1. #1
    MinnesotaFats
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    Any trend on home team going from fav to dog?

    Bos was -1 earlier, now +2 versus Por here

    Seems like a must play...

  2. #2
    Chi_archie
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    a very big % of games that come up in a back testing data scrap would come from games with late injury/personnel news

    I'm assuming today's move has to do with Jaylen Brown Status

  3. #3
    carolinakid
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    a lot of these circle games , like the boston game today, it better to stay far away from

  4. #4
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    a very big % of games that come up in a back testing data scrap would come from games with late injury/personnel news

    I'm assuming today's move has to do with Jaylen Brown Status
    Yes, you cannot cap that


    Too many variables


    What a rook


    Fatty must play chess
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  5. #5
    carolinakid
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    update for the boston game
    05/02/21 03:42:24pm Pacific
    NBA: Game 551-552 Injury Status Games PTS REB AST STL BLK
    Boston Celtics SG Jaylen Brown Ankle Probable 57 24.8 5.9 3.3 1.3 0.6
    is upgraded to probable Sunday vs Portland

  6. #6
    KVB
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    How far you want to stretch it Minny?

    For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

    Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

    I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

    And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

    But, here's some fodder for you...

    Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

    Thats 105-105-2.

    Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

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  7. #7
    MinnesotaFats
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    How far you want to stretch it Minny?

    For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

    Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

    I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

    And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

    But, here's some fodder for you...

    Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

    Thats 105-105-2.

    Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

    That's a really fukked up stat lol
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  8. #8
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Yes, you cannot cap that


    Too many variables..
    This is not entirely true but you do make the obvious point.

    You can cap that, though.

    Like I keep saying, the future of capping NBA probabilities about capping a players probability to play.

    They have played so many games with this questionable and will he or won't he that there is enough data to gauge the probability of a questionable or game time decision playing.

    Yes it's advanced, but I've worked with that very software myself.

    I know that more than one group uses similar stuff.

    It's all about information and how it's given, at least most of it.

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  9. #9
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
    That's a really fukked up stat lol
    Isn't it though?

    Plenty more where that came from.

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  10. #10
    jjgold
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    Point spread covers are all random every sport


    If you do know that quit gambling

  11. #11
    KVB
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    Day to day weather seems random too, Gold, but the overall climate has trends.

    Just like in that jagged little chart above.

    If you know a beginning and end point, you knock randomness down to the level of watching games.

    Which you know we don't do.

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  12. #12
    funnyb25
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    Tough....I usually bet early....but for late bettors when line crosses 0, it should be a "no play"
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  13. #13
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    How far you want to stretch it Minny?

    For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

    Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

    I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

    And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

    But, here's some fodder for you...

    Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

    Thats 105-105-2.

    Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

    kvb with the solid data
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