1. #1
    Poisec
    Poisec's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-22-18
    Posts: 1,199
    Betpoints: 3165

    Nadal does not win the French Open, risk 500 to win 450

    Very fine odds considering Nadal is looking terrible, yet he is the big favorite as usual to win the French Open.

    I am just betting on what I see, and this is Nadal 2015 I am seeing recently. I see good value, the public is blinded by the fact it is clay GOAT we are talking about.

    Physically I see a big decline in him, will need to win a lot of matches in straight sets to have a chance to go all the way. Can't see him happening, he is playing terrible and youngsters have now the physical advantage over him. The guy is turning 35 next month.

  2. #2
    Poisec
    Poisec's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-22-18
    Posts: 1,199
    Betpoints: 3165

    Wish me good luck on paper it looks like the worst bet you can make, but only on paper IMO.

    Rooting for Tsitsipas, Djokovic, Thiem, Rublev, these guys are now physically stronger than Nadal.

  3. #3
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,721
    Betpoints: 724

    Get em Poisec.
    Points Awarded:

    Poisec gave Easy-Rider 66 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 390,885
    Betpoints: 856

    Itís a great bet

    Weíve all seen heís not as dominant anymore because of age and thereís a lot a great young players coming up
    Points Awarded:

    Poisec gave jjgold 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    slayer14
    slayer14's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-12-13
    Posts: 20,640
    Betpoints: 3428

    Nadal has a extra gear at french open

  6. #6
    Brooklyn Dick
    Brooklyn Dick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-12-08
    Posts: 948
    Betpoints: 20210

    Nadal is beatable on Clay 2 out of 3 sets. But it is a different story 3 out of 5. That said it is still better to go against him at this price though. But won't be easy.

  7. #7
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 390,885
    Betpoints: 856

    He is 35 years old

    All you need to know

  8. #8
    SamsNCharge99
    5x POTM. 2x Video maker of the year
    SamsNCharge99's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-22-08
    Posts: 40,807
    Betpoints: 4075

    Beat him 3/5. Whats his record there 107-2 or something stupid

  9. #9
    Foxx
    Foxx's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-25-11
    Posts: 5,313
    Betpoints: 4944

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    It’s a great bet
    We’ve all seen he’s not as dominant anymore because of age and there’s a lot a great young players coming up
    Kiss of death for your bet Poisec. Sorry for your loss.

  10. #10
    slayer14
    slayer14's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-12-13
    Posts: 20,640
    Betpoints: 3428

    Next year go against nadal not this year he seems very emotional to win another french this year

  11. #11
    DR225
    DR225's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-24-11
    Posts: 2,009
    Betpoints: 24

    You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.

  12. #12
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 390,885
    Betpoints: 856

    DR excellent point!

  13. #13
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 23,073
    Betpoints: 12468

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    DR excellent point!
    Not one to (normally) question one's bet. This bet strikes me as insane.

    For a while, the pundits thought Nadal might NEVER lose at Roland Garros. Guy's track record at French and on Clay (in general) is crazy good. Would think he could win, even if he's at 60%.

    Good Luck!

  14. #14
    Thrilla
    Hillary my Queen
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 13,457
    Betpoints: 9355

    Homie1975 check in pls

  15. #15
    Maizey
    Maizey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-11-18
    Posts: 140
    Betpoints: 7252

    Quote Originally Posted by DR225 View Post
    You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.
    Valid point, but not a certainty. By waiting, you also give up the possibility of him going out early with an injury.

  16. #16
    El Nino
    October 2014 POTM
    El Nino's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-03-12
    Posts: 18,421
    Betpoints: 1151

    Thought the same thing last year...

    Maybe you'll get lucky with an early injury. Otherwise, come the quarters, semis, and the final you'll get better odds on his opponent.

  17. #17
    Poisec
    Poisec's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-22-18
    Posts: 1,199
    Betpoints: 3165

    Quote Originally Posted by DR225 View Post
    You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.
    Not necessarily, cannot predict but let's suppose he looked vulnerable to reach the quarters and faces Thiem who looked good, Thiem would be at +300, if Nadal wins the match, faces Tsitsipas, goes through and faces Djokovic in the final. You lost money on Thiem and Tsitsipas already and get +150 on Djokovic in the final. Not a great deal.

    I see your point but so many things can happen that I didn't want to bother.


    @El Nino yeah last year I thought Nadal wouldn't win but didn't dare to pull the trigger, glad I didn't. This year I am going to trust my gut feeling on this one. Rome will give some answers.

  18. #18
    PharaohUB
    PharaohUB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-23-07
    Posts: 4,822
    Betpoints: 120

    I like it. Which book are you making this bet?

  19. #19
    Poisec
    Poisec's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-22-18
    Posts: 1,199
    Betpoints: 3165

    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    I like it. Which book are you making this bet?
    Thanks. It's a lay bet on Easysportbet (a Betfair broker). If you are in the US I guess you can use Orbitx through Asian Connect, the odds should be the same.

  20. #20
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 23,073
    Betpoints: 12468

    Quote Originally Posted by Poisec View Post
    Thanks. It's a lay bet on Easysportbet (a Betfair broker). If you are in the US I guess you can use Orbitx through Asian Connect, the odds should be the same.
    Hope u win, man. Ballsy call.

    It's one of those things. How much are historical stats baked into the line? What is reality?

    I love all sports. I'll give u a comparison that might sound ridiculous:

    *Recent USA Olympic qualifying tournament: Burroughs vs Dake.

    Dake is younger, he had been chasing down Burroughs for years. Burroughs held the national team spot for 10 yrs.

    Surely, Burroughs had to be the Fav. (Note: not sure there was a line). As it played out, Dake dominated and won.

    When you look back at it, how could Dake not be the fav? He was stronger, younger, less burnt out.

  21. #21
    Poisec
    Poisec's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-22-18
    Posts: 1,199
    Betpoints: 3165

    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Hope u win, man. Ballsy call.

    It's one of those things. How much are historical stats baked into the line? What is reality?

    I love all sports. I'll give u a comparison that might sound ridiculous:

    *Recent USA Olympic qualifying tournament: Burroughs vs Dake.

    Dake is younger, he had been chasing down Burroughs for years. Burroughs held the national team spot for 10 yrs.

    Surely, Burroughs had to be the Fav. (Note: not sure there was a line). As it played out, Dake dominated and won.

    When you look back at it, how could Dake not be the fav? He was stronger, younger, less burnt out.
    Good point, I say the odds are based on reputation and past performances of course, he lost only 2 matches at the French Open but last time I saw him that bad on clay was in 2015 and he lost at the French Open in the quarters. I just hope he won't be in the same half of the draw as Medvedev
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat

  22. #22
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 23,073
    Betpoints: 12468

    Poise, if u get this one right, you'll look like a genius and be the envy of us all.K

    Keep us posted on what # u get down on. Hope u get Field +100 or better. Good Luck!

  23. #23
    cincinnatikid513
    get busy living au revoir
    cincinnatikid513's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-17
    Posts: 44,635

    he's starting to look human on clay

  24. #24
    PharaohUB
    PharaohUB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-23-07
    Posts: 4,822
    Betpoints: 120

    If we think nadal might be dethroned this year thiem seems a good play at 8-1. Heís been the second best performer in this tournament in recent years and he seems to have a knack of turning it on for grand slams even if his recent form isnít convincing

  25. #25
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 390,885
    Betpoints: 856

    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    If we think nadal might be dethroned this year thiem seems a good play at 8-1. He’s been the second best performer in this tournament in recent years and he seems to have a knack of turning it on for grand slams even if his recent form isn’t convincing
    seem suffering from depression

    stay away from him

  26. #26
    hawkwind
    hawkwind's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-25-11
    Posts: 2,790
    Betpoints: 14066

    Like IT GL

  27. #27
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 23,073
    Betpoints: 12468

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    seem suffering from depression

    stay away from him

    Theim it is!

  28. #28
    chargers4222
    chargers4222's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-16-10
    Posts: 4,664
    Betpoints: 3688

    There is one guy playing better and more consistently than anyone else in the world and I haven't heard him mentioned one time in the RG winner conversation -- Aslan Karatsev.

  29. #29
    stepaside777
    stepaside777's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-16-17
    Posts: 1,378
    Betpoints: 4795

    i think it makes sense
    i have already won against nadal by betting on zverev and rublev as i said the same hes not that amazing anymore, but time will show
    if he can win RG federer will win wimbledon

  30. #30
    PharaohUB
    PharaohUB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-23-07
    Posts: 4,822
    Betpoints: 120

    Quote Originally Posted by chargers4222 View Post
    There is one guy playing better and more consistently than anyone else in the world and I haven't heard him mentioned one time in the RG winner conversation -- Aslan Karatsev.
    I plan to put a little on him but it seems guys who come out of nowhere like that donít do well in grand slams in my humble experience. I think the top guys pace themselves better and train for grand slams where karatsev trying to win everything.

  31. #31
    TheMetsSuck
    TheMetsSuck's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-14-12
    Posts: 5,963
    Betpoints: 48

    Lotta value. I personally would never bet against Rafa in the French. Betting Rafa to win the French have been some of the biggest wins in my gambling career.

    Good luck

  32. #32
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 390,885
    Betpoints: 856

    Nadal has tough match tomorrow be sinner

  33. #33
    Unrivaled
    Unrivaled's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-24-11
    Posts: 6,695
    Betpoints: 5234

    I don't like this at all. Djokovic not in form, who will beat him?

  34. #34
    Unrivaled
    Unrivaled's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-24-11
    Posts: 6,695
    Betpoints: 5234

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Nadal has tough match tomorrow be sinner
    French open starts May 23.

  35. #35
    jjgold
    Update your status
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 390,885
    Betpoints: 856

    Tomorrow
    More important to Nadal
    Than French

1234 Last
Top