[LT Profits]

1 NCAA Basketball Pick Thursday

Arizona State +2.5 -108 (Heritage)


YTD: 24-37-2, -16.17

[Zlaniner]

Gonna try NW +6

[spippen]

Good luck on both men

[LT Profits]

Typical of the season I am having that I lose with an underdog in OT.

Granted losing with +2.5 is not as bad as Push I got with +11 in OT earlier in season, but still don't remember winning any OT games this year in college. Thank God for other sports.

[coolguy73739]

Typical of the season I am having that I lose with an underdog in OT.

Granted losing with +2.5 is not as bad as Push I got with +11 in OT earlier in season, but still don't remember winning any OT games this year in college. Thank God for other sports.

LT , with all due respect, you need to overhaul your model and LEARN FROM YOUR LOSSES.. I doubt you tweak your model based on your losses of almost 20 units within a month.. Something is terribly wrong with your model...GOOD LUCK FOR REST OF THE SEASON..

[bballs84]

Arizona state was decimated yesterday.. Remy Martin was attending Gpas funeral, cherry was out plus 2 others.. Bagley wasn’t even supposed to play but gave it a go last second because not enough guys is uniforms.. I Believe the line closed at 5.5..Def a gutsy play

[LT Profits]

LT , with all due respect, you need to overhaul your model and LEARN FROM YOUR LOSSES.. I doubt you tweak your model based on your losses of almost 20 units within a month.. Something is terribly wrong with your model...GOOD LUCK FOR REST OF THE SEASON..

Outside source has my Beat Closing Line Rate at an even 60%, so there has been some bad luck involved. As long as I maintain that BTCL, you would THINK things will turn around.

[LT Profits]

Arizona state was decimated yesterday.. Remy Martin was attending Gpas funeral, cherry was out plus 2 others.. Bagley wasn’t even supposed to play but gave it a go last second because not enough guys is uniforms.. I Believe the line closed at 5.5..Def a gutsy play

Martin was announced out after my play was in, and I bet it pretty late close to 6:00 ET, so announcement was very late.

[coolguy73739]

BEATING THE CLOSING LINE is the BIGGEST SCAM of the century, pure propaganda spread by Bookies for their own benefit..
What matters is how many games you win.. Mostly Lines are fake at 50% probability of winning, so BTCL has no meaning in those games. I hope you understood that by now being on this shit for so many years..
Classic case of today's Colorado State line of -10.5.. Doesn't matter where it closes, they were bound to lose, its so simple once you know how this game is played.. Good Luck..

[LT Profits]

BEATING THE CLOSING LINE is the BIGGEST SCAM of the century, pure propaganda spread by Bookies for their own benefit..
What matters is how many games you win.. Mostly Lines are fake at 50% probability of winning, so BTCL has no meaning in those games. I hope you understood that by now being on this shit for so many years..
Classic case of today's Colorado State line of -10.5.. Doesn't matter where it closes, they were bound to lose, its so simple once you know how this game is played.. Good Luck..

Totally FALSE. BTCL is single most important Metric when evaluating model. There is a reason Books limit/boot players that consistently beat closers even if they don't have the greatest win %. Anyone that maintains a 60% BTCL over the long run should be a winner. Sure , as you alluded to, there are individual games where the line is off, either intentionally or not depending on book's goal, but I am talking about over the long run over all bets.

[coolguy73739]

I can only wish you GOOD LUCK with that fixed Mindset.. No time ..

[veriableodds]

BEATING THE CLOSING LINE is the BIGGEST SCAM of the century, pure propaganda spread by Bookies for their own benefit..
What matters is how many games you win.. Mostly Lines are fake at 50% probability of winning, so BTCL has no meaning in those games. I hope you understood that by now being on this shit for so many years..
Classic case of today's Colorado State line of -10.5.. Doesn't matter where it closes, they were bound to lose, its so simple once you know how this game is played.. Good Luck..

Agree here use to wrack my brain over this, and countless wasted time. Beating a line/or# has nothing to do with the outcome of a game. Its pretty clear all lines are not 50/50

[LT Profits]

I can only wish you GOOD LUCK with that fixed Mindset.. No time ..

That mindset is why I have a winning record during my career at SBR spanning over 14 years with every single play documented for the world to see, so it should not even be an arguable point. Sure there have been some miserable seasons, but still up overall and winning now in all sports (including last completed seasons in MLB and NHL), so I could afford to ride NCAAB out knowing my BTCL is OK.

[LT Profits]

Agree here use to wrack my brain over this, and countless wasted time. Beating a line/or# has nothing to do with the outcome of a game. Its pretty clear all lines are not 50/50

BTCL has nothing to do with outcome of ONE game. BTCL is vital for LONG TERM success, it is virtually impossible to win at betting without getting value on your number. I should add that I am talking about efficient markets and not peripheral shit with small limits.

[coolguy73739]

That mindset is why I have a winning record during my career at SBR spanning over 14 years with every single play documented for the world to see, so it should not even be an arguable point. Sure there have been some miserable seasons, but still up overall and winning now in all sports (including last completed seasons in MLB and NHL), so I could afford to ride NCAAB out knowing my BTCL is OK.

Sorry but I beg to differ.. I have been watching your posts for last 5 years being on this forum.. you are always struggling.. never ever I felt like tailing your posts.. not sure of earlier 9 years.. sorry if you are offended but you are an AVERAGE tipper on this forum is the best I can say about you.. sorry no hard feelings... GL

[coolguy73739]

Agree here use to wrack my brain over this, and countless wasted time. Beating a line/or# has nothing to do with the outcome of a game. Its pretty clear all lines are not 50/50

BEATING THE CLOSING LINE, BUYING HALF POINT or SO CALLED FUCKIN' "HOOK" ALL GIMMICKS in Basketball betting I am referring to..
Do you think half point matters in BB ? Bullshit.. All programed to brainwash Joe bettors.. Winners are winners and losers are losers.. You can win by 20 points or lose by 20, there;s no place for so called HOOK or BTCL.. all gimmicks.. Be sure of your NUMBERS and bet with confidence.. thats the only thing that matters.. 99% of joe bettors are looking for past trends, previous matchup, recent games, all craps and have no meaning.. what matters is TODAY AND HOW YOU CAP YOUR GAME.. GL..

[veriableodds]

BTCL has nothing to do with outcome of ONE game. BTCL is vital for LONG TERM success, it is virtually impossible to win at betting without getting value on your number. I should add that I am talking about efficient markets and not peripheral shit with small limits.

Only picks I make are value, value is the only way to win agree. Overall one can seek value(obtain) value without BTCL,I can pick 10 wagers out and mabye 4 move against, but because of market efficiency(overall) only 3 will move away. Every pick I have is all bias no don't feel like doing a 5 minute write up on it thought(why i picked what i picked)

[veriableodds]

BEATING THE CLOSING LINE, BUYING HALF POINT or SO CALLED FUCKIN' "HOOK" ALL GIMMICKS in Basketball betting I am referring to..
Do you think half point matters in BB ? Bullshit.. All programed to brainwash Joe bettors.. Winners are winners and losers are losers.. You can win by 20 points or lose by 20, there;s no place for so called HOOK or BTCL.. all gimmicks.. Be sure of your NUMBERS and bet with confidence.. thats the only thing that matters.. 99% of joe bettors are looking for past trends, previous matchup, recent games, all craps and have no meaning.. what matters is TODAY AND HOW YOU CAP YOUR GAME.. GL..

true i buy 1/2 points but not often

[LT Profits]

Sorry but I beg to differ.. I have been watching your posts for last 5 years being on this forum.. you are always struggling.. never ever I felt like tailing your posts.. not sure of earlier 9 years.. sorry if you are offended but you are an AVERAGE tipper on this forum is the best I can say about you.. sorry no hard feelings... GL

I am have literally won in every sport over the past year other than NCAAB, so guess you were not paying too much attention. And yes, before your time, I did not have a losing season over my first 3 years at SBR, streak went into the teens in terms of league seasons, was snapped somewhere in the 16-18 season range. Talking about the 6 major North American leagues.

As for the last year up to the second:

Sport	W	L	P	Pct	Units
MLB 2020	65	59	3	52.4%	13.51
NFL 2020	57	51	1	52.8%	3.31
NCAAF 2020	45	30	0	60.0%	13.09
NBA 2020-21	17	9	0	65.4%	7.32
NCAAB 2020-21	24	38	2	38.7%	-17.25
NHL 2019-20	99	95	3	51.0%	21.12
TOTAL	307	282	9	52.1%	+41.10

[LT Profits]

As coolguy said, not enough time, we can spend hours on this topic so let me put this in the simplest bottom-line terms and get on with my life :

If you believe in an efficient market, then BTCL becomes mathematical fact.

If you do NOT believe in an efficient market, then BTCL does not matter,

I am obviously in the first camp for all major markets, believing if you average out all closing lines over time, they will converge toward true lines (50/50) since closing lines have all information baked in.

[pimike]

I am have literally won in every sport over the past year other than NCAAB, so guess you were not paying too much attention. And yes, before your time, I did not have a losing season over my first 3 years at SBR, streak went into the teens in terms of league seasons, was snapped somewhere in the 16-18 season range. Talking about the 6 major North American leagues.

As for the last year up to the second:

Sport	W	L	P	Pct	Units
MLB 2020	65	59	3	52.4%	13.51
NFL 2020	57	51	1	52.8%	3.31
NCAAF 2020	45	30	0	60.0%	13.09
NBA 2020-21	17	9	0	65.4%	7.32
NCAAB 2020-21	24	38	2	38.7%	-17.25
NHL 2019-20	99	95	3	51.0%	21.12
TOTAL	307	282	9	52.1%	+41.10

No need to explain. Most here know your are steady eddy.