UEFA Champions League best bets for the first leg of the round of 16 ⚽
UEFA Champions League best bets for the first leg of the round of 16
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Bayern Munich and Manchester City are co-favorites to win this season's UEFA Champions League, and both begin the knockout stage this week, as the first legs of the round of 16 conclude.
At +300, it's not worth playing the futures market on Bayern or City, and the only title play that appeals to me at all is Atalanta at 40-1. Otherwise, just bet your preferred team to advance in each round. Here's what else I like this week.
Under Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea has averaged 69% possession but only 1.0 non-penalty expected goals per game. As he said after Saturday's 1-1 draw at Southampton, "We were very, very good in the first 80 metres of the pitch, but in the last 20 I was not happy. We were not decisive enough, we were not aggressive enough."
Atletico's numbers back up the club's recent reputation for a solid defense and just enough offense. The La Liga leaders have allowed the joint-fewest La Liga goals this season (16) and the fewest expected goals (20.7), and they're putting up only 1.5 expected goals per game.
Six of Chelsea's seven games with Tuchel have had two or fewer goals, with an average of 1.7 non-penalty expected goals per game. Plus, the game is in Bucharest, so both teams have significant travel after playing Saturday. All that makes the obvious under play still worthwhile, even with a lot of juice.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-190) Lazio vs. Bayern Munich
Entering its first Champions League knockout stage in 21 years, Lazio has been on a good run in league play, winning seven of its past eight games. The underlying numbers aren't quite as flattering though: in those seven wins, Lazio has 11.7 expected goals to opponents' 7.1.
Bayern Munich comes in on a relative skid, winless in two straight league games after drawing Arminia Bielefeld on the 15th and losing 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. However, Bayern outshot each opponent by over double digits, with 1.4 more expected goals than Arminia and 0.6 more than Eintracht.
Before those two stumbles, Bayern had won seven straight games in all competitions, outscoring opponents 15-2 with a similar edge in expected goals (16.5 to 6.4). Don't be worried about last week's results. Take advantage of the favorable shift in Bayern's odds (which were -170 before the weekend) and stick with the defending champion in this one.
The biggest storyline here is Real Madrid's injuries. Karim Benzema, Eden Hazard, Sergio Ramos, Dani Carvajal, Fede Valverde and several others missed Saturday's tedious 1-0 win over 19th-place Valladolid, and Benzema in particular is in doubt for this first leg.
Because of those issues and Real Madrid's generally unconvincing form, Atalanta is now a slight favorite in this game, and the value is gone on an Atalanta win (+140). The Italian club is also down to +163 to advance, from +210 after the draw in December.
With or without Benzema, the Real Madrid attack hasn't been great lately. Madrid has topped 1.6 expected goals once in nine league games since Christmas and struggled even more early on, tallying 0.7 expected goals in the first half twice in those nine games.
A year ago, Atalanta jumped on Valencia early in this round, scoring twice on 1.4 expected goals in the first half. No La Liga team presses with as much consistent aggression as Atalanta, and that will give the Italian side the edge, particularly at the beginning of the match.
Atalanta's games against good teams also tend to be goalfests, as their eight games vs. top-seven Serie A teams have averaged over three expected goals, so I may talk myself into over 3.5 goals (+130), though Real Madrid's offensive woes give me pause.
No team on the planet is playing better than Manchester City, which has won 18 straight matches in all competitions, and deservedly so. In those 18 games, City has outshot opponents by an average of 15 to 6, with an average expected-goals advantage of 2.1 to 0.5.
Conversely, Borussia Mönchengladbach is winless in four straight Bundesliga matches, with a total of three goals and 2.8 expected goals in those games. Not good when Europe's best defense (0.7 expected goals per league game) awaits in Budapest, plus Kevin De Bruyne and the City attack are getting healthy.
During the win streak, City has scored in the first half in 14 of 18 games and led at half 12 times. I like City to jump on Gladbach early, and City to win (-285) is a reasonable play too.
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UEFA Champions League best bets for the first leg of the round of 16 ⚽
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