PGA Tour golf best bets: WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession ⛳
PGA Tour golf best bets: WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession
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Fresh off the West Coast swing, the PGA Tour now heads to Florida for the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession. Patrick Reed won last year's event by one stroke over Bryson DeChambeau.
Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted. Bets to win
Dustin Johnson +650; Top-5 finish (+138); Johnson-Jon Rahm finish 1-2 (50-1 at DraftKings)
Marks: This is a big boy golf course, so I'm rolling with the top golfers in the world to score well on this track. There is no cut, so the winner will have to bring his "A" game all four days. Concession is a cerebral golf course, and DJ is the best on tour when it comes to visualization and mental maneuverability. On top of that, he checks all the boxes to win this week: strong play on Jack Nicklaus courses, fifth in driving distance, first in strokes gained on approach, ninth in strokes gained around the greens and ninth in greens in regulation this season. This is his tournament to lose.
Jon Rahm 10-1; Top-10 finish (-118)
Fallica: When you're dealing with a new course with no real course history, when in doubt, go with guys who drive the ball in the fairway and hit greens, as the putting part is pretty random. Rahm fits that bill for me. Yes, it's a Florida course and that's something to keep in mind with some guys as we head east, but Rahm played great Sunday at Riviera and maybe he's starting to get a feel of the new clubs he's playing with. He has five top 7s in his last six starts and figures to be in it.
Bearman: There is no course history to go on, as this is the first PGA Tour event held at The Concession. One thing we do know is the course has tough par-5s; they make up four of the five hardest holes on the course, according to the PGA Tour site. Schauffele has the fourth-best scoring average on par-5s this season at 4.40. The X-man is one of the most consistent golfers on tour, finishing in the top 25 in 16 consecutive starts, becoming just the third player with a streak that long, according to the PGA Tour. The other two? McIlroy and Tiger Woods.
Schauffele has gone more than two years since his last win, but one of his four wins was the WGC-HSBC Champions event in 2018. He lost to McIlroy in a playoff the next year at the same event and has seven top 10s in 14 major starts. He comes to play at big events, and this is the first big event of the season. Schauffele leads the tour in overall strokes gained, is sixth in putting and eighth in strokes gained tee-to-green. I'm betting Xander ends his two-year drought and will also be taking him in top 10s and 20s, somewhere he consistently lands when he doesn't win.
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Kezirian: Koepka's last two results - a win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open then T-38 at the Genesis Invitational - are a microcosm of his up-and-down season. The over 7,500-yard course will benefit Koepka who has the 15th ranked driving distance as he'll be able to make some headway before getting to the difficult approach shots. He is only gaining 0.3 strokes approaching the green but makes the most of his approaches, ranking 15th in birdie or better percentage when going for the green. The Florida native is poised for a strong performance in his home state and looks to have another "up" weekend at The Concession.
Patrick Reed 28-1; Top-10 finish (+275)
Bearman: I am one of the few people who loves betting on and rooting for Reed. I know he does dicey things on the course and doesn't lend himself to being friends with his fellow colleagues, but neither did Tiger in his day. But I am betting on his golf game, not his friendships. He has won this event two times, albeit at different courses (one at Doral and once in Mexico) and, much like Schauffele, shows up at big-time events. He has his Masters win, four other top 10s at majors and four other top 10s at WGC events outside of his two wins. After winning in runaway fashion at Torrey Pines in late January, he played the Saudi event and has taken the last two weeks off, so he should be well-rested. He is second in strokes gained putting, which will be very important on the undulating greens, is eighth in overall strokes gained and plays the par-5s well, ranking eighth on tour.
Kezirian: This will be Reed's first event since his victory at last month's Farmers Insurance Open. The Concession Golf Club's layout is Augusta-like and many of the greens have tough surroundings with numerous bunkers and steep slopes which can make chipping difficult. But the former Masters champ excels in difficult circumstances surrounding the green. He is 1st in scrambling from the fringe and 7th in sand save percentage, meaning he can recover from any mistakes on his approach, and once he gets on the green his elite putting can continue to separate him from the pack. Everything is there for Reed to capture his 10th PGA Tour Victory this weekend.
Daniel Berger 28-1
Kezirian: Berger, like Reed. is also coming off a victory having won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am just over one week ago. He is 22nd in total strokes gained with 1.359 and his stellar approach game will help him avoid many of the difficult terrain surrounding the greens. He is 48th in strokes gained approaching the green but 11th in hit green percentage when going for the green. Even if he misses the green by a bit, he still has the ability to recover as he has a scrambling percentage of 72.5% from 10-20 yards. Berger has the tools to overcome the challenge of The Concession and there's good reason to believe he'll be in the mix on Sunday.
Fallica: In his brief career, Im has shown a liking for Florida courses. Last year, he won the Honda Classic and then finished third at Bay Hill. He also finished third at Bay Hill and fourth at Valspar in 2019. He fits the profile of players I want to bet here -- 13th strokes gained off the tee and 26th in greens in regulation. Im has yet to truly contend since the Masters, but he has the game to do so here.
Cameron Smith 40-1; Top-10 finish (+350); Top-20 finish (+140)
Bearman: Another guy who is great on par-5s is Smith, who, fresh off his fourth-place finish at Riviera, sits second in par-5 scoring average at 4.36. It wasn't all that long ago that Smith shot four rounds in the 60s at Augusta to finish runner-up. He has had some success at WGC events in the past with four top-25 finishes, including two in this event (T-6, T-22) when it was in Mexico. At 40-1, you are getting a great price for a guy who very well could win his first WGC event.
Fallica: Niemann ranks in the top 20 in both strokes gained off the tee and greens in regulation. He's 28th in the world and has twice been in position to win this year in Hawaii. It will be a big ask to beat this WGC field, but at this price he's worth a flier to win and also to post a top-10 finish.
Kezirian: Kokrak is looking to get back on track after only one top-20 finish in his last seven events following his win at The CJ Cup last October. That event was at Shadow Creek, a longer course like The Concession, and Kokrak will again this weekend be able to use his 9th-ranked total driving to his advantage. He doesn't let the drives go to waste either, as he has a solid 71% greens in regulation percentage and is one of the top putters on the tour ranking 10th in strokes gained putting. Kokrak is an all-around player and his versatility makes him a threat this weekend.
Woodland isn't a hot pick but there is still some promise when it comes to the PGA Tour veteran. The lengthy course will allow him to use his 26th-ranked driving distance to its full advantage, and he actually is stronger on longer approaches, ranking in the top 25 in approaches from 175-250 yards. This will benefit him on the many holes on the course that are upwards of 500 and even 600 yards. He also gets stronger in scrambling at longer distances around the green, ranking 18th in scrambling from 20-30 yards. Woodland knows how to make something good out of a difficult situation, and that resiliency could see the former U.S. Open champ make a surprise run for his 5th PGA Tour victory.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 175-1
Kezirian: Bello has played over a decade on the PGA Tour and is still searching for his first victory, but the longshot has some things working in his favor at The Concession this weekend. Approaches will be paramount, and Bello gets a birdie or better 65% of the time when going for the green to go along with his 25% hit green percentage. He has shown promise in his short game as well gaining 0.8 strokes around the green and holding a 69% scrambling percentage from 10-20 yards. Bello has an uphill battle, but don't be surprised if he can stay in contention deep into the weekend, allowing you to play out of some positions. With longshots like this, I like to play a small fraction of a unit.
Johnson/Schauffele to win (+400)
Bearman: To me, these two represent the best two shots to win and I have already taken Schauffele at 16-1. Wanting two shots at it, I'll roll with the prop of both of them at +400.
Other bets
Dustin Johnson top-5 finish (+140)
Bearman: DJ let us down last week with a poor Sunday that kept him from a top-5 finish for the first time since he finished all the way down at T-6 at the U.S. Open in September. Prior to that? The WGC event in early August, where he finished 12th. Simply put: he is the best player in the world, and if he wins, I want a piece of it. I will also look to take him in live betting if he has an average Thursday.
Rahm top-5 finish (+188); Rahm-Johnson finish 1-2 (50-1 at DK); Top continental European player (+125 at DK)
Marks: Rahm shot a final-round 66 on Sunday at Genesis, so he comes in hot (T-5 finish). Two thirds of WGC events have been won by players ranked in the top 10, and Rahm sits just outside at 13 right now, but he is ready to pounce. Much like DJ, Rahm checks all the boxes: strong play on Nicklaus courses, T-17 in driving distance, 14th in strokes gained on approach, 16t in greens in regulation and first in par-5 scoring this season.
Tony Finau top-5 finish (+400); Top-10 finish (+175)
Bearman: If you have a well and it's producing, keep going to it. We've all heard it for weeks, if not months now... Finau contends but doesn't win -- and last week was the latest episode, where he missed a 7-footer to win on the first playoff hole and then a 9-footer on second playoff hole to continue. Finau hasn't won an event since 2016 Puerto Rico Open. That has not detracted him from excellent play, and if you are betting anything but him winning, you are cashing weekly. His last four worldwide events: three runner-ups and a T-4. I've stated in this column numerous times that I am not going to pick him to win until he does so again, but I will keep firing on top 5s and top 10s. Could he win? Absolutely. But odds are not in his favor, so I am going to pass on the 20-1. According to ESPN Stats & Information, since the tournament's inception in 1999 (which includes Doral, Mexico and now Florida's west coast), only one golfer has won with one or fewer career victories (Mike Weir in 2000).
Schauffele top-10 finish (+130); Johnson-Schauffele finish 1-2 (66-1 at DK)
Marks: Schauffele delivers every week and loves playing in big events. This is huge value to get plus money in the top 10. His metrics shine: 21st in driving distance, 21st in strokes gained on approach, 20th in strokes gained around the greens, T-45 in greens in regulation, top 5 in par-5 scoring, sixth in putting -- and he's one of the best on Bermuda greens this season.
Finau top-10 finish (+150); Johnson-Finau finish 1-2 (90-1 at DK); Finau over Berger (-129 DK)
Marks: It was a very disappointing finish for Finau last week, who was a 7-footer away from a win and ended up losing in a playoff to Max Homa. Following the tournament, I received a text from a pro caddie that read: "The reason I preach Finau every week is because last time I was with him, his ball-striking and directional control was the best I've seen from anyone in the last 12 or so years." I'm sold! I'd love to pick him to win at 20-1, but I see a ton of value for him to finish in the top 10 at plus money. His metrics this season: T-40 in driving distance, 10th in strokes gained on approach, 36th around the greens, and T-55 in greens in regulation.
Rory McIlroy top-10 finish (+150)
Fallica: Rory had his consecutive cuts made streak snapped last week, but if you look at his track record in WGC events, it's incredibly strong. One can expect Rory to bounce back this week, and while I wouldn't play him to win, I would take the odds on a top-10 finish.
Fallica: Hovland isn't the best putter around, but his tee-to-green numbers are among the best on tour. He'll give himself plenty of looks at birdie, but how many he makes will determine if he's in the mix to win or simply post another top 5 like he did at the Farmers and Genesis.
Daniel Berger top-10 finish (+240); Top-20 finish (-110)
Bearman: According to Pat Mayo's Fantasy National database, only one golfer in the field is in the top 20 in his past 24 rounds on Bermuda in shots gained tee-to-green, ball striking and putting. That man is Berger, who is 11th or better in all three and is coming off his walk-off eagle at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. I am not picking him to win, since winning consecutive events is very rare, but a top finish and tournament matchup wins should be money this week.
Hovland top-20 finish (-137)
Fortenbaugh: No sense in trying to outthink the room with this one as Hovland has demonstrated remarkable form of late, posting a T-5 or better in three of his last four starts while finishing 15th or better in six of his last eight outings. In a field of less than 80 golfers, Hovland can go toe-to-toe with most when it comes to comparing recent resumes.
Sungjae Im top-20 finish (+110); Top Asian player (-110)
Marks: Im does well in Florida and is a beast on Bermuda greens (seven of his top 10 finishes have come on Bermuda). His metrics: 19th in driving accuracy, 57th in driving distance and 26th in greens in regulation this season. He has also has played well on Nicklaus-designed courses (Ball Hill and PGA National).
Marks: Morikawa's metrics scream top 20. He ranks T-27 in driving accuracy, third in strokes gained on approach and 10th in greens in regulation this season. He also has had success on other Nicklaus courses, at Bay Hill and Muirfield Village.
Marks: Fitzpatrick finished T-5 at The Genesis last week, won on the European Tour a few weeks ago and plays well at WGC tournaments. He is a master with his irons and his metrics bode well: 26th in strokes gained on approach and top 5 in putting on Bermuda greens his last 24 rounds.
Marks: He had another top-15 finish last week, so let's keep it rolling. He is T-19 in driving distance and ninth in strokes gained on approach this season.
Marks: Griffin has fared well at no-cut events. His metrics this season -- 65th in driving distance, 32nd in strokes gained on approach and 13th in putting -- keep him in the top 30, if not better.
Kezirian: : This is solely a fade of Max Homa, who just notched his second career PGA Tour win last weekend. Receiving the trophy on Sunday from Tiger Woods, who he idolized, was a dream come true and his emotions were palpable. I expect that to remain the case all week. Thus, this has all the makings of regression and a lack of focus. I'm not thrilled with the idea of backing Sergio Garcia but sometimes that is how the betting board shakes out and you have to roll with it.
Marks: Kokrak is ranked 19th in the world and his metrics will allow him to have success this week. He is T-47 in driving distance, 35th in greens in regulation and is top 10 in putting this season. Fleetwood hasn't played in the U.S. since November.
Daniel Berger (+100 at DK) over Tony Finau
Fallica: Last week's runner-up vs. the winner two weeks ago. Finau doesn't have a top 20 in a WGC since 2018, and his best finishes have come in the HSBC in China. So, call me skeptical this week on his chances. Berger has four top 20s in his last seven WGC events, and I sense a comfort level for him playing in his home state.
Fortenbaugh: It's more than likely you haven't heard much of Hatton lately given the time he has spent on the European Tour, but don't sleep on the 29-year-old who, over his last 20 starts, has racked up 12 top-20s with three outright wins. Hatton has also shredded this event in recent years (T-6, T-19, T-3, 10th), but it's worth noting those results took place on a different course. Thomas followed up a T-13 in early February at the Waste Management Open with a missed cut at Riviera this past weekend, so I'm more than willing to back a 'dog in this spot who has been demonstrating bankable form of late.
Marks: Hatton has been playing well on the European Tour, finishing no worse than T-22 over the last month. This play is more about JT's circumstances away from the course. JT lost sponsors due to an unfavorable choice of words, and he lost his grandfather two weeks ago.
Fallica: Neither has been in great form this year, but Leishman has at least shown signs. Matsuyama is currently 83rd in driving accuracy, 98th in greens in regulation, has posted one top-40 finish since the start of 2021 and missed the cut at Riviera last week. Leishman's stats aren't great, but he has managed to get some good finishes this year -- fourth at the Sony Open, a top 20 at the Farmers and 32nd last week at Riviera. Plus, he has played well on Florida tracks.
Marks: Bezuidenhout has played well on the Euro Tour (four starts this season with two top-20 finishes). This will be the first time he tees it up on American soil in 2021. His putter is hot enough to keep him near the top of the leaderboard, and he has good driving accuracy and solid iron play.
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PGA Tour golf best bets: WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession ⛳
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