[carolinakid]

11/05/20 01:16:40pm Pacific

College Football: Game 397-398

11/05 01:16 PM PST College Football GAME #397-398 LOUISIANA TECH vs. NORTH TEXAS has been postponed due to COVID-19 cases

[carolinakid]

College Football: Game 365-366

11/05 12:09 PM PST College Football GAME #365-366 WASHINGTON vs CALIFORNIA has been cancelled due to Covid-19. The game will not be made up and has been declared a no contest

[KVB]

Unreal.

Games dropping left and right due to the Kung Flu. I've lost 5 triggers so far this week.

I analyzed those steam moves you posted from don best CK, for the most part they are using Pinny lines and I can tell you from which books they were declaring steam.

If anyone wants any of the moves broken down, or to see any subsequent moves, let me know.

One more thing, some of those steam trigger lines are false, and it's interesting that the "mistaken" lines will involve key numbers. If they are using those lines to track results, then the red flag I mention is legitimate.

Again let me know if anyone wants a more accurate picture or a summary of why don best chose to to declare steam moves and why they used the lines the do.

It's always good to scrutinize information and like I said before I even realized there was a db hyperlink, if they are coming form line services, there is usually some messing with lines (often its using some steam onto lines or steam off lines) but this one clearly had the wrong line and dates...

steam football plays

11/03/20 10:18:18am	11/04/20 07:00pm	293	Buffalo U	No Illinois	-10-125

Result didn't matter but DB is definitely doing something wrong there, as suspected.

I'm not trying to discourage you from posting info you want here ck, I'm just letting you know that scrutinizing that info is nevera bad idea.

[carolinakid]

np, like i said i just putting out the info as i get it.gl tonite there (ck)

[carolinakid]

11/05/20 02:59:37pm Pacific
NFL: Game 301-302			Injury	Status	GP		Att/Gm	Yds/Gm	TD	Fumb	Rec
Green Bay Packers	RB	Aaron Jones	Calf	Probable	5		15.0	77.8	7	1	4
is upgraded to probable Thursday vs San Francisco

[KVB]

Stafford for the Detriot Lions is still listed as out but ESPN insists that if he keeps testing negative he could play Sunday. They say 5 days of negative tests but he starte quarantine on Wed.

So I don't know. He tested negative today.

[carolinakid]

11/06/20 06:45:20am Pacific

College Football: Game 383-384

11/06 06:45 AM PST College Football GAME #383-384 TEX SAN ANTONIO vs RICE has been postponed due to COVID-19 issues at TEX SAN ANTONIO.

[clockwise1965]

He's playing.

[carolinakid]

11/06/20 09:37:06am Pacific

College Football: Game 385-386

11/06 09:37 AM PST College Football GAME #385-386 Tomorrow's game between Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte has been postponed due to COVID-19 cases and contact tracing within the 49ers program.

[stake1]

Stafford for the Detriot Lions is still listed as out but ESPN insists that if he keeps testing negative he could play Sunday. They say 5 days of negative tests but he starte quarantine on Wed.

So I don't know. He tested negative today.

No practice at all this week either

[stake1]

Mike Florio:

Currently, 15 teams have issues with the virus, in one form or another. In no particular order, they are the Ravens, Texans, Colts, Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Bears, 49ers, Cardinals, Eagles, Raiders, Lions, Falcons, and Dolphins.

[stake1]

Mccaffrey looks good to go

[KVB]

ARIZONA/UTAH is off too.

Another victim of the Kung Flu.

I had the Zona moneyline in a two TD upset.

[KVB]

I'm now showing 10 games off this weekend and 9 Fund triggers that will not play.

Two of those triggers are Visiting Dog Fund plays...the sharpest spread bets I post.

Fuk.

[jtoler]

I'm now showing 10 games off this weekend and 9 Fund triggers that will not play.

Two of those triggers are Visiting Dog Fund plays...the sharpest spread bets I post.

Fuk.

u think you’ll ever print a gambling dictionary defining the terminology used for the various funds?

[KVB]

u think you’ll ever print a gambling dictionary defining the terminology used for the various funds?

Every Fund has descrciption with a link to the original description with every summary...

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation.

There will be no moneylines in this Fund and the target circle and number of plays will vary each week as the stacking forecast methods will be enhanced by different factors, many of them determined by the ever changing market. The target circle will be much wider than that of the ATS/ML Fund and as always it is expected to be a grind.

The factors and thresholds being used in this fund, while they have been known to be volatile within a season (making it ideal for a Total Return Fund) move, have produced double digit ROI’s over thousands of plays. Some of these factors, over more than a dozen years, have been positive to the forecast enhancement every year. One major factor has shown recent weakness, and over the years that has been followed by major success, every time.

From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where it’s at in college football and we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund....

In the next post I offer an example...

Let me make up for it by giving some real analysis. I mentioned that it's not always about the road team but could be about the home team's failure...

Central Michigan +14 over N. Illinois:

The stacking forecast has N. Illinois winning with 27 points to C Mich's 20 points, but the line is 14! You see, Nilly hasn't scored shit in the last two outings. We have ample evidence over years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast. In all fairness, the public gauge shows Northern Illinois winning 28-20, seemingly mitigating the theory, but not the line. The public gauge is looked at but not used in producing the play.

Akron +21.5 over Northwestern:

We have the same situation with Northwestern as bettors may be looking to see their team bounce as well from a rough week. The stacking forecast shows N'Western winning with 38 points to Akron's 16 points but when we factor that situation into the line we see a failure on Northwestern's part here.

The public gauge shows a 27 point game and confirms the theory behind the numbers. Again the public gauge is not used in any way in making the decisions for this Fund. This Fund seeks predictive behaviors, the public gauge is non-predictive.

One caveat here. Before this Fund began there were 4 plays that factored in this situation for the home team; those plays went 3-1. I do not expect bets that are in part arrived using this metric to perform at such a high level. There could some volatility but these bets have a near 60% expectation of winning.

We are exploiting the nature of the bettors when dealing with home teams and favorites here, it's a nature that hasn't changed, perhaps ever....

I do that for all the Funds, including the different scenarios that cause Contrarian triggers.

[KVB]

u think you’ll ever print a gambling dictionary defining the terminology used for the various funds?

I mentioned that NCAAF Fund is the sharpest spread bet I post, the only other one that might be sharper year in and year out, against the close and units is the NCAAB Technical Value strateigies...

The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund will track NCAAB plays derived from a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by a few technical, statistical tweaks. The forecast with these adjustments, when compared to the market, give us another decent spread opportunity throughout the seasons.

This Fund will also be comprised of underdogs, exploiting some of the public thirst for favorites, but gets its plays mainly from focusing more on the weightings of a few specific areas. These areas include defensive stats like field goal %, forced turnovers per game, opponents free throws, etc, and combine them with things like pace to find those teams that are just better than the number indicates and control the game more than the betting market realizes....

So yeah, I define the Funds pretty well.

[stake1]

ARIZONA/UTAH is off too.

Another victim of the Kung Flu.

I had the Zona moneyline in a two TD upset.

Sorry man. That really sucks. These conferences starting this late? I think they made a mistake doing so

[KVB]

Sorry man. That really sucks. These conferences starting this late? I think they made a mistake doing so

They left no room for postponement or making up games, but have a pretty strict testing regime.

I get the feeling this is going to get worse for these conferences. The post season is going to be ugly with good teams not having enough games to get in.

The NFL, like that post above, keeps games going, like last night, but they are getting more and more cases on half the teams.

Every week it gets worse it seems for both leagues.

[KVB]

We know the Big 10 had a 21 day period and for Pac 12 teams contact tracing can screw the whole deal...

"The decision was made following the Pac-12's football game cancellation policy as Utah does not have the minimum number of scholarship student-athletes available for the game due to the positive cases and resulting isolation of additional football student-athletes under contact tracing protocols," the university statement reads.

https://www.ksl.com/article/50044330...ue-to-covid-19

[stake1]

They left no room for postponement or making up games, but have a pretty strict testing regime.

I get the feeling this is going to get worse for these conferences. The post season is going to be ugly with good teams not having enough games to get in.

The NFL, like that post above, keeps games going, like last night, but they are getting more and more cases on half the teams.

Every week it gets worse it seems for both leagues.

Very tight scheduling window, and I agree it is almost impossible for any Pac12 teams to qualify and the same case can be made for Osu in the conference of quitters. At some point, the calendar is going to run out

[jtoler]

I mentioned that NCAAF Fund is the sharpest spread bet I post, the only other one that might be sharper year in and year out, against the close and units is the NCAAB Technical Value strateigies...



So yeah, I define the Funds pretty well.

[SBR Tony]

I thought I saw a link for matchups??
maybe thinking of another DB thread

[cincinnatikid513]

note to self do not pick college football games early in week for pick 6 contest

[KVB]

note to self do not pick college football games early in week for pick 6 contest

This week we’ve lost 1/5 of the Saturday games, that’s probably going to affect a lot of people in the contest, but Wisky Looks like the only ranked team. Hopefully they find a way to let posters pick a different game but it might not be practical at this stage. I don’t know.

[carolinakid]

yes never play football games until the day of the game imo.

[stake1]

Cowboys name Garrett Gilbert as starter vs Pittsburgh

[carolinakid]

11/07/20 10:54:23am Pacific
NFL: Game 475-476			Injury	Status	GP	Att/Gm	Comp/Gm	Yds/Gm	TD	Int	Rating
New York Jets	QB	Sam Darnold	Shoulder	Doubtful	6	31.8	18.7	174.2	3	6	65.9
is downgraded to doubtful Monday vs New England

[carolinakid]

11/07/20 10:59:48am Pacific
NFL: Game 469-470			Injury	Status	GP		Att/Gm	Yds/Gm	TD	Fumb	Rec
Dallas Cowboys	RB	Ezekiel Elliott	Hamstring	Doubtful	8		16.5	65.1	6	5	4
is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs Pittsburgh

[carolinakid]

Steam-Play Alert

11/07/20 11:01:59am Pacific Time

NFL: Game 475 New England -8

[carolinakid]

Steam-Play Alert

11/07/20 11:06:56am Pacific Time

College Football: Game 403 Tennessee U/Arkansas - OVER 51½

[Buckandadime]

Steam-Play Alert

11/07/20 11:06:56am Pacific Time

College Football: Game 403 Tennessee U/Arkansas - OVER 51½

I was leaning the opposite way there..
Wait and see..
Thank you CK..

[carolinakid]

just posting what i get, play the steam at your own risk guys.......

[carolinakid]

11/07/20 11:30:37am Pacific
CFB: Game 319-320			Injury	Status	Att		Comp	Yds	TD	Int	Rating
Pittsburgh	QB	Kenny Pickett	Ankle	Probable	180		108	1389	8	3	136.2
is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Florida State

[carolinakid]

Steam-Play Alert11/07/20 03:48:20pm Pacific TimeCollege Football: Game 402 Notre Dame +5