PGA Tour golf best bets: Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines ⛳
PGA Tour golf best bets: Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines
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The PGA Tour shifts over to La Jolla, California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.
Defending champion Marc Leishman shot 7-under in the final round last year to beat Jon Rahm by one stroke.
So which players are the favorites, who offers good odds and what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Doug Kezirian and Joe Fortenbaugh, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted. Bets to win
Marks: McIlroy is coming off a nice showing in Dubai last week, finishing third at Abu Dhabi. Weather conditions will not be pleasant the first two days at Torrey Pines, but that rarely affects Rory. He has top-5 finishes in both of his trips here. Statistically, he has the game in his bag to win here; he is second in driving distance, 30th in strokes game tee to green this season and is one of the top putters on poa annua.
Bearman: English quietly has had one of the strongest seasons so far in 2020-21. He started off the fall with a fourth-place finish at the rescheduled U.S. Open, had a 10th-place finish at Shadow Creek and has had three more top-6 finishes since, including a win at the Sentry in Hawaii. English has had some success at Torrey, finishing T-8 in 2018 and losing in a playoff in 2015 while making the cut in eight of the last nine appearances. Torrey Pines is long and narrow, making long and accurate drives an important metric, and English is 38th in shots gained tee to green. He's also 19th in strokes gained putting and 25th putting inside of 10 feet, both important with the poa greens. Expect English to continue his good play and be in contention of his second victory in the calendar year.
Fallica: Reed might be flying a little under the radar this week, given the presence of Rory and Rahm. He plays the par-4s great -- and that's something one needs to do here -- and the potential "grind it out" type of weather that is forecast for Thursday and Friday could work to his advantage as well. Reed hasn't shot worse than 70 in the last two years here en route to T-6 and T-13 finishes. At minimum, he's a great play for the top 10, and at best he's a threat to win at what I think is a good price.
Fallica: Scheffler was a super trendy pick last week, then went out and missed the cut. So this is a perfect time to hop on and back him at a better price than what he ha been. Scheffler tied Reed last year for fifth on tour in par-4 scoring, and it's hard to ignore his run to end 2020 where he finished top 5 in the PGA, Northern Trust and Tour Championship.
Kezirian: Wolff dropped two spots in the FedEx Cup rankings last week after an underwhelming T-40 finish at The AMX, but he has a chance to regain form on a course that should benefit his style of play. The Torrey Pines South Course is the longest on the golf calendar at roughly 7,800 yards, and Wolff ranks ninth in driving distance. Add to that his ranking of seventh in strokes gained approaching the green, and the American seems to be in store for a nice rebound performance this weekend. Wolff only has one PGA Tour victory, and unsurprisingly it came at TPC Twin Cities, a near-7,500-yard course, which shows his ability to perform at long distances. He could in the mix for a second win. Adam Scott 35-1
Kezirian: Scott will get his first crack at the newly-renovated Torrey Pines South Course and look to build off his second-place finish here in 2019. He last finished in the top 20 nearly a year ago, but I think this situation shapes up well. At 40 years old, the Aussie still has power, ranking 14th in driving distance and actually driving on average four yards longer than he did last year. His overall performance this season though has not fared as well, as he has lost about 0.4 strokes from last season. But as a PGA Tour veteran and someone who has had success at this course, the value is too enticing to pass up.
Kezirian: Woodland has been inconsistent since winning the 2019 U.S. Open. He has recorded only six top-10 finishes since that weekend with a bevy of poor performances that saw him either cut or finish outside the top 50. Woodland was cut from last year's Farmers Insurance Open after shooting 75-70 in the first two rounds. However, that's why we're catching good odds. On the flip side, Woodland had been battling a torn labrum in his left hip but now says he feels much better. Does that mean he's ready to win a tourney? Doubtful. But he played well last week and is clearly in a better place physically and mentally, so I have to grab the long odds.
Kezirian: After missing the cut four straight times, List got back on track last week at The AMX, with a T-21 at 11-under. The PGA Tour veteran is ranked 10th in strokes gained off the tee, but his driving accuracy sits at just under 55%, which can prove costly on the narrow fairways at Torrey Pines South. However, I will take a shot at these huge odds with a guy who ranks 11th in driving distance. Other bets
Rahm top-5 finish (+163); play in straight finishes
Bearman: There isn't much value in picking the favorite at +600/+700 to win a PGA Tour event with 150-plus players, although Rahm has as good of a chance to win as anyone here. He finished runner-up last year to Leishman, T-5 in 2019 and won here in 2017. In 16 rounds in La Jolla, Rahm has scored in the 60s nine times and held an end-of-round lead three times. Since there isn't much value on him to win, I am going to play him to finish in the top 5 again at close to 2-1 and, borrowing a page from Anita's book, pair him up with a couple of different golfers such as McIlroy (75-1), Schauffele (95-1) and English (165-1 each way) for straight finish props.
Finau top-5 finish (+450)
Marks: Finau has finished inside the top 25 in all six trips to Torrey Pines. His form is on point and he heads into the weekend ranked 18th in strokes gained tee to green and 27th in driving distance this season. Finau putts better on poa annua, and we could see an improvement in his putting on the South Course.
McIlroy top-10 finish (-110)
Fallica: Rory is an obvious pick this week, given his solid play last week overseas and his history at Torrey -- T-3 and T-5 the last two years with one bad round on Thursday or Friday and rounds of 67-69-69-69 on the weekend. So maybe there's a little jet lag early in week and that leads to a similar path. So I'll back him in the top-10 market, and if there's a decent in-play price available, I might consider a win bet.
Rahm top-10 finish (-137)
Fallica: Second, T-5, T-29 (with a 75-77 weekend), win; that is how Rahm's course history here reads. It's hard to accept +600 or +700 in the win market, in my opinion, but his odds to finish in the top 10 are very appealing. And if his price is appealing on the weekend, that's when I would consider hopping in.
Finau top-10 finish (+188)
Fallica: Everyone had their fun with "Sunday Finau" last week, but it's hard not to consider him for another top 10 this week, given he's gone T-6, T-13, T-6, T-4 the last four years here. Betting Finau in the non-win markets is the way to go.
English top-10 finish (+240); Top-20 finish (+110)
Fallica: English has eight top 10s and 15 top 20s in his last 21 events. His play has made him a popular pick to win again this week, but I'll land on the safer side here, playing him in the top 10 and 20 markets.
Fallica: A Sunday 76 dropped Hovland to the bottom of the leaderboard at Kapalua, and he missed the cut here as an amateur in 2019. But that's of no concern to me. Hovland's form prior to Hawaii was just fine and he's a better, more experienced player now than in 2019. And he also doesn't have to win! Finish top 10 and we're good.
Marks: I will be a fan of Zalatoris all season, so get used to seeing his name in this column. He dominated the Korn Ferry Tour last season, and I expect him to take the PGA Tour by storm, starting this weekend on the left coast. Zalatoris ranks fourth in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in driving distance and 27th in scrambling from the rough this season.
Finau top-20 finish (-125); first-round leader (33-1 at DK)
Bearman: I have stated in this very column that I refuse to pick Finau to win any event until he wins one that is not a B-field event against a WGC/major. His one win was Puerto Rico back in 2016, and he needs to prove to me he can win before I put money on him to hold a trophy. That being said, I have absolutely no issue picking him to get a top 20, since he does that almost every week. Finau's MO has been to be near the leaderboard after Friday and fade during the weekend. There are plenty of reasons to expect him to contend again this week, as he has played very well at Torrey Pines, with top-25 finishes in all six appearances. That includes three top-6 finishes, including in 2018, where he held the first-round lead and was third after Friday before, you guessed it, fading to a T-6 with weekend 73s. Finau has finished in the top 25 in all but three tournaments dating back to July, so I am going to be firing on a top 20 and also playing him to hold the lead after Thursday's first round.
English top-20 finish (+110)
Marks: English won just three weeks ago and has had a lot of success on this track, making the cut in seven of his eight starts at Torrey Pines, along with three top 15 finishes. He ranks T-25 in par-4 efficiency, which is huge considering there are seven long par-4s of 450 yards (and possibly more depending on the setup). Wolff top-20 finish (+150); Wolff (-143 at DK) over Jason Kokrak
Marks: Last year was Wolff's first trip to Torrey Pines. He posted a horrible first round but rebounded to finish T-21. Wolff can drive the ball a mile, and that is what you need to win here. This Cali kid ranks ninth in driving distance and is T-48 in par 4-efficiency.
Kokrak top-20 finish (+250)
Fallica: Kokrak was playing some of the best golf in his career late in 2020 and was right there in the top-20 market the last two years (T-21, T-20). I'll back him to post another top 20 here.
Scott top-30 finish (+100 at DK)
Marks: Scott was the bridesmaid at the Farmer's in 2019. He obviously has the game to finish in the top 30 and possibly even better than that. Scott is ranked 14th in driving distance, third in par-4 efficiency and putts well on poa annua.
Marks: Watson has six wins on poa annua greens, and he will be putting on poa for three of his four rounds, assuming he makes it past Friday. Watson loves playing in California, and the South Course is one of his favorites on tour. Watson ranks second in strokes gained tee to green and 24th in driving distance this season.
Marks: Snedeker is another golfer who thrives on this track. He is one of the best putters on poa annua and is ranked 26th in driving accuracy, which is needed on the South Course's tight fairways.
Marks: Huh is a sneaky good play this week and could finish as high as top 20. He has yet to miss a cut since returning from a bout with COVID-19. In nine trips to Torrey Pines, Huh has made the cut eight times. Huh enters this weekend ranked 21st in strokes gained tee to green, 22nd in driving accuracy, and T-14 in scrambling from the rough this season.
Marks: I love the odds for Clark this week. He is fourth in driving distance, T-39 in scrambling from the rough this season and is an excellent putter. Cracking the top 40 should be a walk in the park. Hovland (+100 at DK) over Hideki Matsuyama
Fallica: Matsuyama has finished outside the top 30 four of the last six years here and has been a horror show on the greens this year (210th in strokes gained putting). Hovland has struggled on the greens too, but right now I like where his game is - both performance-wise and mentally -- compared to Matsuyama's.
Fortenbaugh: Finau's inability to bring down the curtain on Sundays is worthy of mention, but so is the fact that he's +110 against a golfer who has missed the cut in four of his five career starts at Torrey Pines. Schauffele checks all the boxes of a golfer who should enjoy an abundance of success in this event, from driving distance to strokes gained tee to green. Yet, the La Jolla native has posted just one sub-70 round in 12 trips around this property. Meanwhile, Finau has finished T-24 or better in all six of his starts at the Farmers, finishing T-6 or better in three of the last four years. If these golfers were priced evenly I might pass, but at plus money I'm all over Finau in this spot.
Fortenbaugh: Koepka has played twice since November's Masters, missing the cut at both the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December and last weekend's AMX in La Quinta. Perhaps some of his recent shortcomings can be attributed to the lack of a swing coach following the dismissal of Claude Harmon III in November, who was with the Florida State alum through all four of his major championship victories. Throw in his lack of success in two starts at Torrey Pines (T-41 in 2015, ** in 2017) and it's easy to see why I'm grabbing the plus money with Smith, who has finished T-24 or better in six of his last seven starts on tour, with two top-20s in his last three trips to the Farmers.
Fallica: This is more a play against Koepka than a full backing of Smith, although Smith has two top 20s in the last three years here. Koepka hasn't played Torrey competitively on tour since 2017, and I think this is more of a scouting trip for the U.S. Open this June. Results don't necessarily matter; course information does. Koepka also has some off-the-course things to work through in the coaching landscape.
Fortenbaugh: Davis currently ranks 10th on tour in driving distance and has made the cut in each of his three visits to Torrey Pines. The 25-year-old Aussie is also showing great form early in the season, finishing third at The AMX last weekend and 31st at the Sony Open two weeks ago. Take note that he's shown improvement in each start at the Farmers, going from T-58 (+3) in 2018 to T-57 (-3) in 2019 to T-36 (-4) last year. Davis is definitely trending in the right direction.
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PGA Tour golf best bets: Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines ⛳
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