[Orbison]

are these two cases where the books know better than recent results and market perception?

my assumption here (not sure if true) is that bettors would be more inclined to bet the dogs in each of these games (Cards +170 and Reds +165 respectively) rather than the faves. so are books baiting people to take the dogs here at these attractive prices?

of course the Cards aren't very good on the whole but Gant has been a pretty solid starter for them this year outside of a couple performances and overall their staff is more reliable than the Braves. and who would be eager to bet Morton at -185 regardless of opponent, especially considering how poor the Braves' pen has been?

the Braves do remain at home here, are coming off a couple tough losses against the Red Sox, and do have the more reliable offense so perhaps this is a good bounce back spot for them? while the Cards are coming off a home sweep against the Marlins which were all very tight low scoring games that could've gone either way.

as for the Reds/Pads game, everyone knows how much of a slump the Pads are in and they just got swept in Colorado. whereas the Reds have been extremely hot going 11-2 in their last 13 including an impressive sweep at Milwaukee. needless to say.. on the surface, this is another situation of "2 teams going in opposite directions" yet here the Pads sit as -179 chalk tonight. it's Miley vs. Musgrove so the pitching is fairly even on the whole while the Reds' bats have been far more potent than the Pads.

i guess what i'm wondering here is why are linesmakers so confident the Braves and Pads are the right sides tonight?

[Orbison]

these lines don't look funny to anyone else? maybe i'm just overthinking things

[carolinakid]

i agree someone told me early today that over 9 with atl was a done deal............i stayed away

[KVB]

I forecast the CINCI beating SD outright. The public still loving on SD and are looking for SD to come home with a strong outing, perhaps more than is justified, but SD may prove it justified tonight.

I also forecast ATL to handily win. The ATL line seemed right with pressure on ATL in the market as well.

I do think that SD is mispriced, and I use that term loosely, and I lean UNDER for both games.

[Jayvegas420]

Padres score 10+ runs tonight

[jjgold]

Nobody smarter than the bookmaker

[KVB]

Nobody smarter than the bookmaker

Yeah, that's why they take their cues from players.

[pavyracer]

Classic book set up here in these two games. This is how they get players money.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Both teams right back at it tomorrow with large juice again.

[KVB]

Both teams right back at it tomorrow with large juice again.

Yup, and forecasts aside the favorite bettors, the public, are emboldened and the market is seeing their overall money mismanagement in the form of more money when winning.

Already the market for those bettors, who just saw a steep market of winning, is flattening, and it's not really because they aren't winning, it's because they aren't getting paid as much anymore. The bettors are greedy and are already paying for it.

The Contrarian Fund, which crashed during that steep public winning, has won two days in a row now, but less than a unit each day. The market, overall is flattening.

I should do a video on the markets and break it down.

[jjgold]

We know why

[KVB]

We know why

[lonegambler23]

obrisons limits werent high enough to fade

[wombat]

When it looks too good to be true...

[Fred The Hammer]

Well you have to dig into the stats in the case of my Reds. I've been cashing them off and on during their 13-3 streak, but they burned out their best relievers in the last two Milw games 2-1 and 2-1. +165 was great value on them on Friday, but I had to lay off because their pen sucks on the back end. Even the front of their pen isn't good with Antone on the IL. And thats exactly what happened they took the lead in the 9th and the pen gave it right back. Then more of their shitty pen last night too.

Braves are picking it up and they go to Cincy next week for 4. Get ready for a bunch of 8-6 games. The Reds are 20-9 Over at home

[Fred The Hammer]

Wrigley wind blowing out to RF at 19 mph today supposedly! I had Over 8.5 last night in a parlay. Its 9 today so far and Arrieta is a washed up pos. Lopez is pretty decent, but I'll be on Over pretty big today

[pavyracer]

You got to be able to cap games instead of lines to be able to win. The book is going to give you a line for every game. Your job is to predict the winner.

[Fred The Hammer]

Wrigley wind blowing out to RF at 19 mph today supposedly! I had Over 8.5 last night in a parlay. Its 9 today so far and Arrieta is a washed up pos. Lopez is pretty decent, but I'll be on Over pretty big today

6-0 Fish already after 2.5. Arrieta is dogshit. I pounded Over 8.5 and a little on Miami ML parlay

[hubie69]

This is the correct and appropriate response

[Fred The Hammer]

Astros tonite. Can't decide whether 1st 5 or the game? Valdez 1.42 era over 4 starts. 2 vs Red Sox and 1 vs SD. He's nasty! Lance Lynn is no day at the beach, but the Stros top guys have hit him well.

[Fred The Hammer]

Astros tonite. Can't decide whether 1st 5 or the game? Valdez 1.42 era over 4 starts. 2 vs Red Sox and 1 vs SD. He's nasty! Lance Lynn is no day at the beach, but the Stros top guys have hit him well.

Another easy win. 3-0 today. I'm out with SBR after 15 years though. They can go ph uck themselves.