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NEP@NYJ QB Prop Bets and Game Thoughts.
The QB Prop Bet totals are interesting.
Depending on where you book your bets the total passing yards for each of the two QB's tonight (Joe Flaco and Cam Newton) are pretty the same, my book (Heritage) has 209.5 for Newton and 210.5 for Flaco.
This is where the geek in me takes over.
When betting individual QB total yards in any game the magic number you start out with is always 200 yards.
It is never a good idea to bet under 200 yards on a QB in any given game UNLESS you are a run first pass second QB.
The two prolific run first pass second QB's in the NFL are Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.
Look at the individual total yards gained from any QB in the NFL
A full slate of games (16) if all 32 starting QB's are starting that week, of the 32 omitting Jackson and Newton because they are not considered a throwing QB's of the 30 remaining I guarantee you at least 26 of the 30 thrown for more than 200 yards. Look for yourself if you don't believe me, but trust me I am a database geek, I research these things.
Case in point.
There were 12 games played yesterday.
Of the 24 starting QB's, 23 of them threw for over 200 yards.
Which of the 24 starting QB's did not thrown for over 200 yards? Win valuable prizes.
The correct answer would be Lamar Jackson, why? Because that's not who he is, it's not what he does.
And it's like that every week, week in and week out.
Unless you are Jackson or Newton or you are a QB that is starting but is having trouble with a minor injury that hampers your throwing, or a starting QB who is playing with out a feature TE or a feature WR that gets 10 targets a game you are begging for trouble if you think he's not going to pass for at least 200 yards.
Even though I think and the SIM projection think Newton should go 20 for 31 and 220 passing yards tonight, I'm passing (pardon the what I think is a very good pun) on the Newton prop here.
I am betting that Joe Flaco passes for over 210 yards tonight.
Flaco gets his go to wide receiver back tonight (Jamison Crowder) who gets 10 targets a game, every game, and about 60 reception yardage a game, every game.
The past two weeks Flaco averaged only 192 yards, there's a reason for that, he did not have Jamison.
With Jamison Flaco goes for about 232 yards give or take, without him maybe 206.
Joe Flaco according to my databases and the other databases I use that does these sort of things better than me say Flaco goes 22 for 34 tonight with 232 yards.
One last thing, I checked at 7pm the sports news wires on the status of Jamieson, all indications are he's starting despite the Q next to his name.
If he's a late second scratch don't shoot me, as of now he's in.
Flaco OVER 210.5 passing yards is my prop play.
In regards to the side and total.
I'm leaning over 42 points, and I am leaning Jets getting a generous 8.5 points.
Those are leans right now, no plays as of yet and if I change my mind the bet will be small.
jackbo gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts
