Here's the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund through 104 plays with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison. The snapshot of the last summary is at the top with the supsequent plays and running numbers following...
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|
1 Unit |
Closing |
Beat |
BTC |
|
Record |
Date |
NBA Contrarian Fund |
per bet |
Line |
Closer? |
Average |
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|
46-57 |
|
Feb 22 Summary |
-13.46 |
|
31-30-42 |
0.024 |
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|
|
|
|
|
510 |
46-58 |
26-Feb |
SA +5 (-110) |
-1 |
4 |
Y |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
46-58 |
|
Total |
-14.46 |
|
32-30-42 |
0.034 |
It's nice to see the Fund beating the market during such a sharp downturn, but that alone doesn't guarantee a quick recovery...
Here are the technicals we've been working with so far and they give a little more of a picture...
Notice the SMA 20 play crossing the Upper Bollinger band (remember the Bands are 2 standard deviations from the SMA 10), more than once, during this slide. When this happens, it's usually an indication of change that usually entails some sort of flat market into the next change, usually into a reversal.
So the first time it crossed predicted the flattening here.
Then the next time predicted a bit of a change as well, and now we've broken through a double bottom. With technicals like these, a reversal is usually imminent but not always.
Here's the KVB NCAAF Upset Basket, a market tracking Fund as well. Notice in yellow, it's what we hope to see in the NBA Contrarian Fund, but notice the fuscha circle, change isn't always a reversal...
Originally Posted by
KVB
...While there is evidence that the NCAAB Contrarian market is pulling out of a downtrend as the NBA goes into one, we can't ignore that fact that this has been a pretty drastic drop for a market tracking Fund.
With such a drastic drop, we can expect some sort of recovery...
Originally Posted by
KVB
...the NBA is a tricky animal with a lot fakeouts before the moves.
The truth is, we could be heading into a retraction that could last more than a season, but doesn't mean we can't trade...
Originally Posted by
KVB
...
2019 |
Signal |
Units |
# Bets |
ROI % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
sell |
24.3 |
120 |
20% |
|
buy |
6.61 |
120 |
6% |
|
sell |
26.25 |
120 |
22% |
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|
|
|
|
|
Total: |
57.16 |
360 |
16% |
All three signals went the full 15 trades, meaning there were 120 Total 1 unit bets churned for each signal and you can see the ROI.
Remember how that pesky Contrarian Fund fired off two straight wins after that final sell signal above? That means fading it automatically dropped our units to -29 units with the first two games.
Funny thing though, that was right before the market shakeout and that signal turned out to be +26.25 units with a 22% ROI on the signal..
Even if the market does reverse, it does not guarantee a full recovery.
If we are heading into a known reversal pattern (just look how those current units hug the Lower Band then note the yellow circle in the Upset Basket chart) then I can't stress enough just how tricky the NBA can be and just how long they can stretch the pattern out, with min shakeouts all along the way....