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PGA Tour golf best bets: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play ⛳
PGA Tour golf best bets: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
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The PGA Tour heads to Austin, Texas this week for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
This event was canceled last year because of the pandemic. Kevin Kisner won in 2019 and was runner-up in 2018.
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Jon Rahm 14-1; -110 to win Group 3
Fallica: Chalk usually isn't the way to go in match play, but this is a good group for Rahm, who has a good relationship with Ryan Palmer, whom he won Zurich with a few years back. So I don't think we're going to see him run "hot" here with emotions. He's been a top 10 machine on tour and was runner-up to Dustin Johnson in this event in 2017.
John Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau 14-1 to win
Marks: March Madness finds its way to the links this week! Bryson is my Gonzaga, and Rahm is my Baylor! Either have a chance to win and I have them battling it out in the final round on Sunday. Bryson is first in shots gained, off-the-tee his last 24 rounds, loves Pete Dye courses, and ranks in the top 5 birdie or better on par 4s. His distance off the tee will be intimidating. Rahm is 7-4-2 in this event in his career, and potentially has the easiest road to the finals coming out of Group 5. His most difficult challenge should be Patrick Reed in the semi finals to get to Bryson.
Paul Casey 22-1; +150 to win Group 9
Bearman: Casey has been great at this event, no matter the location. In 11 career appearances in the event, Casey has two runner-up finishes (2009-10) and two losses in the final eight. Since moving it to Austin with a new group format in 2016, he has advanced out of group play three of five times, losing in the quarterfinals in 2016 and in the round of 16 twice. Taking a look at his group (only one will advance to the knockout phase), he has Webb Simpson, who advanced out of group play in Austin one time, and Mackenzie Hughes and Talor Gooch, who are both making their debuts. His recent play as been great, finishing T-8, T-5, T-10, T-5 in his last four events, all against stacked fields. Casey is 17th in the all-important shots gained tee-to-green metric and 15th on approach. Casey's perfect combination of recent good form, course and event history, as well as in a group that doesn't have much success should make him a legit contender this week in Austin. I will play him to win his group at +150 and at nice odds to win it all. He also has four Ryder Cup appearances and plenty of match play experience.
Tony Finau 28-1; +150 to win Group 12
Fallica: Wouldn't it be something if Finau, who has yet to win an "A" event on tour gets a win in a WGC Match Play event? He played great at the Presidents' Cup, won his 2018 singles at Ryder Cup and his mental approach of not putting too much pressure on himself will bode well for him in match play. He's got a couple of guys in Jason Kokrak and Will Zalatoris playing solid golf in his group, but I think he's a solid favorite here.
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1; +275 to win Group 2
Bearman: Group 2 might be the best group in the field. You have both finalists from 2019 (Kevin Kisner over Matt Kuchar), as well as Justin Thomas, who just won The Players Championship two weeks ago. But I am rolling with Oosthuizen, who lost to Kisner in the quarters in 2019, lost in the round of 16 in 2018 and was runner-up to Jason Day in 2016. Even prior to the move to Austin, Oosthuizen was great in this event, advancing to the final eight in 2014 and 2015. I'm not one to say "someone is due," but Oosty has done everything but win this thing. A third-round 74 cost him at The Players, but he finished T-6 at the WGC-Concession and T-11th in Scottsdale, so he comes in playing well. Kisner, who made finals in this event the last two times, and Thomas will both be popular picks, so this is sort of a contrarian play of sorts -- but with a very good player, with a very good history.
Kevin Na 100-1; +320 to win Group 1
Bearman: Wait, what? He's taking someone who is in the same group as world No. 1 Dustin Johnson? To defeat him one-on-one? Yeah, this might not be the smartest play, but hear me out. This event is drastically different that all others and not one you typically load up on favorites. With three group play matchups for everyone in the group, it's not just Na vs DJ. Na's success in this format has been great in Austin, where he advanced to the quarterfinals in 2019 and the round of 16 in 2017. Yes, DJ won it in 2017, but he has failed to advance out of group play each of the last two times the event was played. You can't beat DJ on his "A game," which he had the entire first part of this year, but he also finished T-54 and T-48 at The Concession and The Players in his last two events. We are getting 100-1 here for a guy who won in Hawaii a few weeks ago and more than 3-1 to get out of the group. Once he does that, we'll have knockout stage matchups for hedge opportunities.
To win Group bets
Rory McIlroy +125 to win Group 11
Bearman: What's stopping me from picking Rory to win this event is his poor play over the last few weeks, as well as recent news he has a new swing coach. But if there is an event to get him back on track, it's this one. He won it all in 2015, was runner-up in 2012, lost in the semifinals in 2016 after the event moved to Austin and won his group in 2019. He has played in the last five Ryder Cups, so he has plenty of match play experience in addition to his results in Austin. As far as his competition in his group, Lanto Griffin is playing for the first time and Cameron Smith has only played this twice, going 0-3 last time out and not seeing the 18th hole. The big obstacle for McIlroy likely will be Ryder Cup teammate Ian Poulter, who is somewhat of a match play wizard, winning this event in 2010 and winning the 2011 Volvo World Match Play. However, he only qualified as an alternate and hasn't finished in the top 15 of any event since October. This lines up for Rory to win the group and get his game back in form, but I am not ready to pick him to win it all just yet.
Paul Casey +150 to win Group 9
Fallica: Casey has had a ton of success in this event with seven top 10s, which includes a pair of runner-ups. He'll have to deal with Webb Simpson, who plays so well on Pete Dye courses, but his career resurgence should again put him in the mix for a deep run here.
Marks: Casey has a good draw in that his biggest threat to not making it out of Group 9 is Webb Simpson. Webb has struggled in match play events, where Casey is 27-15-2 career in this event. Casey ranks 15th in shots gained on approach this season, and if his putter shows up this week, watch out!
Sergio Garcia +210 to win Group 8
Fallica: A virtual "home game" for Sergio should put his mind in a good spot this week and that should equate to a successful run, despite the presence of three solid Englishmen in his group. Garcia has been in the top 10 each of the last two years in the match play event.Garcia went 3-1 in the last Ryder Cup, including a singles win over Rickie Fowler.
Bearman: Anyone who reads this column weekly or reads anything I tweet knows I habitually pick against Sergio, especially after he has a good round or good week. However, I think this is a good spot for him. He won his group each of the last two appearances, going 3-0 in 2018 and 2-1 last year, advancing to the quarterfinals. He also has plenty of Ryder Cup experience, playing for Team Europe in each of the last nine Ryder Cups. He hasn't lost a singles match there since 2008, going 3-0-1 since. His group features solid players, but Lee Westwood hasn't made it out of group play since the move to Austin and showed signs of running out of gas last week after back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Florida swing. Matt Wallace went 1-2 in his lone appearance, and while Tyrell Hatton (the group favorite) has won his group each of the last two years, he has only one top-20 finish since winning in Abu Dhabi in January. This should come down to Hatton vs. Garcia, and I like Sergio in this spot based on recent form.
Jason Day (+240) to win Group 6, win match (+100) over Scottie Scheffler
Marks: Day is ranked 20th in shots gained off-the-tee this season. He excels on Pete Dye courses, and in match play with a singles record of 24-14. A previous winner in both 2014 and 2016, Day knows what it takes to win and advance.
Tommy Fleetwood +275 to win Group 5
Fallica: Some of Fleetwood's best golf has come in the Ryder Cup, where he went 4-1 in 2018. And while Bryson DeChambeau might be able to apply a lot of pressure on folks with his long drives, it might also bring bogey into play often -- enough for a grinder like Fleetwood to win the group.
Patrick Reed (+138) to win Group 7, win match (+138) over Bubba Watson
Marks: Reed excels in match play as well, sporting a 9-6-2 record in 5 trips to Austin. I don't see anyone in his group that can challenge this match play stud.
Marc Leishman +333 to win Group 16
Bearman: Leishman's odds indicate he is picked to finish second to last in his group, but we have a golfer who has made the round of 16 three times in the last five appearances, including going a perfect 3-0 in 2019 in his group. The Aussie hasn't played great of late, missing the cut at TPC Sawgrass and the API and only has one top 10 (T-4 in Hawaii), but I don't think his group is that tough either. Victor Perez and Sungjae Im have never played this course or event before. Russell Henley is fresh off a top 10 last week at the Honda, but has never made it out of group play under this format and never made the round of 16.
Erik van Rooyen (+400) to win Group 14, win match (+155) over Daniel Berger
Marks: van Rooyen doesn't have much competition in this group. Berger is dealing with a rib injury, Harris English and Brendon Todd have been struggling as of late. Give me the dog to pull the upset!
First round matchups
Sergio Garcia (+100) over Lee Westwood
Marks: Sergio's game is dialed in (T9 at The Players), especially with his irons, and is ranked fourth in shots gained off-the-tee in the past 24 rounds. He excels in match play events (38-29-4 in singles), and is very familiar with this track - considering Austin is home. I would imagine Westwood is a little spent at this point as well.
Tyrrell Hatton (-120) over Matt Wallace
Marks: Hatton could play spoiler to Sergio in Group 8. His singles record is 9-6-1, and he finished in the top 10 here in 2019. Hatton has finished in the top 25 in the majority of his events this year, ranks 8th in shots gained on approach, and 19th off-the-tee this season.
Victor Perez (+105) over Marc Leishman
Marks: Perez comes in hot (T9 at The Players), but has a difficult group (Im, Henley, & Leishman). I do like his first match against Leishman, whose game is struggling at the moment.
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