Best bets for UFC 260: Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou 2

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It's the first time in over three years that heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic has faced an opponent not named Daniel Cormier. It's a seemingly fresh matchup for the heavyweight championship, despite it being a rematch of a January 2018 title challenge from Francis Ngannou.


Though slightly favored in his first title shot against Miocic, Ngannou lost a lopsided decision. Yet his recent four-fight knockout win streak (including three knockout of the night bonuses) has earned him a second shot at the champ.


The betting odds are near where they closed in 2018, with Ngannou as a slight favorite. And that's kind of the theme for UFC 260 -- a lot of close matchups and no runaway favorites. That doesn't give much room for low-risk parlays. But the additional uncertainty of new talent introduces volatility and perhaps opportunities for gamblers willing to scout tape. From a data-driven perspective, however, we're left with slim pickings on a card with few matchups between established fighters.


Early prelims are at 6 p.m. Saturday on ESPN/ESPN+, prelims start at 8 p.m. ET on ESON/ESPN+ and the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.


Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Heavyweight championship: Champion Stipe Miocic (+105) vs. No. 1 Francis Ngannou (-125)


Tale Of The Tape

STIPE MIOCIC FRANCIS NGANNOU
Last fight weight class Heavyweight Heavyweight
Age 38 34
Height 76 76
Reach 80 83
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Analyzed minutes 195 67
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 7:3 6:0
Distance knockdown rate 2.3% 11.1%
Head jab accuracy 39% 27%
Head power accuracy 42% 28%
Total stand-up strike ratio 0.9 1.5
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 63% 65%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.46 0.02
Takedown accuracy 35% 0%
Advances per takedown/top control 0.8 NA
Opponent takedown attempts 17 35
Takedown defense 71% 71%
Share of total ground time in control 90% 4%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.00 0.20
After Miocic's lone title fight loss to Cormier, the trilogy took a long time to play out. But Miocic survived and earned GOAT status by earning his belt back, then defending it once more for good measure.


But those three recent title fights were back-and-forth striking battles between two competent wrestlers, and that's not what we'll see this weekend. The matchup against Ngannou remains what it was in 2018 -- a wrestler versus a power striker.


In their first meeting, Miocic landed takedowns in all but the final round, spending several minutes during each round in control on the mat or on the fence. The domination of position nullified the distance striking of Ngannou and left him with little option but to defend.


Three years later, the most important question is whether Ngannou has tightened up his wrestling defense. He doesn't have to be the next Miocic or Cormier on the ground, but he does have to keep his distance long enough to land punches.


If he can do that, even just a few times, he has the power to put Miocic down. With a knockdown rate of over 11% per power head strike landed at a distance, Ngannou is arguably the most dangerous striker in the UFC. But he's also, quite literally, hit or miss. His power striking accuracy is actually below average for the division, and twice (against Miocic and Lewis) he's been hesitant or just unable to let his hands go. Ngannou is a rare binary fighter who has found himself positioned for a title.


How has Miocic aged these past three years with minimal activity? And how has Ngannou rounded out his game to handle a two-level threat? Age and development favors Ngannou, which could allow him to land just one more clean shot than he did in their first matchup. And that could be enough.


E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Ngannou. If the prop for a KO finish offers better value, take it, as that's the only way he wins.
Best bets elsewhere on the card

Three years later, the most important question is whether Ngannou has tightened up his wrestling defense. He doesn't have to be the next Miocic or Cormier on the ground, but he does have to keep his distance long enough to land punches.


If he can do that, even just a few times, he has the power to put Miocic down. With a knockdown rate of over 11% per power head strike landed at a distance, Ngannou is arguably the most dangerous striker in the UFC. But he's also, quite literally, hit or miss. His power striking accuracy is actually below average for the division, and twice (against Miocic and Lewis) he's been hesitant or just unable to let his hands go. Ngannou is a rare binary fighter who has found himself positioned for a title.


How has Miocic aged these past three years with minimal activity? And how has Ngannou rounded out his game to handle a two-level threat? Age and development favors Ngannou, which could allow him to land just one more clean shot than he did in their first matchup. And that could be enough.


E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Ngannou. If the prop for a KO finish offers better value, take it, as that's the only way he wins.
Best bets elsewhere on the card

It's hard to fathom that former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley (+210) is riding a three-fight losing streak, but that's where things are. But in his defense, he has only lost to champions or title contenders. Still, at 39, Woodley is taking on a risky opponent in Vicente Luque (-260), who brings some of the skills that have stumped Woodley's game plan in recent matchups.


Luque offers an aggressive and highly accurate pace of distance striking, which could score better on the cards than Woodley's hesitant counters. Woodley will still have the power threat, but he has had trouble unleashing his best attacks when smothered with constant pressure. His best plan would be turning this into a wrestling match and grinding out the better part of three rounds.


As the co-main event, it's only a three-round fight, Woodley's first since 2015. But even in defeat he ha held on until into the fifth round. While the numbers lean toward Luque's pressure, the wild card of Woodley's big counters against Luque's lax defense -- or even a concerted wrestling effort from Woodley -- make it risky to trust their opposite career trajectories too much.


E+ recommends: Slight money-line lean on Luque. Better to take over 2.5 rounds or fight goes to decision.




Jessica Penne (+100) returns to the cage after a near four-year absence from a USADA suspension. But through her prior UFC run, which included a title shot, Penne's best fights were spent on the mat. Most of her wins have come by submission, and that could be an angle here against relative newcomer Hannah Goldy (-120) if the fight hits the mat.


On the other side, Goldy's powerful counters and kickboxing would clearly be a threat against Penne's poor strike defense, and that also offers finishing potential. The odds are close in determining a winner, but there's more finishing potential than usual in this strawweight matchup.


E+ recommends: Prop lean on fight does not go the distance at nearly +260 or more.