[navyblue81]

Notre Dame vs. Alabama
My Play: ND Team Total OVER 21.5

First of all, I think this spread is big time inflated. Squares are all over Alabama, but the sharps are on the Irish. Alabama would have been around a 12 to 14-point favorite pre-Championship week. Too much is being put on the perception of one game...actually really one quarter of the Notre Dame-Clemson game (the 2nd quarter where it spiraled out of control). From a spread perspective, I think it’s Notre Dame or no play. My only fear if I had ND and the points is this game getting out of control late and a backdoor Bama cover, but I think this game actually stays a lot closer than people think for 2 to 3 quarters.

That said, I do think Notre Dame gets over 21.5 points fairly easily. I do like the Notre Dame offensive matchup against Alabama’s defense. Notre Dame’s offense did not match up as well against Clemson’s D, although if you watch that game, they moved the ball very well early on. Their first three drives, though, ended in a field goal, a missed kick from 20 yards, and a failed fourth down conversion which Avery Davis dropped and probably would have been a TD to give them the lead. I believe if ND scores on that second drive and gets ahead of Clemson 10-0, it's a different game. That was a huge momentum shift that seemed to deflate the Irish.

But Alabama’s defense has some very concerning holes. If you watched them play vs. Florida, Ole Miss, and Georgia this year, they have some big weaknesses on that side of the ball. If Ole Miss can run up nearly 300 yards on the ground against them, Notre Dame surely can as well with that offensive line and running game which is among the best in the country. They also have a very efficient passing offense that can move the chains. In the end, talent does take over. I’m not sure Notre Dame’s secondary can stop Alabama’s passing offense which is where I think this game gets out of control, and Bama is just overall more talented on paper which is a tribute to Kelly to getting ND here given how few 4/5-star recruits they have compared to the other three playoff team....but I do think ND is going to try to slow the game down by running it and moving the chains. Would not be surprised to see this very close at halftime. ND should hit over 21.5 points no problem. I see a 41-27 kind of game with Bama pulling away late.

Alabama 41, Notre Dame 27



Clemson -6.5 vs. Ohio State
Play: Clemson -6.5

I’m trying really hard to find a reason to take Ohio State. The one silver lining could be Trey Sermon at running back who is light years better than Master Teague. But Ohio State doesn’t have the players they did a year ago, particularly on defense. Missing Chase Young is glaring. The pass rush isn't there like it was last year and the secondary has struggled, especially in their games against Rutgers, Penn State, and Indiana who all moved the ball pretty well on them. Dobbins missing is huge as well. He was an asset in the passing game coming out of the backfield. They miss that this year.

Personally, I think Clemson at full strength is the best team in the country, and when it becomes a Clemson-Alabama championship, I am pounding the shit out of Clemson. This is eerily similar to 2018 where Alabama is the more hyped team, but Clemson is the more complete team. Clemson may may not be as good defensively as 2018, but they're better offensively and they don't have any real holes like I think Alabama does.I just don’t see any way in which Ohio State slows down the three-headed monster of Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Amari Rodgers.

Unlike the Notre Dame game, I think this game does get out of control early. Lawrence will have a field day on Ohio State secondary that got shredded by Indiana and should have lost that game if not for dumb Indiana turnovers. Clemson doesn’t turn the ball over like Indiana. This gets ugly.

Clemson 44, Ohio State 20



Cincinnati at Georgia -7

This game is about momentum. Georgia has it. Cincinnati’s only played once in something like 5 or 6 weeks, and that was a nailbiter against Tulsa on their home field. George would destroy Tulsa. This game’s in Atlanta against a Georgia team that has found its groove. Listen, Cincinnati is a great story, but they have played ZERO competition this year. They had to battle it out to beat UCF who is dreadful, as BYU proved. This is nothing more than a talent mismatch.

That said, it is a bowl game so tread lightly. But if Georgia brings their A-game and motivation, they steamroll here.

Georgia 38, Cincinnati 21

[Renegades]

Notre Dame will be the same as always. In these big games vs teams they cannot out muscle up front, it will hinge on Ian Book. If Book cannot hit plays downfield, Alabama will load the box and stuff their run. Kelly’s offense is run based and when they get in these games vs teams they cant blow off the ball they always seem to struggle. Its hard to know what you’ll get from Book.