[44 Mag]

BOL today Mike !!!!

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Mike you are Golden I tailed the over and the AZ play chargers down to 4 too late on that train Good Luck to one of the Best on Here

[pimike]

BOL today Mike !!!!

Thanks Mag and Harry.

[RonT73]

On all this with you Mike. Gonna ride Denver down the tubes. Bet it when you posted the plays.

[pimike]

On all this with you Mike. Gonna ride Denver down the tubes. Bet it when you posted the plays.

Been a tough week. Key injuries in game on Thanksgiving now this.

What can I do. Lol

[KVB]

Been a tough week. Key injuries in game on Thanksgiving now this.

What can I do. Lol

Seriously. And I think it's only going to get worse as we move forward.

I can't believe the changes COVID forces on us weekly.

It's almost unworkable.

[pimike]

Seriously. And I think it's only going to get worse as we move forward.

I can't believe the changes COVID forces on us weekly.

It's almost unworkable.

Agree

Wouldn’t be surprised the cancel sports agin.

[KVB]

Agree

Wouldn’t be surprised the cancel sports agin.

I'm losing half my triggers by Saturday in the cylcical Funds. There's no sturcture to the markets.

I don't see how Hoops is going to be much better.

[Vene1616]

Can the Chargers please just go for 2 every time they score a TD

[Vene1616]

Agree

Wouldn’t be surprised the cancel sports agin.

Are games going to be played at SoFi? It's outside of Santa Clara county correct? So the 49ers could use it, in theory?

[Allure]

Cleveland is just so bad. How do they have a winning record ffs?

[pavyracer]

Tough day today pimike. Most of the games were flip coins to cover or not cover the spread.

Get them back next week.

[kmarinouofm]

I dont know what makes me wanna puke more that chargers loss or the cardinals loss

All three early games should of hit

[Hot Jerry]

Cleveland is just so bad. How do they have a winning record ffs?

- they going to playoff !!

[pimike]

I dont know what makes me wanna puke more that chargers loss or the cardinals loss

All three early games should of hit

Yep

Chargers have the worse coach in NFL. This guy actually had the field goal team coming out with 3 seconds left.

Arizona missing winning field goal

1-2 early games.

Looking at a potential 2nd half play with Tampa vs Chiefs.

[pimike]

Passing on 2nd half.

[ARCHIVADO98]

up a lot why push it

GOOD DECISION SIR

[Pick'nParlays]

We got Zaned

[Hot Jerry]

What are u talking about - winning ???? When and where ?? Wouldnt be for bad luck wouldnt have luck at all . Winning , whats that ??

[aveeno]

Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.

[KVB]

Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.

It's all noise aveeno, mike, like a few of us, knows what he's doing, that's why he's overcoming the noise, even if it's just positive variance.

You can not judge whether or not a play was the "right side" once the game has started. That input isn't relevant anymore. It's like when posters say the line was "sharp" after the final score is in because it pushed or had the margin exactly. That's not the purpose of the line.

I hope that makes sense.

[44 Mag]

Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.

The "right side" is winning, and nobody knows more about that than Mike. He is one of the best, if not the best on here. You've been here what??? 3 days now??? We all appreciate the input. BOL on future endeavors.
Glad to have you with us. PS; never go by me. Just a scrub on here.

[KVB]

Deciding the "right side" of a bet based on outcome is poor strategy.

Mainly because it's the wrong way to approach probability based decision making with a comparison to offered odds, all of which has variance.

That's the best I can put it.

Here's an example.

If two bettors bet a coin flip head to head, multipole times, and one puts up $1 while the other puts up $1.01 on each flip, the bettor who stands to win the $1.01 is on the right side, every time, assuming profit is the goal.

No matter where an individual flip lands, the right side is the one that pays the extra penny in the 50-50 odds.

He could put up his $1 against the other guy's $1.01 and lose 10 times in a row, he is still betting the right side, every time.

Don't let variance, which is a calculable mathematical fact, change that.

[pimike]

Looking back at this thread and the posted teams it is amazing how many brutally close calls and bad breaks there are and yet overall the thread has a positive ROI. I know, I know...everyone can say the same thing regarding their gambling choices being so close but I don't remember a time seeing so many plays that were on the "right side" that ended up losing. For example, Chubbs stepping out of bounds.

Glad I found this thread. Keep up the awesome work PIMIKE and thanks for sharing your thoughts/picks. It is very much appreciated.

Appreciate you noticing.. 5 straight weeks of profit right here in this thread. Yet we get those that like to dwell on the one bad week.

Lol


Again thanks for the kind write up!

[pimike]

Ok let’s try to start another 5 + weeks of profits.


Tonight Monday night we have the Seahawks vs Eagles.

Eagles have so much talent and had many injuries. However they are
healthy now more than they have been. Problem is they cant seem to get out of their own way. Lol

Now as for Seattle they don’t have a good defense plus they are traveling across country on the road. Seattle is clearly the better team.no question. However Philly remembers them beating them last year in the playoffs and this is a revenge factor here.

Seriously, the book is giving me a td here tonight with a home team healthy?

I’ll take that!

EAGLES + 7 -133 BAS. Yes I bought 6.5 to 7

Good luck whatever you decide.

I will tell you, it looks like I might have one of my biggest plays coming this next week. We shall see, Covid -19 aka the China Virus could change everything, so I have to be careful and not post so early.

[carolinakid]

GL TONITE (ck)

[KVB]

...EAGLES + 7 -133 BAS. Yes I bought 6.5 to 7...

Good Luck Mike!!

I'm on Philly +5, bought on the 25th.

Hopefully we both hit.

[QuantumLeap]

Ok let’s try to start another 5 + weeks of profits.


Tonight Monday night we have the Seahawks vs Eagles.

Eagles have so much talent and had many injuries. However they are
healthy now more than they have been. Problem is they cant seem to get out of their own way. Lol

Now as for Seattle they don’t have a good defense plus they are traveling across country on the road. Seattle is clearly the better team.no question. However Philly remembers them beating them last year in the playoffs and this is a revenge factor here.

Seriously, the book is giving me a td here tonight with a home team healthy?

I’ll take that!

EAGLES + 7 -133 BAS. Yes I bought 6.5 to 7

Good luck whatever you decide.

I will tell you, it looks like I might have one of my biggest plays coming this next week. We shall see, Covid -19 aka the China Virus could change everything, so I have to be careful and not post so early.

Yes!! Adding another 2 units.

Thanks Mike!

[jjgold]

Mike you getting your plays from Walters??

[BIGDAY]

Let’s cash!

[BigdaddyQH]

I'm losing half my triggers by Saturday in the cylcical Funds. There's no sturcture to the markets.

I don't see how Hoops is going to be much better.

Chichens**t. We all knoe that you do not wager real money, so it really does not madder, does it? Do your wife a favor. Increase your life insurance policy, if you can even get one with your mental history.

[BeatTheJerk]

Chichens**t. We all knoe that you do not wager real money, so it really does not madder, does it? Do your wife a favor. Increase your life insurance policy, if you can even get one with your mental history.

”I got heat for niggas’ like you” ~ Jody

[44 Mag]

Deciding the "right side" of a bet based on outcome is poor strategy.

Mainly because it's the wrong way to approach probability based decision making with a comparison to offered odds, all of which has variance.

That's the best I can put it.

Here's an example.

If two bettors bet a coin flip head to head, multipole times, and one puts up $1 while the other puts up $1.01 on each flip, the bettor who stands to win the $1.01 is on the right side, every time, assuming profit is the goal.

No matter where an individual flip lands, the right side is the one that pays the extra penny in the 50-50 odds.

He could put up his $1 against the other guy's $1.01 and lose 10 times in a row, he is still betting the right side, every time.

Don't let variance, which is a calculable mathematical fact, change that.

So, I guess losing can be calculated?? Who would want to????
Deciding the "right side" of a bet based on outcome is poor strategy.

I wish I knew the outcome before wagering

So losing is ok, based on your strategy. Good Lord.....

[KVB]

...So losing is ok, based on your strategy. Good Lord...

Of course it's ok.

It's unrealistic to think you will win every bet you make.

I make 100's of +EV bets a year, I would not expect to win them all.

That would be a ridiculous expectation and mathematically impossible.

Read my example again, you have to account for price.

The subject is the right and wrong side of the bet, not whether or not you win or lose the bet. Read my example again.

[KVB]

The "right side" is winning...

I will admit, I posted my example because I read this wrong.

I read this as you saying the right side is the winning side, like the poster before you.

But that's not what you said, you said what I said, that Mike knows what he's doing.

Regardless, my example with a coin flip paying + odds is every bit the explanation necessary for those who don't understand this very essence of sports betting.