1. #1
    stevenash
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    Happy 2021 MLB New Year All

    It's Christmas morning for me.

    I had to take a mini four day vacation from SBR (and nobody noticed goes to show I am not relevant) but like a bad check I am back. I've been busy with baseball business for the past four days.

    Let's talk all things MLB 2021 and it starts today.

    The baseball season is the ultimate grind, it's not NFL.
    NFL there's 16 or now what? 17 games to the season and once a week.
    NFL is still king, Sunday's in the autumn and winter or still an event in many households but it's not MLB

    MLB is a grueling 162 game, five games a week for each team for six consecutive months

    These are my opinion, and my opinions only.
    I have .been a student of this game for a lifetime.
    Since I have been eight years old.

    Let's talk about today, opening day and beyond.

    13 games today, a few weather related postponements.

    5 NL games.
    5 AL games.
    3 Inter games.

    Five games are at or around -200
    There's a reason for that. Those games feature the elite pitchers in the game today.
    Pitching wins, always has and always will.
    The line makers know this and this is why those games are at or around -200.

    I don't lay -200 in baseball as a stand alone wager.
    Never have and never will.
    Baseball is in some ways is like the start of a major poker tournament.
    Would you go all in at the start of the WSOP championship at level onw?
    No

    You lay -200 on a baseball game and lose you need to win two flat bets at even money just to get even.
    No thanks.

    I would only lay -200 on a MLB game if the Lord and Savior Himself Jesus Christ was toeing the rubber.
    Last time I checked, Cole, Bieber, Kershaw, and the rest are not Jesus Christ.

    If you must bet the chalk my opinion is, and it's just that, bet the chalk with another chalk game today in a money line two team parlay to reduce the damage just in case (and it happens a lot) the chalk pitcher you laid crazy juice on teams loses. Jansen blowing the game for Kershaw in the ninth, Chapman blowing the game in the ninth for Cole in the ninth for instance. Not you fault you lost at 2:1, but it did.... Get my point.

    I can't bet LA, and I can't fade them.
    Kershaw is still a tough lefty and I don't fade tough lefties.
    I can't bet Kershaw because I don't lay -250 and Marquez is a quality pitcher.
    Just because Marquez pitches in Denver, the shittiest city in the world to pitch in doesn't make him a shitty pitcher.
    Hardly.
    LAD bats might be in a for a tough day.
    Can't bet this game.

    Yanks and Cole -180 makes no sense.
    Ryu is a quality lefty, I don't fade quality lefties, and Toronto is light years improved and should consider.
    Bet the dog might be the way to go.

    Can't bet Bieber, he and the Tribe should roll.
    I don't lay 2:1

    Can't bet SD.
    I don't lay 2:1 but the Pads should roll and compete all season.

    I got my eye on three games today.

    Braves and Phils.
    Nola against Fried.
    Both good teams with very good pitching and will go toe to toe with each other all season.
    Watching it for sure, betting it? No fukking way.
    The game is a man to man pick 'em for a reason
    Because it's a coin flip.
    Doesn't mean I won't watch it. I will.

    White Sox and Angels.
    Giolito and the White Sox at pick 'em might be the way to go today.
    More later, but I expect big things this season for the Sox,

    Brewers and Twins.
    Woodruff has scary filthy shit and might be the next big thing.
    I like the Brews here at pick.

    Cards and Reds
    Same reasons as the Phils/Braves.
    Two rivals in the same division with two excellent starters going at it.
    Won't bet it, it's a coin toss, but as a student and lover of the game I damn sure will watch it.

    Lastly.
    My beloved KC Royals.
    After winning it all six years ago we/I have been suffering,
    Finally KC has a team that will at least keep up.
    KC at -140 at home is too steep for me, and Keller is a good ground ball pitcher.
    GO ROYALS!
    Sorry guys can't bet on us yet.

    Not for nothing SF much later with Gausman is a sneaky good bet later at pick.
    Maybe, more later.

    The last time SF was bettable was in 2014 when Mad Bum was winning a ring for the Giants and making me and my KC Royal community cry like a baby and that over six years ago and Mad Bum has moved on.

    No plays yet, when I make a play I'll post it for all of us to see.

    More later I have work to do.
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    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Stryder

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  2. #2
    Buckandadime
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    GL Nasher...
    Any thoughts on Houston today?

  3. #3
    Otters27
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    Tigers and Jays starting off hitting the Aces

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otters27 View Post
    Tigers and Jays starting off hitting the Aces
    Which is why I say and said...

    a) Toronto is light years improved.
    b) Toronto starts a quality LHP and it's risky business fading quality LHP.
    c) Yanks with Cole are seriously overpriced today around -180 or so.
    d) Toronto at +175 would be the way to go.

    I don't bet much the first week or so for various reasons, I will but I'm in this for the long haul (six months) and even though you may have a very good idea as what to expect, sometimes that never happens. More often than you think.

    MIGGY WITH THE STICK!
    God bless Miggy and Albert too on the west coast.
    Both of them on a one last power drive before they head off to the Hall five years from now.

    Watching that Miggy tater made me cry tears of joy.
    And even though I said Tribe should roll I don't lay -200, and if you did right now that ticket isn't looking very good.
    I am not patting myself on the back, they both did not win yet, just pointing some things out as to why I don't lay -200.

    GOD BLESS MIGGY

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  5. #5
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckandadime View Post
    GL Nasher...
    Any thoughts on Houston today?
    Yeah I do.
    I am not a Houston fan for a lot of reasons.
    One of the happiest days of my baseball life was in 2015.
    Game 4, ALDS, elimination game for my KC Royals .
    KC is down 6-4 with six outs left in the season.
    Those mother fukking arrogant Astro players and fans were already dancing in the streets, I was there (well no there physically) I saw it all.
    It was typical Houston arrogant, juvenile bullshit and the game wasn't over.

    6-4 down, eighth inning, elimination game.
    What happens? Every KC regular Royal gets on base except Alex Gordon and hos out was a RBI producing out.
    Ground ball up the middle.... Oh no this could be the end of the inning for KC... OMG the ball skips off the mound hops over Correa's glove and over his shoulder.... Another KC run, six runs in the eight, the greatest comeback for any team I root for. Ever.
    What makes it sweeter, those Astro fans and players all had shit on their face.

    Oh yeah, I don't like the Asteros.

    But today I do.
    I'm thinking of a small 1/2 unit play there.
    On paper (but games are played on the field, not paper) the 'Stros are in a pretty good spot here.

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  6. #6
    thezbar
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    Happy New Year WE got Games.

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  7. #7
    Smoke
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    I love you Stevie Nash

  8. #8
    johnnyvegas13
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    Gl this yr Nash

    we know u love bases

  9. #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    I love you Stevie Nash
    I love you more Smokey.
    Even more than Gummo, Daggles, KVB, Fideles, and Gold.
    And that's a whole lotta love.

    The only person I love more than you is me Smokey, nobody loves me more than me. (don't 'ya know?)

    Best of luck as always Smokey, thanks for dropping by.

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  10. #10
    pologq
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    i noticed you were gone nash. i was about to write you a note

  11. #11
    cincinnatikid513
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    surprised they didn't keep dh for national league
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 04/08/2021

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  12. #12
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    i noticed you were gone nash. i was about to write you a note
    Thanks.

    I love this dysfunctional site but I had to leave SBR alone for four days for a lot of reasons.
    Today is the start of a new business quarter 4/1
    I had to close out March and the first quarter of 2021 (home and professional business) that's paperwork thant needs to be done without distractions.

    I had my annual NBFC National championship to draft for last night, that takes hours to finalize all your notes to have an efficient draft,
    I had two doctors appt....

    Well let's just say I've been buried, busy crazy all week.

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  13. #13
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    surprised they didn't keep dh for national league
    Yeah man, both leagues or no leagues for the DH is what I say, especially in this day and age of interleague play.

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  14. #14
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Yeah I do.
    I am not a Houston fan for a lot of reasons.
    One of the happiest days of my baseball life was in 2015.
    Game 4, ALDS, elimination game for my KC Royals .
    KC is down 6-4 with six outs left in the season.
    Those mother fukking arrogant Astro players and fans were already dancing in the streets, I was there (well no there physically) I saw it all.
    It was typical Houston arrogant, juvenile bullshit and the game wasn't over.

    6-4 down, eighth inning, elimination game.
    What happens? Every KC regular Royal gets on base except Alex Gordon and hos out was a RBI producing out.
    Ground ball up the middle.... Oh no this could be the end of the inning for KC... OMG the ball skips off the mound hops over Correa's glove and over his shoulder.... Another KC run, six runs in the eight, the greatest comeback for any team I root for. Ever.
    What makes it sweeter, those Astro fans and players all had shit on their face.

    Oh yeah, I don't like the Asteros.

    But today I do.
    I'm thinking of a small 1/2 unit play there.
    On paper (but games are played on the field, not paper) the 'Stros are in a pretty good spot here.
    Thanks for the story and play Nasher...
    I was leaning that way but needed a push..
    GL

  15. #15
    stevenash
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    You see what I mean now about laying juice and betting chalk in baseball.

    Let's use 100 dollars as one unit in this example, or 1* if you will

    If you bet Cole and the Yanks you lost 1.85 * or 185 dollars.
    If you bet the Cubs and laid that ridiculous -225, you are out 225 dollars.
    If you bet the Indians with Bieber, ouch, you lost another 225 dollars.

    If the Dodgers don't score 3 runs in the ninth, and my money is they will not, this one hurts the moot. You are out minus 250 dollars more.

    The Padre game (-225) is late in the eighth with SD holding a paper thin 1 run lead.

    This is why I say every chance I can say it. Betting chalk in baseball will kill your bankroll, and the only time I'll lay -200 is when the Lord and Savior Himself Jesus Christ is toeing the rubber and the last time I checked Kershaw and Bieber are not Jesus Christ.

    If you wagered one flat unit (100 dollars) on each of the four aforementioned heavy favorites, you aren't out 400 dollars, you are out 885 dollars.

    That means you now need to win nine consecutive 1* flat bets to get back to even even if you bet 30 favorites going forward and the average price of the 40 bets you made were say -150 you would have to win 22 of them to go just slightly ahead.

    Thins about it, 22 and 8 at -150 you would collect 2200 dollars for the 22 wins, you would lose 1200 at -150 odds for a net profit on 1000.
    That would wipe out your one day losses of -885 dollars.

    Good luck with all that, call me on July 1 if you accomplish it.

    Two things.
    a) are you a good enough baseball hadicapper to all of a sudden go on a 22 and 8 run?
    Is your bank roll big enough to handle those 30 games.
    To bet 30 games where the average price is -150 you need at least a bankroll of another five thousand dollars.
    30 games at -150 for 100 dollars a bets is 4500 dollars.

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  16. #16
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    You see what I mean now about laying juice and betting chalk in baseball.

    Let's use 100 dollars as one unit in this example, or 1* if you will

    If you bet Cole and the Yanks you lost 1.85 * or 185 dollars.
    If you bet the Cubs and laid that ridiculous -225, you are out 225 dollars.
    If you bet the Indians with Bieber, ouch, you lost another 225 dollars.

    If the Dodgers don't score 3 runs in the ninth, and my money is they will not, this one hurts the moot. You are out minus 250 dollars more.

    The Padre game (-225) is late in the eighth with SD holding a paper thin 1 run lead.

    This is why I say every chance I can say it. Betting chalk in baseball will kill your bankroll, and the only time I'll lay -200 is when the Lord and Savior Himself Jesus Christ is toeing the rubber and the last time I checked Kershaw and Bieber are not Jesus Christ.

    If you wagered one flat unit (100 dollars) on each of the four aforementioned heavy favorites, you aren't out 400 dollars, you are out 885 dollars.

    That means you now need to win nine consecutive 1* flat bets to get back to even even if you bet 30 favorites going forward and the average price of the 40 bets you made were say -150 you would have to win 22 of them to go just slightly ahead.

    Thins about it, 22 and 8 at -150 you would collect 2200 dollars for the 22 wins, you would lose 1200 at -150 odds for a net profit on 1000.
    That would wipe out your one day losses of -885 dollars.

    Good luck with all that, call me on July 1 if you accomplish it.

    Two things.
    a) are you a good enough baseball hadicapper to all of a sudden go on a 22 and 8 run?
    Is your bank roll big enough to handle those 30 games.
    To bet 30 games where the average price is -150 you need at least a bankroll of another five thousand dollars.
    30 games at -150 for 100 dollars a bets is 4500 dollars.
    so do you bet the run line or bet the other side?

  17. #17
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    so do you bet the run line or bet the other side?
    This just my opinion and my opinion alone as I don't want to tell anybody how to bet.
    Advice is OK, but I don't like to dictate.

    OK. betting home favorites on the run line is risky business as the home team is never guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.
    If you like Jacob deGrom at home and you bet the Mets at -140 on the run line instead of -220 which is probably what deGrom's price will be at home this season unless he's facing SD or LAD.

    deGrom pitches lights out vs. say the Pirates but only wins 3-2.
    Mets and deGrom win but your money line is sunk as you are the home team so you don't need the bottom of the ninth.
    The visiting road team is always guaranteed the ninth inning at bats, the home team only eight innings unless they need the ninth, and if the home team does need that ninth inning at bat chances are your money line ticket is down the crapper anyway.

    I do bet the run line but only on these occasions and not all the time.
    I think the run line with a leagues top ten aces on the mound against a mediocre home team.
    Again, using deGrom as an example Mets are on the road say in Miami, and I like deGrom in this spot.
    I will very highly consider taking the Mets and lay 1.5 runs at -120 instead of money line -180 or so

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  18. #18
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I love you more Smokey.
    Even more than Gummo, Daggles, KVB, Fideles, and Gold.
    And that's a whole lotta love.

    The only person I love more than you is me Smokey, nobody loves me more than me. (don't 'ya know?)

    Best of luck as always Smokey, thanks for dropping by.
    Say what now?

  19. #19
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Say what now?

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  20. #20
    stevenash
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    Looking at the White Sox today with Keuchel.

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  21. #21
    jjgold
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    Take Note

    Yankees have 2 auto outs in lineup Judge and Stanton

    Two most overrated players in game and mainly strike out and not advance runners and that is a major problem with a dead ball

  22. #22
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Looking at the White Sox today with Keuchel.

    Keuchel loves the Angels..
    GL

  23. #23
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckandadime View Post
    Keuchel loves the Angels..
    GL
    I know.
    The only one that really hits him is that Trout fella.

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  24. #24
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    I know.
    The only one that really hits him is that Trout fella.
    Yeah, he's shown signs of promise @ the Pro level...

  25. #25
    jjgold
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    Never ever bet a baseball team -130 or more

  26. #26
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Take Note

    Yankees have 2 auto outs in lineup Judge and Stanton

    Two most overrated players in game and mainly strike out and not advance runners and that is a major problem with a dead ball
    Oh yeah. They have flaws.

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  27. #27
    jjgold
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    Nashy Will you be an under player this year?

  28. #28
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Nashy Will you be an under player this year?
    Later in the season.
    I'm on record as saying this will be the year of the pitcher.
    I'm holding to that.
    Yesterday was an anomaly.

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  29. #29
    stevenash
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    Pleasac and the Indians on the road, run line looks like a sound play.

    I'll take the better starter and team on the road here.
    I won't lay the -150 but I'll take the -100 (pick 'em) with the -1.5 runs.

    This is an example of when I will bet the run line.

    Not for nothing you can track my overall record in the contest forum.

    My White Sox play hit yesterday.
    In this tread I am 1 and 0 but overall if you go to the contest forum you'll see I am 4-2 but plus a little over 3 units.
    2 losses were at even money, the four wins were dogs (plus money)

    Who you guys got today?

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  30. #30
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Pleasac and the Indians on the road, run line looks like a sound play.

    I'll take the better starter and team on the road here.
    I won't lay the -150 but I'll take the -100 (pick 'em) with the -1.5 runs.

    This is an example of when I will bet the run line.

    Not for nothing you can track my overall record in the contest forum.

    My White Sox play hit yesterday.
    In this tread I am 1 and 0 but overall if you go to the contest forum you'll see I am 4-2 but plus a little over 3 units.
    2 losses were at even money, the four wins were dogs (plus money)

    Who you guys got today?
    GL Nasher...
    I like the Twins today..
    Berrios hit upper 90's in spring training and I think he becomes Minnesota's ace this year..
    Leaned the Phillies but don't think I'll pull the trigger..

  31. #31
    pimike
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    Good stuff Steve.

    Going with the work horse tonight in Lynn and Under the 9

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  32. #32
    mackave
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    good to see you nasher BOL this season

  33. #33
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    Looking at Civale tomorrow nasher

  34. #34
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by mackave View Post
    Looking at Civale tomorrow nasher
    Could be.
    Breaking down todays activity now.

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  35. #35
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by mackave View Post
    Looking at Civale tomorrow nasher
    Yeah.
    Indians run line is my afternoon play.

    -120

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