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Kansas City v. Tampa Bay - Pick and Write-Up
-6.2 units on sides in the playoffs
I think the value is with Kansas City -3 -117. Risking 4.68 units to win 4.
Tampa Bay beat Green Bay, but they were lucky to win the turnover battle for a second straight week, with Brady being very inconsistent the last 2 weeks. Brady has struggled against every good defense he's faced this year despite the Tampa Bay getting to the super bowl. Against the Saints Brady had less than 50 yards passing near the end of the first half and against the Packers he through 3 interceptions.
The defenses Brady has struggled against going back years have all had great pass rush up the middle. Brady's quick release and movement in the pocket let's him work around edge rush, but consistent pass rush up the middle is what has given him more trouble than other quarterbacks because of his lack of mobility. The Giants interior pass rush in their 2 super bowl wins over him and the Chiefs pass rush against Brady in the earlier matchup gave him problems, the Rams pass rush up the middle with Donald gave Brady a lot of trouble too.
Fournette has been garbage this year, averaging less than 4 yards a carry and dropping numerous balls. Jones is not healthy with the quad injury, and he has been the far better receiver and runner this year for Tampa, he had a solid game against the Chiefs when these teams played earlier this year. Jones will likely play, but he's been limited as a runner since hurting his quad and he has barely even been used in the playoffs as a receiver since dealing with that injury.
The Chiefs have one of the best interior pass rushers in Chris Jones, and they have Frank Clark coming off the edge as well. The Chiefs have 4 solid corner and mathieu, and their secondary is very good as well. Spagnola was the defensive coordinator during the Giants 2 super bowl wins and he's consistently had success against Brady.
The Chiefs did lose their starting pro bowl left tackle Fischer, but he was garbage in the first matchup between these teams this year, and the Chiefs still had no trouble moving the ball. Andy Reid is one of the best at preparing game plans with extra time, and he'll have 2 weeks to game plan for Fischer being out. The Chiefs receiver and Kelce dominated the Tampa Bay secondary in the first matchup, and Mahomes is obviously moves well, so the Chiefs should be able to use quick passing to offset Tampa's pass rush. Tampa Bay also has 2 safeties who are hurt, and Winfield likely won't be healthy even if he plays since he wasn't able to play in the NFC championship game.
Fans should be 50-50 and their should be fewer distractions for the Chiefs not being at home.
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Originally Posted by CJ
