is right a profit can still be squeezed out over time.

This was a streaky season and my MLB Contrarian Fund, even though it's not always dogs, managed to avoid the losses when the rest of the dogs started bringing the bettors down.

It's amazing the story that can be told with some charts.

[KVB]

I understand flat betting on either side is a winner or loser, but the timing of those bets determine a greater ROI% was my point.

Especially this season. Betting all dogs hada a bettor up +50 units in the first month. Unreal. Meanwhile I'm crying market crash as we have a mountain in the contrarian chart...lol.

Crazy season.

[BeatTheJerk]

Especially this season. Betting all dogs hada a bettor up +50 units in the first month. Unreal. Meanwhile I'm crying market crash as we have a mountain in the contrarian chart...lol.

Crazy season.

I saw you take advantage of that in the month of July as well big-time and your winning percentage were way higher than in a normal month.

[BeatTheJerk]

It depends on the strategy. For contrarian Funds we don't buy openers, we need the market to develop, give us info. For that info, we can pay in price from the opener. But when it's contrarian the best number can be closer to the close if the line is moving, as the public and pressure moves the line. It varies so much.

Often the line isn't moving when it should, the books are taking that position, giving us contrarian bets or looks.

As far as ROI I guess it varies too. Going against those steam moves can be losers, but if the number is right a profit can still be squeezed out over time.

This was a streaky season and my MLB Contrarian Fund, even though it's not always dogs, managed to avoid the losses when the rest of the dogs started bringing the bettors down.

It's amazing the story that can be told with some charts.

Whenever you get some time we can revisit that thread no rush enjoy your time off pal

[KVB]

I saw you take advantage of that in the month of July as well big-time and your winning percentage were way higher than in a normal month.

Yeah, it was that elevated win percentage that was a part of the decision to pull out some of the Funds. I'll show those charts, it's been sideways while I was not posting.

Right now I'm about to eat, not chalk, but cheese.

As in double cheesebuger.

[BeatTheJerk]

Yeah, it was that elevated win percentage that was a part of the decision to pull out some of the Funds. I'll show those charts, it's been sideways while I was not posting.

Right now I'm about to eat, not chalk, but cheese.

As in double cheesebuger.

Enjoy it you fuckin’ big time winner you

[jjgold]

Anytime people bet bigger money it’s always the favorite, It’s been that way since the beginning

[Covering the #]

My rule of thumb is, I never make a bet that can lose more than it can win. Two or three team parlays are the way to go or I use alternate lines to eliminate the juice. Or just straight up dog moneyline bets.

For example, I see Rays are -170 on Thursday which looks like it should win. Am I gonna risk 170 to win 100? Hell no.

This is how I'd look into making a 3 teamer at plus money: Rays ml -170, Ohio St. ml -600, Alabama ml -1000.

Now we only risk 100 at +103.82 odds. Plenty of bettors leave money off the table by not doing things like this.

[Doug tushyterror]

My rule of thumb is, I never make a bet that can lose more than it can win. Two or three team parlays are the way to go or I use alternate lines to eliminate the juice. Or just straight up dog moneyline bets.

For example, I see Rays are -170 on Thursday which looks like it should win. Am I gonna risk 170 to win 100? Hell no.

This is how I'd look into making a 3 teamer at plus money: Rays ml -170, Ohio St. ml -600, Alabama ml -1000.

Now we only risk 100 at +103.82 odds. Plenty of bettors leave money off the table by not doing things like this.

Totally simplistic way of looking at it assuming large ML favs. are gonna automatically win. You do realize with this method you're still risking $100 to win $58 on the Rays at -170 but just rolling over that potential $158 on a 2TP at -600 & -1000?

[The General]

Heavy and all on Ohio State.

[Covering the #]

Totally simplistic way of looking at it assuming large ML favs. are gonna automatically win. You do realize with this method you're still risking $100 to win $58 on the Rays at -170 but just rolling over that potential $158 on a 2TP at -600 & -1000?

This is how I see it. If someone had just only taken the Rays -170 and it loses right off the bat, the parlay saves them $70 by not betting $170. If the Rays win, then there's always the possibility to hedge, (and live bet) the other games and possibly scoop. Could end up even better than +103.82 when all is said and done.

[Doug tushyterror]

This is how I see it. If someone had just only taken the Rays -170 and it loses right off the bat, the parlay saves them $70 by not betting $170. If the Rays win, then there's always the possibility to hedge, (and live bet) the other games and possibly scoop. Could end up even better than +103.82 when all is said and done.

I'm just talking about the $100 you're risking in your parlay. The only reason you're not risking $170 is because of the other 2 teams that are not guaranteed to win to get + money. Unless you're taking one team at + money there's no edge using your strategy to avoid laying juice.