Best bets for UFC 258: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns

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The welterweight title will be on the line Saturday night when reigning champ Kamaru Usman takes on top challenger Gilbert Burns in Las Vegas.


Early prelims are at 6:15 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.


Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Welterweight title fight: Champion Kamaru Usman (-270) vs. No. 2 Gilbert Burns (+220)


Tale Of The Tape

KAMARU USMAN GILBERT BURNS
Last fight weight class Welterweight Welterweight
Age 33 34
Height 72 70
Reach 76 71
Stance Switch Orthodox
Analyzed minutes 208 169
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 5:0 4:4
Distance knockdown rate 2.7% 2.8%
Head jab accuracy 36% 17%
Head power accuracy 34% 30%
Total stand-up strike ratio 1.2 0.9
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 72% 69%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 98%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.73 0.52
Takedown accuracy 47% 37%
Advances per takedown/top control 0.9 1.0
Opponent takedown attempts 17 20
Takedown defense 100% 50%
Share of total ground time in control 100% 84%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.04 0.23
On the traditional tale of the tape, the edge immediately goes to the incumbent champion. Usman has a clear range advantage and is able to switch stances comfortably. And though he has now held the title for nearly two years, he's still in his prime fighting years and is even slightly younger than his challenger. While those factors are favorable for title defenses, it's the performance metrics that are more convincing.


Usman has an edge in nearly every stand-up category. He's busier than Burns, while also maintaining better accuracy and defense. That suggests Usman should get the better of stand-up exchanges, where he is primarily a head-hunter. Burns might utilize more leg kicks -- and on paper his knockdown rate is a decimal point higher than Usman's -- but neither of these are likely to be game-changers. Even in the clinch, Usman will have a positional advantage, as he often uses the fence to stifle opponents and to set up take-downs



The ground game opens an opportunity for Burns, albeit a small one. Usman has been perfect on the mat so far, leveraging his wrestling base often enough to spend over a third of all Octagon time controlling opponents on the mat. He has never been taken down or even swept for position in a scramble. That level of control will be critical because Burns is a decorated competitive grappler as well, and most of his wins have come by submission. But getting positional control on Usman could be nearly impossible. That means Burns would have to catch a submission from guard or during transition. With each passing round, that will become less likely.


Burns has been impressive in his surge towards a title shot. But he's facing a more well-rounded MMA fighter in Usman, one that we haven't yet seen begin to fade from his best. Until Usman begins to struggle with injuries or conditioning or faces a truly differentiated striking threat, he'll continue to be a favorite in any matchup, even at the highest level.


E+ recommends: Money line play on Usman. He can be combined in two-leg parlays for a near even return. Fight starts Round 3 for other parlays.
Best bets elsewhere on the card

After two COVID-related rebookings, Ricky Simon (-260) is finally going to face Brian Kelleher (+210). Simon is the longer and younger fighter, but Kelleher is more experienced and has faced more bigger names more often. Kelleher is busier and more accurate with his hands, but he also leaves himself open on defense. Simon gets a slight edge in power, but the overall stand-up game is close.


The bigger difference is on the mat, where Simon prefers to spend more of his time. He has been in positional control 92% of his ground fighting minutes, well ahead of Kelleher. We could very well end up seeing a back-and-forth grappling contest, but so far the numbers favor Simon there.




The only caveat in the numbers is that Simon is moving up a division. But Kelleher previously competed at bantamweight, so there isn't a size disadvantage for Simon. Perhaps the extra weight (or less of a weight cut) will allow Simon to utilize his wrestling even better.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Simon.


The co-main event features two ranked women's flyweights, Alexa Grasso (-150) and Maycee Barber (+125). Neither has been especially dominant on the mat, but both prefer to stand and trade. Should this become a distance-striking contest, they show very similar rates of output, accuracy and defense. That leaves us with only a slight lean on a slight favorite. It could be a scorecard tossup, so the better angle is to take the over.


E+ recommends: Fight goes the distance at around -250 for parlays.