[stevenash]

Let's see if I can rebound from that OK nightmare last night.
I'm not big on tracking records and all because by now most of you should know who has a clue and who doesn't.
But for those of you keeping score at home (and I know some of you are) You're pal Nasher is 7-4 in my last 11 ATS.
Not great, but not herpes either.

OK, on to my play.

If this were two service academy teams playing each other I'd steer clear of wagering an over.
Games involving two service academy teams such as Army v. Navy or Army v. Air Force usually wind up with totals in the 30's or less.

Case in point earlier this month.
Army 10 AFA 7
Army 15 Navy 0

However Army's opponent today (West Virginia) is not a service academy, and unlike most service academies West Va. has a 'real' offense (I define a 'real' offense as a team that doesn't pretty much run the ball all the time)

First my nerdy analytics.
West Va. can throw the ball.
277 yards on the average per game says they can pass the ball.

Now I totally respect the defensive metrics Army has (top 5 overall) bear in mind the majority of their schedule is run oriented offenses i.e. Navy so I really don't know how their unit will respond to a bigger program such as the Mountaineers.

Army does generate 28 points a game, it's not like they can't score, and it's not like West Va. has an elite defense that can keep Army in the low teens and stone wall their rush.

And the Mountaineers can score too (take away that turd they just laid against ISU)

OK listen, I'll stop here, you get my point.
"Nash, you think there will be more than 41 points in this game, stop talking already"
lol

Yeah.

Army/West Va. OVER 41
(I'm thinking upper 40's here, low 50's)

not for nothing regarding the side.
Small lean right now towards Army
As a son of 30 year military Navy engineer I know a thing or two about service academy teams.
They don't roll over, those military students play hard from opening whistle to final gun.
They don't quit even if they are down.

I'm Navy, but I think dad will excuse me this one time for rooting Army..

OVER 41 is locked in.
Army +6.5, umm maybe, it's a 4pm kick I got time,

Finally
(I hear you, "STFU already Nasher" lol")|


HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL
Peace on Earth
(and all that other happy horseshit)

Get some football money today folks.

[pologq]

good luck and great write up. i will tail.

[jjgold]

How is weather?

[carolinakid]

37° Dew Point: Barometer: Humidity: Wind Speed: 35 30.13 93 12.7 MPH

Forecast Weather Summary Dec 31 10 AM Dec 31 1 PM Dec 31 4 PM Dec 31 7 PM Dec 31 10 PM 41 ° 45 ° 46 ° 45 ° 49 ° definitely moderate rain chance light rain slight chance light rain chance light rain definitely light rain

Forecast Weather Details Dec 31 10 AM Dec 31 1 PM Dec 31 4 PM Dec 31 7 PM Dec 31 10 PM Dew Point 37 38 40 43 46 Humidity 86 76 80 93 89 Wind Dir NE NE NE

[stevenash]

Double post n/m

[daneblazer]

How is weather?

possibly bad

[stevenash]

good luck and great write up. i will tail.

Thank you sir.

Brevity was never one of my fortes.
('ya think?)

[stevenash]

possibly bad

Clearing out by mid afternoon is what I understand.

[Renegades]

I posted something very similar in another thread. Army secondary can be torched. They only played two spread offenses in cincy and tulane but even those teams are run based first. The rest of their schedule was trash and 4 of those teams run the same offense as them. Triple option is easy for other triple option teams to defend. My concern would be how inconsistent Doege is. And also how slow army plays. Army games are usually 10-12 possessions max combined

[Renegades]

Ive seen army burn 10 mins and only get to midfield

[smoke a bowl]

FWIW I think WV defense does stone wall Army offense today but that's why we gamble lol. GL on your play.

[stevenash]

Ive seen army burn 10 mins and only get to midfield

My concern too.
That's the only concern as I mentioned before both teams can score and 41 is a very reasonable number.

I've seen many of my dad's Navy teams go from the 20 to the 20 in 8 minutes and then shank a FG.

That's the caveat when betting the service academies, and that's why they call it gambling.

I do really like my play today, if it goes south, so be it, wouldn't be the first time.

[Renegades]

If I was West Va I would have 5 wide outs and make army chase their receivers all over the field. And take numerous deep shots. The D backs for army cannot hang

[DwightShrute]

I always enjoy your posts stevenash . Right or wrong. Good call yesterday on OK, I had OK, OK and the over 1H parlay and OK and over as soon as I heard all their receivers were out.

I am having a tough time on this Army game. Right now my gut says under and I am on a 9 game winning streak. Last 2 games for Army were a 15-0 win and a 10-7 win. I am going with my gut and under 20.5 1H. Maybe we will both cash it.

Good luck.

[stevenash]

If I was West Va I would have 5 wide outs and make army chase their receivers all over the field. And take numerous deep shots. The D backs for army cannot hang

The other thought that crossed my mind before placing my wager was if Army does go down say 20 points and Anderson has to throw the ball he's more than likely to get picked.

Look at his numbers when he has double digit pass attempts in a game (well only twice this season)
But it wasn't pretty

[stevenash]

I always enjoy your posts stevenash . Right or wrong. Good call yesterday on OK, I had OK, OK and the over 1H parlay and OK and over as soon as I heard all their receivers were out.

I am having a tough time on this Army game. Right now my gut says under and I am on a 9 game winning streak. Last 2 games for Army were a 15-0 win and a 10-7 win. I am taking the under 20.5 1H. Maybe we will both cash it.

Good luck.

9 game winning streaks are fun but scary.
You're on this high but on the other hand you know it can't last forever and you're waiting for the other shoe to drop and it won't........
Been there.

I always welcome a respectable fade, I am not automatic, I look at 'em, I analyze 'em, and if I like 'em I'll bet 'em and God knows I will tell you why.

Doesn't always make me right.

Good news is if you're fade is good and I lose, you win and I'll still be just fine,

Best of luck Dwight and Happy New year to you and your loved ones.

[DwightShrute]

9 game winning streaks are fun but scary.
You're on this high but on the other hand you know it can't last forever and you're waiting for the other shoe to drop and it won't........
Been there.

I always welcome a respectable fade, I am not automatic, I look at 'em, I analyze 'em, and if I like 'em I'll bet 'em and God knows I will tell you why.

Doesn't always make me right.

Good news is if you're fade is good and I lose, you win and I'll still be just fine,

Best of luck Dwight and Happy New year to you and your loved ones.

ya man, all things come to and end eventually. We are just talking sports like we should be.

I will be happy with a 17-3 Lead at halftime and the something like 31-27 final.

Cheers

[cincinnatikid513]

so basically alabama will score more points by themselves than these 2 teams combined

[carolinakid]

i just got this and it no play from me, play at your own risk

Steam-Play Alert

12/31/20 08:13:03am Pacific Time

College Football: Game 211 West Virginia -7½

[killawookie]

Like the last 9 bowl games have gone over. Trend isn't going stop as team/players want those stats and why play defense?

[Renegades]

Like the last 9 bowl games have gone over. Trend isn't going stop as team/players want those stats and why play defense?

5 straight unders followed by 6 straight overs

[sackdud]

stevenash


never seen this guy win a game here. im pounding the UNDER for the MAX

thanks for OKlahoma btw. lol this guy

[DwightShrute]

stevenash


never seen this guy win a game here. im pounding the UNDER for the MAX

thanks for OKlahoma btw. lol this guy

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ke-forest.html

good luck.

[super mario 48]

I really like wvu here

team total over also!!!

[super mario 48]

i really like wvu here

team total over also!!!

team total over 25 and a half

[sackdud]

41 is so so so so very suspect

[stevenash]

Why is Tulsa playing in the Armed Forces Bowl and not the Liberty Bowl and why is Army playing in the Liberty Bowl and not the Armed Forces Bowl?

[smoke a bowl]

41 is so so so so very suspect

Suspect how? What does that even mean? Just asking.

[sackdud]

Suspect how? What does that even mean? Just asking.

it means i GUARANTEE the first penalty of the game is a holding call on the offense

[sportsguy04]

Army +points looks great

[pavyracer]

Army has 1 completed pass in the last 2 games and that was for no yard gain. This game is going to be low scoring.

[navyblue81]

Lot of rain in Memphis. Not clearing. Was gonna go over too, but not liking that radar.

[Orbison]

Army +points looks great

what number did you take with them?

[stake1]

Can get Over 37' +100, live right now

[Orbison]

35.5 -116 now