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NFL playoffs 2020: Schedule, previews for Buccaneers-Packers, Bills-Chiefs conference championships



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The most unusual season in NFL history is down to its final three playoff games: the NFC Championship Game, the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl LV. First up are next Sunday's conference title matchups.


The first features two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. The other? We don't know whether the Chiefs will have Patrick Mahomes or be forced to start backup Chad Henne against the Bills' Josh Allen. Indeed, we might not know until next weekend if Mahomes will be cleared to play after suffering a concussion on Sunday. But we should never allow uncertainty to obstruct the hype. What follows is our first top-line look at the NFL's championship weekend.


Kevin Seifert will provide matchup previews and X factors, including each team's path to the Super Bowl. Dan Graziano will then answer one big question about each team still chasing the Super Bowl and the looming conference championship matchups. Let's jump in.


Note: Odds and game lines are via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Predictions are from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
NFC


(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1) Green Bay Packers

3:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

Opening line: Packers -3.5 (52)

FPI projection: Packers (53.2%) by 1

What to watch for: This could be the final matchup between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The Buccaneers and Packers won't play during the 2021 regular season, which means the only way that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will face off next season is in the playoffs. After that, Brady will be 44 and his two-year contract with the Buccaneers will expire. One way or the other, however, the NFL is assured that one of the best quarterbacks in league history will appear in Super Bowl LV.


Why the Buccaneers will win: The Buccaneers had the NFL's top rushing defense during the regular season, holding opponents to 80.6 rushing yards per game. You might not think that stopping the run is the key to beating the Packers, and it won't do it alone. But remember: The Packers beat the Rams on Saturday with 188 rushing yards, their most in a playoff game since Rodgers became their starter. Making the Packers one-dimensional on offense, even if that one dimension is the likely NFL MVP, puts you on the road to pulling off an upset. In the teams' regular-season matchup, won 38-10 by the Buccaneers, Packers tailback Aaron Jones managed just 15 yards on 10 carries.

Why the Packers will win: The Packers have never lost an NFC Championship Game at home since Rodgers became their starter. But they've also never played an NFC Championship Game at home since Rodgers became their starter. They've all been on the road.
But seriously. Is there anyone in the Buccaneers' defensive secondary that you would trust to shut down the Rodgers-Davante Adams connection? The Packers showed Saturday that they'll look elsewhere when Adams is locked in coverage with an elite cornerback such as Jalen Ramsey, but the Buccaneers have no such defender.

X factor: Buccaneers linebacker Devin White. Back from the COVID-19 list, White had one of the biggest plays in Sunday's victory over the Saints. His interception of Saints quarterback Drew Brees set up the Buccaneers for the score that gave them a late, 10-point lead. Be it in pass defense or as a pass-rusher or just as an all-around, sideline-to-sideline defender, White is the kind of player who could upend the Packers' offensive machine. The Buccaneers aren't likely to be able to keep coverage on Adams, but if White can wreak havoc in the pocket, it might not matter.



Stat to know: This matchup will provide the oldest combined starting quarterback age in a conference championship game. The ages of Rodgers and Brady will total 80 years and 227 days.

AFC


(2) Buffalo Bills at (1) Kansas City Chiefs

6:40 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Opening line: Chiefs -3.5 (50)

FPI projection: Bills (53.5%) by 1 (with Mahomes at 50-50 to play*)

What to watch for: We've spent so much time talking about COVID-19 protocols in 2020 that we forgot the NFL's original protocol: concussions. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has a week to pass through all the steps required for a return to play. The list includes clearance from an independent neurologist. We should prepare for the possibility that backup quarterback Chad Henne will make his first career playoff start at the age of 35.

Why the Bills will win: It would sure help Buffalo if Mahomes doesn't play, and not just for the obvious reasons. In the teams' regular-season matchup, a 26-17 Chiefs victory, the Bills were determined not to let Mahomes get downfield. He threw for 225 yards, his second-lowest total in a game this season, but that was in part because the Bills were inviting the Chiefs to run. They did just that, accumulating 245 rushing yards as a team in the game. Without Mahomes, the Bills would not have to make that choice.



If Mahomes does play, the Bills are one of the few teams that can match the Chiefs score for score. The Bills are averaging 34.7 points per game since Week 9 of the regular season, and they're so confident in quarterback Josh Allen right now that they called for a pass on their first 13 plays of Saturday's victory over the Ravens.

Why the Chiefs will win: The Chiefs will win by getting Mahomes back. That's not to be glib or to suggest that they have any control over the situation. If he plays, the Chiefs would be a threat to score on every play.

If not? It's tough to make a straight-faced argument. Should the Chiefs win without Mahomes, it will likely be because coach Andy Reid overhauled their offense in way that not only accounted for enough points but also limited the Bills' possessions. Maybe it's using Tyreek Hill in the Wildcat. Perhaps it's a couple of onside kicks from the trick book of special-teams coordinator Dave Toub. Either way, they'll need to add a few moves to the playbook -- and then empty it.

X factor: Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu. Whether or not they have Mahomes in the lineup, the Chiefs don't want to be in a shootout with the Bills' offense. Of all the Chiefs' defensive players, Mathieu can do more to avoid that fate. He might be the last line of defense on a downfield pass to wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and Mathieu is the most likely to be in position to create a game-altering takeaway.

Stat to know: The Chiefs will host a conference championship game for the third straight season, tying the 2002-04 Eagles for the longest streak since the merger. Those Philadelphia teams also were coached by Reid. The Bills, meanwhile, are in the conference championship game for the first time since the 1993 season. Their 26-season gap between conference title games is the longest by any team to have reached it multiple times since the formation of the round in 1970.

*The AFC Championship Game FPI projection is based on a 50-50 chance that Mahomes plays. The Chiefs have a 61% chance to win with Mahomes at QB and a 32% chance with Henne at QB.



Graziano's big questions for the conference championships


Is Tom Brady really going to pull this off?

The Bucs slayed their personal dragon on Sunday, beating the division rival Saints for the first time in three tries this season to advance to a matchup with Rodgers and the Packers next Sunday at Lambeau Field. That puts Brady one game away from advancing to his -- this can't be right -- 10th Super Bowl. The Bucs signed Brady in the biggest move of the 2020 offseason with the hope that he'd turn them into a title contender, and the fact that they're still playing means it worked.

The Saints' defense, overall, did a decent job against Brady on Sunday. But New Orleans let Tampa Bay hang around by turning the ball over three times in its own territory. All three of the Bucs' touchdowns came off of turnovers, and with the help of his run game, Brady did just enough to advance his team in the playoffs, as he has so many times before (albeit with a different franchise).
So here is Brady, in his 14th conference title game, against Rodgers (in his fifth). Rodgers has the better team and comes in playing better (than anyone, actually). But Rodgers has only won one of his previous four conference championship games, whereas Brady has won nine of his previous 13. Four of the past five NFC Championship Games have been blowouts won by the home team. Even though the Buccaneers crushed the Packers 38-10 in a Week 6 game that turned on an interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Packers make it five out of six.

But if they don't -- if the Packers make the mistake of letting Brady and the Bucs hang around into a close fourth quarter -- you wonder if all of Brady's experience in making playoff magic might make a difference.

Can the Packers' offensive line keep it up without David Bakhtiari?

The Packers' line had the league's best pass block win rate and run block win rate this season, but they're playing without their All-Pro left tackle, after Bakhtiari suffered a season-ending injury in practice a few weeks back. It hasn't been a detriment so far. Rodgers has been sacked just once in two games since the Bakhtiari injury, and Green Bay ran for 188 yards against the Rams' top-ranked defense in Saturday's divisional-round victory. Rodgers called the line's performance "stellar" after the game, and it seems clear he is just as comfortable as his outstanding team has allowed him to be all season.



Rodgers is performing at a high level in an offense that is executing with far more precision than it was a year ago. Packers coach Matt LaFleur didn't sugarcoat the loss of Bakhtiari when I asked him about it before Saturday's game, but he said he thought his linemen had enough versatility that they would be able to patch it together. Keeping the Rams' defensive front off of Rodgers was evidence that he is correct.

Things don't get a lot easier with Tampa Bay and its imposing defensive front coming to town on Sunday. But Green Bay's offense is playing with a high level of confidence right now. That combined with having the NFC Championship Game at home this time around makes the Packers feel it'll be a different story than it was when the 49ers rolled past them in this round last season. The Pack would be better off with Bakhtiari, no doubt, but it's possible a Green Bay team that so many people thought wouldn't be good enough to get Rodgers back to the Super Bowl is deep enough to do just that.

Will the Bills' explosive offense return?

It's pretty tough to find much wrong with the Bills right now, so we're nitpicking. But this is a team that averaged 35 points over its final nine regular-season games, and it has scored just two offensive touchdowns in its past six quarters. Yes, playoff football is tougher. Yes, the Colts and Ravens have tough defenses. And yes, absolutely, Buffalo, your team is deep and resilient and can win in a number of different ways. Please don't throw me through a table for doubting your team's capabilities.

But assuming Mahomes gets through the concussion protocol and is cleared to play on Sunday, the Bills aren't going to beat the Chiefs with 17 points. Allen has answered every question that has been asked of him this season, so it would be no surprise to see him and Diggs deliver a big game and hang with Kansas City in a track meet. We just haven't seen it yet in the playoffs.



These teams have played already this season, and the Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17 in Week 6. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, teams that beat an opponent in the regular season and then hosted that team in a conference championship that same year are a combined 35-16 since the 1970 merger and 7-2 over the past 10 seasons. So history doesn't favor Buffalo here. But Week 6 was a long time ago. The only game the Bills have dropped since then was the DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary loss in Arizona. Of course, the only game the Chiefs have lost since then was the

The Bills have every reason to believe they're the best team in the AFC. Well, every reason but one: They haven't beaten the defending champs yet. To do so, they'll need to put points on the board the way they did for the final two months of the regular season.

Can the Chiefs still be the bully?

The Chiefs are 15-2 this season, but the last time they won a game by more than six points was on Nov. 1, when they beat the Jets 35-9. Also-rans like Carolina, Denver and Atlanta all stayed within one possession of Kansas City over the second half. And while they might well have run away from the Browns on Sunday if Mahomes didn't have to leave the game with a concussion, it has still been more than two months since we've see the Chiefs look like oh, my god, the Chiefs for a full game.


Again, this is nitpicking, because the Chiefs have won every game they were trying to win since the Raiders beat them in Week 5, and it's possible that they're just defending Super Bowl champs who know they're better than everyone else and the regular season bored them. In last year's playoffs, the Chiefs were the comeback team that flipped the switch midgame and came back to beat the Texans, Titans and 49ers en route to their championship. This season, it's about whether they can flip the switch mid-month and look like the dominant team we all believed them to be.

We've assumed them to be the favorites all season, but there are reasons it has been 16 years since anyone repeated as Super Bowl champs. It's tough. And Buffalo is the kind of team that just might be able to hold off Kansas City if it gets the lead. It's time for the Chiefs to look like the Chiefs if they want to pull off this repeat.

FPI chances to win the Super Bowl

• Packers: 28.3%
• Buccaneers: 26.4%
• Bills: 23.8%
• Chiefs: 21.5%

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