PGA Tour golf best bets: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ⛳
PGA Tour golf best bets: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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The PGA Tour heads to California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Defending champion Nick Taylor won last year's event by four shots (19-under).
The field will be without world No. 1 Dustin Johnson, who withdrew Monday following his victory at the Saudi International.
So which players are the favorites, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Joe Fortenbaugh, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted. Bets to win
Marks: Cantlay is a Cali guy who loves this track (T-11 last year). He plays well in windy conditions, putts well on poa annua and is one of the best iron players on tour, which is the most important metric this week. Cantlay ranks 20th in strokes gained tee to green, fifth in scrambling and 38th in putting this season.
Bearman: If you are paying attention to just the PGA Tour, you probably have missed how great Casey has been playing. Casey, the runner-up at Pebble in 2019, won at Dubai two weeks ago (his 15th career European Tour win) and followed it up with a 12th-place finish at the Saudi International last week with all four rounds in the 60s. Before his travels to the Middle East, Casey finished T-8 at Torrey Pines. Now he's back stateside and ready to continue his hot streak. Casey led after 36 and 54 holes in 2019 but couldn't keep up with the Phil Mickelson Sunday express and finished three shots back. If he keeps up the form from overseas, he can take home the hardware this week.
Fallica: Remember him? His world golf ranking might read 103, but his recent form suggests he's rounding into the form we remember in 2018-19 when he won the Quickens Loan, The Open, Bay Hill and a Ryder Cup while nearly adding a green jacket to his resume. It was almost like that final round at Augusta sent his form into a near two-year slump. He missed the cut at the Masters, but since then finished eighth at the AMEX and 10th at Torrey Pines. His stats suggest he's here to stay and is ready to win again, as he's sixth in shots gained tee to green and 17th in total strokes gained. He has relocated his family to California, and it appears he's on the brink of having it all coming together. Molinari was 16th here in the 2019 U.S. Open, so despite this being his first time in this event, he is familiar with Pebble.
Bearman: I'll preface this by saying Day's recent form is not good. He missed the cut this past weekend in Scottsdale and the weekend before at the Farmers Insurance. But that's why you are getting 28-1 for a 12-time tour winner who has finished in the top 5 at Pebble in each of the last four years and is a perfect 11-for-11 making the cut here. Day finished runner-up here in 2018 and has nine top-15 finishes overall at the event. His form wasn't great last year ahead of Pebble either, and he finished fourth despite a 75 on Sunday. Day is beyond due at Pebble, which would be a fitting place for his first win since 2018. When Day is on, there aren't many better than him, especially with the iron play. If not comfortable due to recent form, a top 20 should be safe at a course he knows very well.
Bearman: If looking for a golfer who quietly had a good week last week and has a terrific track record on the Monterey Peninsula, take a stab at Streelman. Streelman has finished in the top 20 in each of the last five appearances here, including a runner-up finish last year, his third consecutive top-7 finish at the event. All four of Streelman's rounds last week were in the 60s, ending in a T-22 finish. He is currently 14th in greens in regulation and 51st in driving accuracy, two key stats this week at Pebble, where accuracy on approach is more important than length. At 35-1 (was 40-1 earlier in the week), he isn't among the top couple of tiers and a is little under the radar for how well he has played at this event.
Fortenbaugh: Johnson's withdrawal combined with the utter lack of top-10 firepower at this year's trip to Pebble Beach means it's time to take some shots down the field. Streelman checks a ton of boxes and is hard to dismiss at a price of 35-1. Five consecutive top-20 finishes and four career top-10s in this event speaks volumes as to how the 42-year-old feels about the course, and when you factor in how important it is to hit greens in this event, as well as the fact that Streelman ranks 14th on tour in greens in regulation, well, again, you can't help but salivate over this price to win. Streelman finished second here last year, has finished T-7 or better in each of his last three trips to Pebble and T-17 or better in each of his last five visits. The Duke product is in strong form as of late (T-22 at the WMO last weekend), and at +135 or better to finish in the top 20, I'm in on this bet. Other bets
Zalatoris top-5 finish (+400); Zalatoris (+100) over Casey
Marks: I wasn't kidding when I told you Zalatoris will be an ATM for gamblers this season. He is one of the best ball-strikers on tour, ranking fourth in strokes gained tee to green and on approach, 43rd greens in regulation, is 26th in scrambling and putts well on poa annua. Cantlay top-10 finish (+100)
Fallica: With DJ out of the field, Cantlay inherits the role of favorite. I'm not backing him to win, but I do think even money on a top-10 finish is worth a shot. He was 11th here last year and comes in off a runner-up finish at the AMEX. Casey top-10 finish (+150)
Fallica: He'll take a lot of money to win, as he posted consecutive top 10s here in 2018 and 2019 and recently won in Dubai. He can win, but the lack of strength of this field makes his win price too short in my eyes, and I'll limit my investment on Casey to the top 10 ranks.
Day top-10 finish (+200); Day (-118) over Jordan Spieth
Marks: Day's track record at Pebble is undeniable: 11 starts, seven top-10 finishes and top-5s in four straight years. He putts better on poa annua than bermuda. He is looking for his first win at this event, but he finished runner-up in 2018.
Bearman: I played Homa over Adam Long last week in a head-to-head at the WMPO and it was over before the weekend. Homa went to school down the road at Cal-Berkeley and has finished T-14 and T-10 in his the last two appearances.
Fallica: Jones was fifth here last year and has two other top-11 finishes since 2015. He hasn't missed a cut since early October, so you can pretty much assume he'll be around for the weekend. He's coming off four rounds in the 60s in Phoenix and is one of the better putters on tour. Better than 5-1 for a top 10 is attractive to me. Streelman top-20 finish (+175)
Marks: This track is a perfect fit for Streelman, who has five top-20 finishes here, has never finished worse than T-17 and was the bridesmaid last year. Streelman ranks 57th in strokes gained tee to green, 56th on approach, fifth in driving accuracy and 14th in green in regulation this season.
Fallica: Piercy has posted top-20 finishes at Pebble each of the last three years, but his form hasn't been great since the calendar flipped to 2021 and he has fallen outside the top 150 in the world golf rankings. However, his fall form wasn't terrible and the fact that he has played well here makes him a nice top-20 play at 4-1. Harry Higgs top-20 finish (+400)
Fallica: Higgs posted a top 20 here last year and it could have been better, if not for a 72-73 weekend. He missed the cut last week after (an opening-round 75 did him in), but his second-round 68 should at least have his mind in a better spot.
Fallica: Like Piercy, Hadley's form isn't great right now and his world ranking has plummeted to 260. However, he finished ninth when the 2019 U.S. Open was held at Pebble and has three other top 20s and a top 10 here since 2014. At 7-1, I'll take my chances his comfort level here in a softish field results in a top-20 finish. Akshay Bhatia top-30 finish (+400 at DraftKings)
Marks: Bhatia is having a sneaky great season. His game fits this tournament extremely well. Bhatia ranks 15th in strokes gained tee to green, 26th in greens in regulation and 28th in approach this season.
Doug Ghim top-40 finish (+100 at DK); Ghim (-106 at DK) over Peter Malanti
Marks: Ghim is another golfer that comes in to Monterey hot. He ranks 40th in strokes gained tee to green, T-28th in greens in regulation, 25th in approach, 37th in driving accuracy and T-38th in putting this season.
Marks: NeSmith has had a great season so far and is another whose metrics scream success on this track. NeSmith ranks 32nd in strokes gained tee to green, 49th in driving accuracy, third in greens in regulation and 12th in approach this season.
Fortenbaugh: Fowler hasn't played in this event since he missed the cut here in 2012, but he did finish T-43 when the U.S. Open visited the Monterey Peninsula in 2019. As for current events, the 32-year-old has missed the cut in two of his last four starts, which includes last weekend's Waste Management Open. Conversely, Homa has been playing some very consistent golf since the Masters, with four consecutive made cuts, three of which featured a finish of T-21 or better. But the best part about this wager is Homa's love for Pebble, where he finished T-10 in 2019 and T-14 last year. The Cal produce should thrive this weekend.
Homa (-105) over Fowler; Homa (+188) in 3-ball vs. Molinari and Sam Burns
Bearman: Books are going to continue to have Fowler as a favorite against golfers playing better than him, and I am going to continue taking advantage of it. I mentioned above that Homa is a local product and has played well at Pebble the last two years. Fowler hasn't played this event in almost a decade, last teeing it up in a missed cut in 2012. And you can't rely on Fowler's current form either, as he missed the cut last week and hasn't finished in the top 20 since Memphis in early August -- six months ago. You are getting the better price and, currently, the better golfer here. I also like the price in the 3-ball matchup, as Homa is a slight underdog to Molinari and Burns.
Casey (-125) over Zalatoris
Bearman: I mentioned above how much I like Casey this week. I also like this matchup. Nothing wrong with Zalatoris, who has been absolute money for those backing him in recent weeks. But he has only played this event once, finishing T-68 back in 2018. With a small price to lay, I am taking the seasoned vet with lots of experience here over the young Zalatoris.
Casey or Streelman to win (+1100)
Bearman: I like them both this week, so why not play the double chance? Either one brings home the trophy and it gets 11 times your money.
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PGA Tour golf best bets: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ⛳
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