1. 10-29-20 10:55 AM #1
    stevenash
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    Tonight's NFL game: Great night for Prop bets. Analysis and discussion.

    I've been having more success this season betting props than betting totals and sides.
    I'm stuck inside all day not so much COVID as we're getting croaked with Zeta rain, and it's going to get heavier all day.
    So, with too much time on my hands I have put way too much time into this/

    Tonight's game is an offense lovers dream.
    You got the Falcons with all that offense and that crappy pass defense vs. Carolina who could really exploit that crappy defense.

    Let's discuss.

    QB
    Matt Ryan - Atlanta
    Teddy Bridgewater - Carolina

    Using three SIM modules
    Matt Ryan should go 26 for 39 with 284 yards thrown
    Teddy Bridgewater should go 25 for 36 with 282 yards thrown

    Bridgewater is not a deep ball passer, however the Falcons are across the board without a shadow of a doubt the worst defensive passing team in the NFL.
    Teddy will not accumulate yardage on the deep ball, but should on those flair passes and chunk yardage pass plays.
    Question is will he surpass the 282.5 yards the book is offering?
    I would not be shocked if Bridgewater winds up with say 308 yards, but I'm not betting on it.
    282.5 probably will go over, but once again I am not betting on it.

    Matt Ryan Falcon QB is a Hall of Fame QB, love him or hate him he's a Hall of Famer.
    He leads the NFL in pass yardage, what's important is he's only thrown 3 picks all season.
    Atlanta has two game breaking wideouts, a RB that can catch the ball out of the backfield, all sorts of weapons.
    He averages 40 pass attempts 310 yards per game.

    Here's the important part.
    Carolina's pass defense is not very good.
    And the more you dig the worse it gets.
    I did not realize the Panthers only have six sacks which is rock bottom, dead last in the NFL.
    Carolina only 27 QB hits, which is 29th in the NFL almost dead last.
    And they only have four INT's.
    Here, see for yourself.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...tm#all_passing

    If Carolina can't hit or sack Ryan or pick him off how are you going to stop him or Jones, or Ridley and the rest.
    Book (Heritage) is offering over 281.5, I think Ryan goes for 300.
    That's my play.

    I have opinions on RB props and others, we have all day to talk about that too.
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  2. 10-29-20 11:12 AM #2
    adila1401
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    Weather, turf will be a factor tonight big storm last night

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  3. 10-29-20 11:20 AM #3
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by adila1401 View Post
    Weather, turf will be a factor tonight big storm last night



    https://weather.com/weather/hourbyho...ec3834a25fcaba
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  4. 10-29-20 11:29 AM #4
    Machba
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    Over hits no problem tonight
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  5. 10-29-20 11:34 AM #5
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machba View Post
    Over hits no problem tonight
    You would think.

    Bridgewater should get his.
    Factor in Gurley and Carolina's RB Mike Davis is a great fill in for McCaffrey.

    If you can get a good number on Davis total rushing yards, bang that, he could go for 80 yards tonight with a truckload of touches.
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  6. 10-29-20 04:42 PM #6
    Buckandadime
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    You would think.

    Bridgewater should get his.
    Factor in Gurley and Carolina's RB Mike Davis is a great fill in for McCaffrey.

    If you can get a good number on Davis total rushing yards, bang that, he could go for 80 yards tonight with a truckload of touches.
    What do you think about Gurley over 69.5 yds vs a defense that gives up 4.9 per?
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  7. 10-29-20 04:54 PM #7
    sackdud
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    my book has a new thing "prop builder"

    i took m.davis more rushing yards than gurley +100

    i also took m.davis over 59.5 -114


    i think those are good bets
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  8. 10-29-20 04:55 PM #8
    sackdud
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    steve you can get Matt ice -115 more pass yards then teddy B
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  9. 10-29-20 04:57 PM #9
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    damn . Didnt know Nasher be posting like this here in PT
    Dont take this dude for granted you all ,hes in beast mode 24/7

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  10. 10-29-20 05:45 PM #10
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buckandadime View Post
    What do you think about Gurley over 69.5 yds vs a defense that gives up 4.9 per?
    Yes, I like both running backs props over.
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  11. 10-29-20 05:47 PM #11
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by sackdud View Post
    steve you can get Matt ice -115 more pass yards then teddy B
    I saw that, thing is I don’t trust that putrid Atlanta pass defense.
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  12. 10-29-20 05:49 PM #12
    HAPPY BOY
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    love the Birds (+1.5) easy $$
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  13. 10-29-20 06:03 PM #13
    stevenash
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    ^
    Agreed.

    As a sports analytics geek this is a tremendous props bet night.
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  14. 10-29-20 06:05 PM #14
    johnnyvegas13
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    Like falcons 1h for an action play

    they often lead at half
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  15. 10-29-20 06:18 PM #15
    Allure
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    Line suggests Atlanta.

    However disagree on Matt Ryan being a HOF. He hasn't won shit even in these times where the league is a passing league and offensive pass interference calls are given like free candy.
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  16. 10-29-20 06:21 PM #16
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Line suggests Atlanta.

    However disagree on Matt Ryan being a HOF. He hasn't won shit even in these times where the league is a passing league and offensive pass interference calls are given like free candy.
    Disagree but always respect your opinion.

    It's not always about the rings, look at the categories he's dominated during his career.

    Ernie Banks is a Hall of Famer, yet has no rings.

    Anyway, best of luck tonight.
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  17. 10-29-20 06:27 PM #17
    pologq
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    nash with more valuable insight, thanks man
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  18. 10-29-20 06:30 PM #18
    hawkeye 16
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    Great write up Nasher. Thanks. Will tail for a bit. Best of luck. We all know there are no givens, but I like it. We are gamblers after all.
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  19. 10-29-20 06:38 PM #19
    stevenash
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    ^
    Thanks

    I'm on Ryan over 282.5 yards
    Over Davis 59.5 yards.
    Falcons + 1
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  20. 10-29-20 09:00 PM #20
    sackdud
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    matthew ice with over 200 first half yards wow
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  21. 10-29-20 10:28 PM #21
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    2-1

    Would of swept the board if Ryan got what , 2 more throwing yards

    Good plays Nash

    Cashed 2 units myself on Falcons
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  22. 10-29-20 10:39 PM #22
    hawkeye 16
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    All I needed was one more completion for 3 yards.
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  23. 10-29-20 10:40 PM #23
    stevenash
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    2 out of 3 ain’t bad.
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  24. 10-29-20 10:49 PM #24
    Jerm3085
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    Should’ve had that Ryan prop, Hurst dropped that pass when he was wide open, would’ve had at least 8-10yds
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  25. 10-29-20 10:59 PM #25
    hawkeye 16
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    That's gambling. I've been having some really bad beats lately. It seems like every penalty/dropped pass/goofy play has went against me.

    I know we all remember the bad ones and forget when we get lucky, but man I feel I'm being like I'm anally raped just abut every day.
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