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Best bets for UFC 257: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2 👊
Best bets for UFC 257: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2
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Conor McGregor makes his dramatic return (again), but this time it's to take a rematch against a previously defeated opponent, without access to a viable title shot. In his 2014 fight against Dustin Poirier, McGregor closed as a roughly 3-to-1 favorite -- which is where he hovers during this current fight week -- despite having opened at a far more affordable number. This scenario is nearly identical to McGregor's last fight a year ago, where he knocked out Donald Cerrone in a first-round stunner. But where Cowboy Cerrone was already into a late career slide, Poirier has continued to impress and is getting better and better. So, the odds here might look familiar, but the trajectories of the matchup are very different.
Early prelims are at 6:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Lightweight main event: No. 4 Conor McGregor (-330) vs. No. 2 Dustin Poirier (+260)
Tale Of The TapeWhenever there's an inflated betting favorite, the simple question is whether he is worth it. Either we see clear paths to victory for the favorite, without significant risks, or there's potential value betting against the hype.
DUSTIN POIRIER CONOR MCGREGOR Last fight weight class Lightweight Welterweight Age 32 32 Height 69 69 Reach 72 74 Stance Southpaw Southpaw Analyzed minutes 267 100 Stand-up striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 11:2 13:0 Distance knockdown rate 1.7% 5.8% Head jab accuracy 40% 28% Head power accuracy 44% 43% Total stand-up strike ratio 1.1 1.2 Striking defense Total head strike defense 67% 69% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.40 0.11 Takedown accuracy 36% 63% Advances per takedown/top control 0.5 1.3 Opponent takedown attempts 66 30 Takedown defense 61% 70% Share of total ground time in control 52% 42% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.44 0.00
Historically, McGregor has deliberately forced shootouts on the feet (with the notable exception of his fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov). And early in the fight when McGregor is freshest, these two are likely to test their hands. And that's where it's hard to differentiate the two. They have nearly identical striking accuracy and defense. Poirier averages a slightly busier pace of strikes, but McGregor does a better job of outworking opponents. And while both men have racked up knockdowns in their UFC careers (24 total between them), McGregor's per-strike knockdown rate is probably the biggest single differentiator on the feet. Stylistically, McGregor uses a more diverse mix of kicks compared to Poirier's boxing-centric attack, but both men have also evolved in their striking over time.
The knockout threat from McGregor will be the story. Either history repeats itself, or Poirier's striking improvement makes the duel more competitive. Given Poirier's recent performances against elite strikers, McGregor cannot enter a shootout lightly.
The ground game is a wild card. Neither could withstand the grappling of the greatest lightweight of all time (Nurmagomedov). But despite both getting similarly dominated, there's still a difference in grappling skills between Poirier and McGregor that could come into play. Poirier is much more likely to initiate contact, and should he get the fight down, he'll be looking to test McGregor's submission defense. And even if he doesn't get a lock, Poirier could use wrestling to edge a few rounds on the cards.
Ultimately, this matchup falls into a value-play bucket. McGregor would be the lean at more reasonable odds, but given the massive inflation, a small stab at Poirier to outperform their first pairing becomes the final recommendation.
E+ recommends: Small money-line lean on Poirier if his price remains well above +200; over 1.5 rounds.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
Deep on the preliminary card, there's a likely knockout brewing. Khalil Rountree Jr. (-330) is already a heavy favorite over Marcin Prachnio (+260), and the matchup pairs the hardest-hitting fighter on the card against the one with the worst chin rating.
Prachnio is a trained striker, but against UFC talent he has been finished by strikes in each of his three appearances. Rountree isn't invincible, but he'll certainly test his standup and trade leather with Prachnio. Neither man has ever attempted a takedown. There is a lot of power in this light heavyweight pairing, and given that they will stand in the pocket, it should only end violently.
E+ recommends: Fight does not go the distance for parlays; prop play on Rountree by TKO.
If you're hunting for an upset, consider the submission ace, Antonio Carlos Junior (+115). He's a mild underdog to veteran Brad Tavares (-135), but this is probably the biggest submission threat Tavares has ever faced.
E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Junior at plus money.
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Originally Posted by BIGDAY
