1. #1
    Chi_archie
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    Immortal Frickin Deadbolt

    not as big of a bet as in basketball or football. But IFDs for baseball are bigger bets

    we love getting a red hot pirate team playing with confidence at home on a quick turn around from last night's game.

    Mitch Keller on the mound is an absolute stud and he got nicked with some cheapies in his first two starts

    but this is the kid that threw 2 consecutive no hit outings to end 2020 for 11 straight hitless innings. His stuff is that good.

    pads have NEVER seen his filfthy stuff

    gotta pound these home dogs in favorable spots

  2. #2
    Brock Landers
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    The oil city native loves his pirates

  3. #3
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    This Padres team just cannot hit. Lost 2 games in a row on Padres TT. Wonít bet them again

  4. #4
    pablo222
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    I like it
    GL

  5. #5
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by USCPHILLYGUY View Post
    This Padres team just cannot hit. Lost 2 games in a row on Padres TT. Won’t bet them again
    same and lost both -1 bets here as well.

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    Pitt and Detroit good money teams

  7. #7
    JIBBBY
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    Dodgers just keep winning also. Never a bad bet even with the juice from game to game.

  8. #8
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Dodgers just keep winning also. Never a bad bet even with the juice from game to game.
    Took them last night -1.5 -120

  9. #9
    jjgold
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  10. #10
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    So of course SD 4 in the 1st

  11. #11
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Pitt and Detroit good money teams
    Pitt is 5-7 this year and you'd be up about +1.5 units if you had bet the same unit on ever game so far.

    Det is 6-6 this year and you'd be up about +4 units if you had bet the same each game.

    The Boston Red Sox started the season 0-3 (-3 units) but have won 9 in a row to be the most profitable team so far in the MLB betting the same each game this year at about +6 units.

    The next team on my money list is SF Giants who are 8-4 so far, in the same unit boat as Detroit at about +4 units.

    Bos (9-3), SF (8-4), DET (6-6), SEA (6-5), and LA Dodgers (10-2) all each offering about a 25% ROI so far this year when betting the same unit on each game.


  12. #12
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Pitt is 5-7 this year and you'd be up about +1.5 units if you had bet the same unit on ever game so far.

    Det is 6-6 this year and you'd be up about +4 units if you had bet the same each game.

    The Boston Red Sox started the season 0-3 (-3 units) but have won 9 in a row to be the most profitable team so far in the MLB betting the same each game this year at about +6 units.

    The next team on my money list is SF Giants who are 8-4 so far, in the same unit boat as Detroit at about +4 units.

    Bos (9-3), SF (8-4), DET (6-6), SEA (6-5), and LA Dodgers (10-2) all each offering about a 25% ROI so far this year when betting the same unit on each game.

    Soon time to fade them all as they revert to the mean.

  13. #13
    deltgen
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    Both KVB and d2 are on the ball. I'm making some good coin from Detroit and Seattle, but also Kansas City. The Dodgers are my favorite team but there is too much juice to lay on them. I will keep hitting them while I can but the linesmakers are going to get hip to those teams pretty soon.

  14. #14
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Soon time to fade them all as they revert to the mean.
    What is soon? Do you mean the league mean, the team's mean, the overall league mean? You talking about a 1 year or multiyear mean?

    You talking about ROI or units or record?

    Over the last two years the ending league leader in units had a continual rise in units, through some variance, and the was no "reverting to the mean" (any mean) but when it comes to ROI, it can be a different story...because of the number of games by the end.

    Sometimes the market, public, and opposing teams simply underestimate teams, and it can happen through an entire season.
    Points Awarded:

    deltgen gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  15. #15
    INVEGA MAN
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    Dogs last two days are killing it!!

  16. #16
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltgen View Post
    Both KVB and d2 are on the ball. I'm making some good coin from Detroit and Seattle, but also Kansas City. The Dodgers are my favorite team but there is too much juice to lay on them. I will keep hitting them while I can but the linesmakers are going to get hip to those teams pretty soon.
    Records too.

    I somehow doubt the Dodgers win 80% of their games, but then again they are a scoring machine and that does equate mathematically, although it's value is better observed season to season rather than within season.

    I can explain that more if anyone wants to hear it, but it will based on pythagorean principles.

  17. #17
    deltgen
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Sometimes the market, public, and opposing teams simply underestimate teams, and it can happen through an entire season.
    This. We can use all the math and science we want, but when it comes to baseball--the eyeball test is just as important.

  18. #18
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by USCPHILLYGUY View Post
    Took them last night -1.5 -120
    Yup I took the Dodgers in the last 5 games and won every game. Loving it

  19. #19
    pologq
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    dodgers are $$$ but have to take -1.5, -2, etc. cannot bet ML really.

  20. #20
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    dodgers are $$$ but have to take -1.5, -2, etc. cannot bet ML really.
    It's a close one with the -1.5 and the recent streak made a difference.

    Here's the betting 1 unit on the ml vs 1 unit on the RL, it's a basic estimate as numbers do vary at books. The ML is about +3 units while the RL is closer to +3.5 units but the RL has slightly trailed most of the season so far...


  21. #21
    Chi_archie
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    Well poop


    I'm so angry, I'm gonna go down town and break some store windows to vent!!!

    If when I woke up, you said to me " the pirates will lose today, Archie"

    I'd have said " get out of town, you knucklehead!"

    And here we are

  22. #22
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    It's a close one with the -1.5 and the recent streak made a difference.

    Here's the betting 1 unit on the ml vs 1 unit on the RL, it's a basic estimate as numbers do vary at books. The ML is about +3 units while the RL is closer to +3.5 units but the RL has slightly trailed most of the season so far...

    that is interesting.

    i wonder, with the dodgers, if taking -2 is better than taking the -1.5.

  23. #23
    deltgen
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    that is interesting.

    i wonder, with the dodgers, if taking -2 is better than taking the -1.5.
    I agree, this is interesting. Thanks KVB. I don't play the ALT lines too often, but I'm with you pologq--might be worth a shot here and there.

  24. #24
    Shute
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    If you arenít betting dogs in baseball then you are square

  25. #25
    deltgen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shute View Post
    If you aren’t betting dogs in baseball then you are square
    I'm with you Shute. My record so far is but 26-25 on straight wagers, but my opening day deposit of $100 has turned into $340 (I'm strictly a small potatoes type of gambler).

  26. #26
    JIBBBY
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    Follow and pick up on the W/L streaks in MLB as they pay off over time maybe more then any other sport..

  27. #27
    segu
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  28. #28
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    that is interesting.

    i wonder, with the dodgers, if taking -2 is better than taking the -1.5.
    I don't have any prices on the -2 but if you've been looking at the alt lines you might have an idea.

    With the last win the record against -2 is now 6-4-3. At -150, the breakeven is 60%. Are you paying that much for the -2's?

    Depending on the prices, the potential for ties might eat into the overall profit.

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